Anyone prepping for corona?

[AnalyticalEngine]

How is everyone handling the stir-crazy syndrome that comes with being locked inside? I'm working from home now, and the lack of stimulation is already wearing me thin.

[henrik]

stir-crazy syndrome that comes with being locked inside /.../ lack of stimulation

Books, pushups and situps, and if all else fails, beer.
Is this finally the time when I-types rule the world?

[henrik]

Our equivalent of the the US BLM had to issue a warning today that hiking trails are getting overcrowded, advising people to keep their distance from fellow hikers and choosing less visited sites whenever possible. Apparently it's now harder to find a parking spot at a beginning of a trail than at most department stores.

[theanimal]

How is everyone handling the stir-crazy syndrome that comes with being locked inside?

I'm not sure a board consisting mainly of INTJs is the right place to ask that question.

Take a walk, go for a bike ride, mess around in the garden. Don't stay trapped in your house.

[AnalyticalEngine]

That's the problem because I, too, am INTJ. I've been really trying not to descent into playing video games and instead make the most of this time. It is an opportunity to do some important things, but man I underestimated the challenge in the dramatic routine shift.

[AnalyticalEngine]

It’s a good opportunity to look your inner demons in the eye, the ones that you seem to avoid so much

No worries, that already happens on a daily basis.

[George the original one]

How is everyone handling the stir-crazy syndrome that comes with being locked inside? I'm working from home now, and the lack of stimulation is already wearing me thin.

Since I have acreage, it's pretty easy. I garden and walk to the river in my backyard. And pester my wife! It's my normal retired life.

[Gilberto de Piento]

I'm still taking walks and exercising outside. I just avoid other people. I don't go out much anyway but I do feel restricted right now in a way that is unsettling.

[Alphaville]

I underestimated the challenge in the dramatic routine shift.

we shifted routine cold turkey on day 1 by design and it’s working out great. wake/sleep/meal/exercise times, etc. even changed meal content.

maybe it helps that i’m INTP and therefore thrive when required to improvise. my wife on the other hand thrives on structure, and so i obliged with a quick redesign.

just do it once, and be done, and forget what was. it will go down easier.

i’m looking at some courses of study in the meantime and maybe start a side business... plenty of entertainment there.

[sky]

I love social isolation. It is quiet outside, peaceful. Zero stress, nothing that I need to do. Nobody comes to bother me. I get to play with my plants and research my next project. If the weather is nice, I go for a walk. If not, read a book.

Wait, thats pretty much the same as before social isolation.

Wait till sun rises
Get up
Start coffee
Stretch and exercise
Make breakfast
Eat and drink coffee
Look at internet
Shower
Go outside and see what the weather is like
Make lunch
Maybe do some maintenance or garden work if it is nice out
Walk or ride bike
Nap
Tea
Decide what to do about dinner
Cook, eat
Play a game
Look at internet
Go to bed

[Fish]

Any advice for longer-term preps (that is, moving beyond food and medicine)? We were only expecting a 2-month disruption but it seems like it could go much longer especially if our risk tolerance is lower than the general public.

I am thinking it is prudent to stock up on longer-term consumables e.g. batteries, filters. A power and/or internet outage would take out both sources of income since we are WFH. So maybe a backup source of electricity and internet?

We also have a basic set of tools but almost no parts (buying stuff as needed when a DIY repair is needed). This might be ok if supply lines remain open. But need a contingency plan for critical infrastructure.

[Sclass]

I’ve naively ruled out long term prep. It made it easier. Kind of like dropping complex terms in a mathematical equation you cannot solve. I tried to use my gut that these things don’t last that long. I’m cautiously positive about China’s reported cases this morning. The Chinese government has been pretty dishonest about this from the start but I’m open to believing that quarantine, experimental drug therapies and citizen paranoia (mask acceptance) has brought the spread to a halt. Wait what am I saying?!? Well, I want to believe the numbers they post.

