Bill Gross on deleveraging
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"Financial assets relative to real assets outperform in such a world as wealth is brought forward and stolen from future years if real growth cannot replicate historical total returns."
Also see in "plain speak"... all this is consistent with the next Kondratieff cycle. It is still not entirely clear to me what the next technology innovation/driver is going to be. Internet? Nano? Bio?... or something more fundamental, like food, water, and clean air?
"Financial assets relative to real assets outperform in such a world as wealth is brought forward and stolen from future years if real growth cannot replicate historical total returns."
Also see in "plain speak"... all this is consistent with the next Kondratieff cycle. It is still not entirely clear to me what the next technology innovation/driver is going to be. Internet? Nano? Bio?... or something more fundamental, like food, water, and clean air?
Personalization is my guess for the next big driver.
Today you can walk into the Harvard Bookstore and print out any one of five million books instantaneously. It won't be long before we can walk into REI and get a body-scan then a custom-made rain jacket instantaneously - or - go to a health-food store where they do a blood test and concoct a custom vitamin pill -or- go to the doctor where they inject personalized nanobots designed to reproduce then rebuild cartilage or remove plaque buildup -or- go to the
In a sense, this is a continuation of what we are already seeing. From a marketing perspective, the beauty of personalization is that people change. When they have something custom-made they feel the need for a new suit when it no longer fits perfectly or a new vitamin when they no longer have the underlying condition that caused them to get the old one. Fewer customers with more wealth demand that companies create new ways to entice obsolescence.
Today you can walk into the Harvard Bookstore and print out any one of five million books instantaneously. It won't be long before we can walk into REI and get a body-scan then a custom-made rain jacket instantaneously - or - go to a health-food store where they do a blood test and concoct a custom vitamin pill -or- go to the doctor where they inject personalized nanobots designed to reproduce then rebuild cartilage or remove plaque buildup -or- go to the
In a sense, this is a continuation of what we are already seeing. From a marketing perspective, the beauty of personalization is that people change. When they have something custom-made they feel the need for a new suit when it no longer fits perfectly or a new vitamin when they no longer have the underlying condition that caused them to get the old one. Fewer customers with more wealth demand that companies create new ways to entice obsolescence.
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Cyberpunk technologies are getting pretty close. "Cyberspace" is old news but synthetic organs, combat droids, battling corporate AIs, and humanoid robots are here or around the corner. Cyborgs are practically here piecemeal in the form of Bluetooth, ECV scooters, smartphones, and/or Google Goggles. If the fiction is right, these developments will coincide with a plutocratic aristocracy using untouchable mega-corporations to rule over a vast depraved underbelly.
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Internet, computing, and their applications in other fields. Even though it's already been predicted, its economic value is enormous and growing. I imagine it's like going back and being able to invest in railroads in 1875, or oil in 1940. We know it's here to stay, and the whole sector is still in its infancy. Other innovations of this magnitude have spawned industries that have remained profitable for hundreds of years. How to play it? Well to each their own on that. My strategy is to keep betting on the known winners and watch for new winners as they emerge.
I'm really hoping that the next big thing is (finally) Space. I know we've all been waiting for the Space Age since the 1960s, but between SpaceX's mission to the ISS later this month ( http://www.space.com/15361-spacex-drago ... ement.html ) and Planetary Resources announcement of a plan to mine asteroids ( http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2074/1 ), maybe it's finally time. I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but man do I want it to happen!
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I think the next big things will be in the field of bioengineering. They are on the cusp of some revolutionary understanding from which innovation will hopefully follow.
But the future is only brighter if humanity believes it will be so, and the Kondratieff cycle suggests that the next stage will not be so serene. Our "next big thing" today is biased by our largely stable environment and uni-polar political world. When that starts to change, we might have more than a technological revolution in the developed world.
But the future is only brighter if humanity believes it will be so, and the Kondratieff cycle suggests that the next stage will not be so serene. Our "next big thing" today is biased by our largely stable environment and uni-polar political world. When that starts to change, we might have more than a technological revolution in the developed world.