The Trump Problem (the real one)

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

Dismayed, yes. Freaked out about something unexpected, no. He's doing exactly what he said he was going to do. The only people who should be surprised are the ones who didn't believe him or thought he was somehow different from the same person he's been for most of his life.

Most people I know, whether they supported him or not, are hoping that the "adults in the room" who make up about half his advisors will take over at some point. I think that's probably wishful thinking. They're more likely to quit or be fired.

As the Dead Kennedys once sang in the 1980s, "We've Got A Bigger Problem Now." Only they didn't know they were prophets at the time.

steveo73
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by steveo73 »

Chad wrote:A really good article by an economist from Cal. It's long, but does a good job of identifying when and how many manufacturing jobs were eliminated, and why, on a macro level, this happened.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/ ... loss-trump

It also briefly touches on some other themes we have talked about, such as the propensity to not move from a depressed economic area to a prospering one.
This was a really good article.

thrifty++
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by thrifty++ »

Oh I just found out that visa waiver proposal was misreported. It appears that there is no proposal to introduce an interview for existing visa waiver countries. Aargh get it right lazy journos!!!

7Wannabe5
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.
No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.
Though, if given a chance, which we don't seem to giving it right now, the market and society will create new/different jobs for people.
True. The author suggests that we only or mostly experience the affluence afforded by automation, and not major associated ecological disasters, then we will likely either move towards a financially egalitarian society in which status is mostly acquired in social context (how many "likes" did your new hairstyle get?) or a financially lopsided situation with "rentiers" (individuals who own real estate, intellectual property rights (increasingly important), robots) at the top and the only employment opportunities available at the bottom will be in fields such as law, security, and robot maintenance. But, this will not be a stable situation due to crash of market demand once all credit has been fully extended and employed. IOW, the maintenance costs of the social construct of capitalism will become increasingly larger share of GDP.
Still plenty of places to "go west" to
True, for instance lots of wide open opportunity here in Detroit. The "West" was never some well-ordered Garden of Eden with fruit hanging low for the picking.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.
No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.
I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

@Thrifty

I fall in with much of what Dragline stated.

This is an example of the adults in the room failing to stop Trump concerning his "millions of illegal" votes claim:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/u ... MU5TAHryYL

This is the exact same type of information I get from certain friends who still live in my hometown.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Chad said: I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."
There is likely some garden-variety psychologically dysfunctional "need to be needed" manifesting in the 2nd definition, but there is also a whole lot of work that goes towards the maintenance of the huge shared infrastructure of any complex society. For instance, I think it is kind of hard to justify yourself as financially independent if you pay no taxes AND contribute no community service, but use the roadways, borrow books from the library and run on the park trails. Also, there are members of our society and other vulnerable/valued things in the world that simply do not have the means to be self-supporting, so those of us who have more than enough means need to do a bit more. And I don't mean to use "justify" in any sort of blue-haired matron "should" sort of manner, I am simply noting that this is an equation or equilibrium that is bound to break down over the long run if universally applied. Also, it is maybe even easier to be "self-employed" in social or community work than paid/survival work, so it can offer the benefits of autonomy. Even if you don't want to be forced to pay taxes, you can still choose to pick up trash from the park or teach a pack of disadvantaged kids how to kick a soccer ball, and you might even get a little perk of "feel good" from the effort.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »


Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

This is the future of manufacturing. 14 workers produce 500,000 tons of steel wire a year.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technol ... automated/

There is no saving the majority of manufacturing jobs, so problems will continue to show up within this class.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

Another piece of the puzzle that has been touched on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/11/opin ... .html?_r=1

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jennypenny
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jennypenny »

Brooks took a beating on twitter for that piece. ("my friend with only a high school education")

While I sort of agree with his point, I think the social barrier is a much bigger issue for people like Brooks who live in a particular kind of insulated bubble. The educated and well-off in other parts of the country don't have quite the same barriers based on socioeconomic status. See what you think when you read Cowen. He points out that NY and CA are the most segregated, and do the most self-segregating.

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

Chad wrote:
Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:04 am
This is the future of manufacturing. 14 workers produce 500,000 tons of steel wire a year.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technol ... automated/

There is no saving the majority of manufacturing jobs, so problems will continue to show up within this class.
And yet, there are now worker shortages for many jobs in many places. Senator Ben Sasse was questioning Janet Yellen about this this morning, noting that employers in Nebraska are now facing this problem. Not surprisingly, she didn't have much to say about it other than noting its the flip side of a lower unemployment rate.

There's a lot of dysfunction in employment markets these days -- you would figure employers would raise wages/benefits/training until they attracted the right people if the demand is there, and then people would move to the work. But its not happening, at least not yet.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

@jenny
Yeah, it isn't perfect and I agree with what you said. Though, I do think there is more segregation in other parts of the country than you do. My friends in Pittsburgh and Cleveland are all segregated now, but one. They were also almost all from blue collar rural areas.

My one friend near Erie, PA isn't segregated, but it's much more difficult to segregate yourself there due to the decades long economic decline.

There was one in Pittsburgh who wasn't, but after he married his 2nd wife they segregated themselves just by upgrading their house slightly.

My friends in DC and San Jose are segregated a little more, but it's more just because of total numbers.

