Halfmoon's journal

Where are you and where are you going?
halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

saving-10-years wrote:
Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:08 am
I have been sorting through my mountain of fleeces* from past years and consigning the ones which are really not going to be good enough to the incinerator.
Wow; I'll bet the lanolin helps them burn nicely. If I had a mountain of fleeces here in western WA, it would soon be a mountain of moths. We have to keep all of our wool clothing in a cedar chest, and I have two beautiful Pendleton blankets that never see the light of day because they'll attract moths.* I've bought a few cashmere sweaters at yard sales for $1, but I always hold them up to the light first and look for holes.

Using the fleece for compost/mulch is brilliant!

Thanks for the reassurance re old photos. :) I cringe every time I post them.

* Doesn't mean I'll ever get rid of the blankets. I'm like the women who keep their jewels in a safe and wear fakes.

saving-10-years
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by saving-10-years »

Keeping those beautiful blankets in store until you are safely within a moth free zone is a great idea. I marvel at how moths here (not many and taking measures) will ignore the grotty serviceable woolens and the washed fleece (only ever found them in one so far) and hone in on cashmere- my only two items of cashmere and not bought for $1 (although admittedly not full price either). I am helping a friend sort our her yarn and fibre stash). She has a forty years start on me in collecting this stuff and there is a lot of it. And a whole load of moths having the time of their lives. Its teaching me the wisdom of not hoarding good stuff to use later. Use it now or sell it on! (Or make sure its in VERY SAFE storage).

bryan
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by bryan »

latest pics inspired me to have another look for crappy lots (urban or more forested) within biking distance to some social nexus.. cheapest in the Bay Area is $250k for a decent (dangerous and run-down but close to things) location. I found another that may be in the path of progress (but far from public transit) for $75k but it looks like you have to submit building plans else pay ever increasing fees. Did some searches for a few other cities and New Orleans still looks promising (watch out for flooding though..). My home town had one lot for $10k I forwarded to my Dad to convince him to buy it (seems like a steal to me, great school district and home prices bottom out at $200k) for either a small/tiny house or urban farm (he's already run out of sunny space at his own home.. a lot of his front yard is a food garden w/ bee hives and he's waiting for the dog to die to get chickens for the backyard) or something. The lot next to it is a garden, at least as of last google street view.

@halfmoon, did you already mention how much the land cost, or how much it is worth now? I've day-dreamed about doing stuff like this in Oregon but ultimately I can't see myself being too far from a real city. Maybe if it were a seasonal thing..

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

saving-10-years wrote:
Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:37 pm
Its teaching me the wisdom of not hoarding good stuff to use later. Use it now or sell it on! (Or make sure its in VERY SAFE storage).
Not hoarding?? :shock: One of those Pendleton blankets cost me $3 at a yard sale! How can I not hoard it? :D

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

bryan wrote:
Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:20 pm
latest pics inspired me to have another look for crappy lots (urban or more forested) within biking distance to some social nexus...

@halfmoon, did you already mention how much the land cost, or how much it is worth now? I've day-dreamed about doing stuff like this in Oregon but ultimately I can't see myself being too far from a real city. Maybe if it were a seasonal thing..
@bryan, distance to a social nexus is key along with employment opportunities (obviously related), climate and a number of other factors. The 40 acres cost us $18,000. Building the house was another $12,000 for a total cost of $30,000...excluding the subsequently-built structures and our own years of self-imposed 'free' labor. Actually, it's hard to decide if our labor was a cost or an asset (Jacob? need help here) because we gained strength, knowledge, satisfaction and self confidence with everything we did.

Your second question is timely; we're finally facing the need to sell the property because we can't keep up with it any more. What is it worth now? Obviously, the worth to us is immeasurable. We viewed the isolation and heavy snowfall as positive factors when we lived there, but our standards were unique. Determining what it will sell for is another matter entirely.

I'm pretty sure there would be more opportunities for cheap land in Oregon than the Bay Area, but insanely good deals are probably hard to find anywhere. Investors, flippers and RE agents are pretty tuned in to every opportunity. DH was showing me an ad for "cheap" real estate ($2k/acre) in Tennessee, so I googled the state minimum wage just for fun: $7.25/hour. Makes that real estate look a little less cheap. :(

*Edited to correct the addition of $18,000 and $12,000. I originally came up with $20,000, which is just embarrassing for an accountant. :oops:
Last edited by halfmoon on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bryan
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by bryan »

I guess it's important as ever before to find deals before they hit the market.. and conversely to get what you are selling marketed!

My dad got back to me today about the $10k lot. Mostly positive and he will look into it further. However, from the conversation it sounded like he wants me to buy it. Not a bad idea but I assumed he would.. I suspect he wants me to plant some type of roots back home, even if it just means more frequent visits?

Good luck with the sell. Are y'all just going to be moving back west (did you sell the western WA property)? Sorry if I am skipping ahead in the book :P

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

bryan wrote:
Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:02 pm
Good luck with the sell. Are y'all just going to be moving back west (did you sell the western WA property)?
We never sold the western WA property, and we actually moved back here "temporarily" in 2002...still here. Accepting the reality that we would never return full time to our mountain home took years of emotional adjustment. We enjoy it now. Quality medical care is critical; the ability to grow things is a bonus; good ethnic food is priceless. :D

Where is the lot (near your dad) that you're considering?

bryan
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by bryan »

A nice suburb in Alabama where I grew up. The lot is in the "less desirable" (only historically.. race lines.. it's close to a lot of good stuff) part of town which doesn't matter at all (well it matters for the fact that the prices there will be multiples of what they are today after a few years, trends-willing). I could see that part of town being for folks my age (tiny houses, shotguns, bicycling, etc) starting families and being priced out of the $350k++ homes in the same school district. I'll probably buy it or make sure my dad buys it...