I’m trying to imagine their citizens eating a government issued Chloroquine tablet each day whether they are healthy or not. Hindering the nCOVID invasion into their cells. Like a bunch of British colonialists sipping gin and tonics in Africa with semi-malaria resistance. There may be ways to slow infection rates that are not being shared.

Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan seem to be getting the upper hand on things as well. Like I said about the mathematical models, there are other terms that stop runaway exponential growth in real life. Nothing obeys dN/dt = kN forever. So I’m actually positive on a return to normalcy in a few months.

I guess I had this thought exercise this morning as I watched the Italian video about how we were warned and this doesn’t have to be us told by Italians to Americans. What if it is? How will Italy play out? I can see a situation in the big US metros where hospitals get jammed. Treatment stops. Weak victims lose their lives. Then all those spoiled spring breakers provide herd immunity. Because of the nasty nature of the exponential this may come to its chaotic conclusion quickly.

It reminds me of designing feedback systems. I’ve had some pretty dramatic positive feedback runaways happen on the bench. In a blink currents run away exponentially and the circuit explodes, wires glow white then evaporate, or click” goes a breaker. There is always a limit.

Then business as usual. The faster this masterpiece plays out the less economic damage it’ll do since the majority of the economic damage so far is a result of human reaction. The world is just faster now than it was in the Middle Ages or 1918. I could be very wrong but I hope I’m right.

[jacob]

It has always been a choice between killing off ~1% of the population and killing GDP growth for the lock down period (lets give it 12 months on and off at 3%). To do the US math, are the weak and/or old worth more or less than $175,000/person.

Perhaps the ultimate distinction between outcomes in different countries will not be measured in capitalism, populism, welfare, socialism, authoritarianism, but in terms of temporal discount factors and how much a culture values age (old people). If so, countries that values youth and yolo will fare the worst, whereas countries that values age and longterm thinking will fare the best.

[7Wannabe5]

I am not nearly that optimistic. Let’s say CFR is .5%. If first curve/wave only results in 100,000 deaths in the U.S., only 20,000,000 will have gained short term immunity. So, either the second wave will be much worse or series of waves will be managed with intermittent lock-downs.

Also, treatment is not cure.

[davtheram12]

@ Sky
That sounds like a wonderfully structured day. I regularly have those types of days on Saturday and Sunday. They are perfect ways to recharge after a work week

[7Wannabe5]

@jacob:

At full burn, likely to kill off more than 1%. Also, RNA based and zoonotic, so ...?

I think a lot of people are trying to “break even” by doubling down, rather than rationally accepting the loss and the new budget.

[jacob]

We don't know ... these factors will all increase the price.

PS: I should have used 2x the SK CFR on account of health care systems becoming overwhelmed, so 1.4% (expected true CFR). I've posted my "simple math" in the other thread a couple of times.

[Sclass]

@bigato, I’m just thinking out loud. I guess we’ll see what happens. At the end of the day what I think or even hope for is irrelevant. You have a good point about people panicking on their own. Like the toilet paper and water bottle buyers going nuts will have some kind of effect on the system for better or worse.

I was stunned to tune in Bloomberg News today and hear Trump putting his hopes on Chloroquine. I’m hoping this can make a difference.

[jennypenny]

Any advice for longer-term preps ...

A solar generator that's strong enough to run your electronics (especially if working from home) might be useful. We routinely have power outages in my area and I imagine it will take longer to fix issues if the virus hits our area hard. I also bought extra insect repellant since I expect to spend more time gardening.

eta: I also ordered extra flea and tick/heart worm medicine for my dogs.

It has always been a choice between killing off ~1% of the population and killing GDP growth for the lock down period (lets give it 12 months on and off at 3%).

Neil Howe suggested other options towards the end of this webcast from yesterday. The options are listed on the third slide from the bottom here. (lots of detailed virus stats on the slides if anyone is interested)

[jacob]

@jp - Yeah, I think they call it "the hammer and the dance" now.