@dragline
Many economists suggest more jobs have been created historically as tech has advanced.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ata-census

I am surprised too that employers haven't started to compete yet. Maybe the pace of change is too fast this time and it creates too much doubt to spend the money or time on going out of your way to hire someone.

I do know that my large client is having difficulty finding qualified IT people and police officers. They may be having issues with other positions, but I don't get to see that part of the organization.

My company is also having difficulty finding enough workers. Though, it doesn't seem to be at emergency levels, yet.

BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE »

Dragline wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:04 pm
Senator Ben Sasse was questioning Janet Yellen about this this morning, noting that employers in Nebraska are now facing this problem.
what does Dragline think of Sasse? brute is quite fond of him (no homo), even though he probably couldn't recite any actual policy decisions Sasse has made.
Dragline wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:04 pm
There's a lot of dysfunction in employment markets these days -- you would figure employers would raise wages/benefits/training until they attracted the right people if the demand is there, and then people would move to the work. But its not happening, at least not yet.
in brute's completely subjective and unscientific opinion, it feels like companies have gotten used to things just getting solved if they wait it out. be it the internet in the 90s, tech and housing bubble in the 2000s, or QE after, there was always some external factor that magically increased productivity or injected capital. maybe companies have forgotten how to hire and train humans.

the whole "skills gap" Mike Rowe thing probably plays into it as well. there are tens of thousands of unfilled manufacturing and trades jobs, and tens of thousands of humans with an art degree working as baristas because dirty hands are beneath them. he said from his white collar AF office ;)

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

Sasse seems pretty interesting, but I honestly don't know that much about him. He certainly seems different than most of his colleagues.

There is an interesting interview of him by Tyler Cowen recently on his podcast, which is about the sum of my knowledge at the moment: https://medium.com/conversations-with-t ... 5b4a435323

7Wannabe5
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

To feel at home in opportunity-rich areas, you’ve got to understand the right barre techniques, sport the right baby carrier, have the right podcast, food truck, tea, wine and Pilates tastes, not to mention possess the right attitudes about David Foster Wallace, child-rearing, gender norms and intersectionality.

The educated class has built an ever more intricate net to cradle us in and ease everyone else out. It’s not really the prices that ensure 80 percent of your co-shoppers at Whole Foods are, comfortingly, also college grads; it’s the cultural codes.
This is what I was trying to communicate to Ego in some other thread when I said that it was sooooo boring how all the women shopping in the affluent suburban Whole Foods try to look attractive in exactly the same way. Also, I would note for the record that my friend who is worth over $70 million understands only enough of the above to make decisions related to stock market purchases. He grew up on a hard-scrabble farm with 13 siblings and still behaves like somebody who had to eat on the porch half the time. Whereas, my former lover who was practically the Ideal Ken Doll for the lifestyle described above does not have nearly that net worth and admired me for being such a "beautiful free spirit" (or at least that is what he said to get into my NOT-Whole Foods Shopper Pilates Ideal size 6 pants. :lol: )

By happenstance (or not???), I recently decided to explore how tutoring in an affluent district would compare with teaching in a low-income district. Verified my previous supposition that there are a good many very bright, low-income kids getting a seriously crap education in America and a good many, not very bright, affluent kids getting an excellent education in America. Since I long ago decided that my core "tribe" was the "IQ over 130 cuckoo-bananas" tribe, I personally think this is a shame and a waste.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Chad wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:47 pm
Another piece of the puzzle that has been touched on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/11/opin ... .html?_r=1
Related: https://aeon.co/ideas/conspicuous-consu ... gibles-now

Riggerjack
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Riggerjack »

By happenstance (or not???), I recently decided to explore how tutoring in an affluent district would compare with teaching in a low-income district. Verified my previous supposition that there are a good many very bright, low-income kids getting a seriously crap education in America and a good many, not very bright, affluent kids getting an excellent education in America.
This presumes that compensation is related to quality. The highest paid teachers in the state (before they went on strike for more money) also have the student body with the lowest test scores in the state. 24% passing the WASL basic skills test. Having dealt with lots of teachers while cabling classrooms, I would say most good teachers are not teaching in public schools. The entire school system is setup to filter out teachers with drive or passion.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@black_son_of_gray:

These articles are really bringing out my love/hate relationship with the aspirational class. I am going to have to read that book. I must admit that the story of the first couple decades of my life as an adult would be based on how to slap-dash apply the rules of frugality in order to raise two children in accordance with the standards of the aspirational class while married to a depressive hipster.

@Riggerjack: I would say that public school teachers are a mixed lot. I have met some truly dedicated professionals whom I greatly admire. The problem is that great teachers are not enough. Teacher to Student ratio is extremely important. Even the size of the classroom itself makes a difference.

The main reason why I chose, at significant financial cost, to stay at home with my kids when they were young is I had previously worked part-time in daycare facilities where costs were held steady by staffing right at the legal limit of adult/toddler. Nothing can compare to the benefit of one-on-one attention. In any institution where the level is maintained at just barely functional, the adults will have to focus their energy on putting out fires, and the reasonably well-behaved children will get almost no attention at all.

BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE »

Dragline wrote:
Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:47 am
There is an interesting interview of him by Tyler Cowen recently on his podcast, which is about the sum of my knowledge at the moment: https://medium.com/conversations-with-t ... 5b4a435323
great interview. brute pretty much agrees with everything Sasse said. he also appears free of that political bullshit brute hates about professional politicians.

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