But AL is a lot different than the Bay Area :) I am reminded every time I visit..

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

@bryan, the lot could be a good investment from your description.

Have you looked at comparable properties in the same part of town? Are there a lot of vacant lots for sale? How about houses? Are sales brisk or slow? What are the property taxes? Is city sewer/water either available or already in? If already in, what's the monthly bill? If not, what's the hookup cost?

Gentrification is a good bet as long as there's employment and sustainable growth in the area. Is it a place that can attract people your age? Keep in mind the reasons that you don't want to live there.

I think (without actually researching) that some of the southeast US is experiencing growth from retirees looking to move someplace cheap and warm. If the $350k homes in the same school district are predominantly owned by retirees, they'll vote to keep property taxes low at the expense of schools -- and they'll probably not be a gentrification force for your target neighborhood.

We know people who are planning to retire to S Carolina for the low property taxes, cheap new homes and warm winters. They're unwilling to consider non-white neighborhoods. No gentrification for them. :evil:

bryan
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by bryan »

halfmoon wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:17 am
move someplace cheap and warm
But not humid ;)

This specific town seems to be the preferred suburb of the city for millennials.. probably because back in high school we kicked so much ass in everything while still having a down to earth/grounded reputation and somewhat diverse student body. All the other suburbs have some light stigma/obvious downside. So it makes sense to me that everyone wants to raise their kids there.. Also, it is the closest suburb (of the same-tiered ones) to the city. Everyone seems to think the city is hopeless as far as schools go.. I'm not convinced, but if they are right then this suburb is a prime choice. Also it could some bias on my part since I grew up there and that's my social circle online or when I go home... but I do meet plenty of people that grew up in a competing suburb but now live or want to move to this one.

There's no doubt it's a good investment opportunity (assuming no horrible gotchas..). However, I'm ethically somewhat opposed to real estate investing. This situation I wouldn't feel bad about, however. I also don't want to waste my first-time home-buyer bonus perk, whatever that is.

The lot on zillow looks like a 1/2 lot size. Kind of weird.. The large corner lot next to it, I mentioned, is a garden so I will see if it is owned by the town or what.. Zestimates for small lot homes in that area are about $100k. Backyard neighbours (not in the neighbourhood) are $230k, which is about the low end for any home in the town.. The elementary school it is zoned for is also the best one in the town. Thanks for the tips. Waiting for my dad to make some inquiries. He's always on top of this sort of thing.

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

bryan wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:42 pm
halfmoon wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:17 am
move someplace cheap and warm
But not humid ;)
Yeah; there's that humidity thing. And yet...retirees are flocking to the southeast. That low COL is pretty compelling, especially if you've never actually experienced a hot, humid summer.

I suspect that Zillow's values are often inaccurate. I base this on my obsession with local real estate (including our own), in which I compare Zillow values with listing/selling prices in a completely random and unscientific manner. Regarding the lot looking half-size: I would check with the county assessor's site. That's where reality lives. :D

It sounds as though you (and your dad) are thinking clearly. One caveat: I'd compare vacant lot values instead of home values, because there are too many variables in comparing the value of improvements. On the other hand, $10k is a pretty safe bet...unless the lot is unbuildable. Better check with the county planning department on that (so maybe two caveats).

George the original one
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by George the original one »

halfmoon wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:59 pm
I suspect that Zillow's values are often inaccurate.
If you rigorously pay attention to them, you'll see Zillow does annual or semi-annual corrections of their Zestimates. Usually about the time you tell yourself "Hey, Zillow is waaay off the mark now". Over the years, I've seen corrections of as much as 10% for property I've owned. Note that they also correct the price history to the new value, so unless you're watching weekly or monthly, you won't see the adjustment.

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

@GeorgeTOO, I admittedly haven't rigorously tracked the trend in Zillow values. When I look ("look" probably doesn't convey my obsession level) at real estate listings in my target rental property area, I usually check out the value estimates on Zillow and Redfin. Zillow is consistently higher. Neither site seems to take into account micro factors (has the property been improved since the last sale; is the house trashed; what's the development potential). Maybe my expectations are too high for a free website. ;)

For example: I was looking at the listing for a lot with a house that explicitly was a tear-down. The listing specified that the parcel could no longer be used for a single family home, and to my great amusement the front door had a sign stating that the door was not included with the sale. :lol: I didn't feel that Zillow's estimate reflected this.

Riggerjack
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by Riggerjack »

I have a property linked as owner through Zillow. I am also looking at it through a guest account. Same property, and a $200k difference in zestimate.
So it is totally worth 400k, or 600k, or maybe in the middle, or less, or more.

Zillow estimates are worth the price paid. I prefer to look in redfin, filter for sales.

Also, most assessors have records of nonMLS sales that don't make it to the meta sites. Search your county website, under assessor, auditor, and planning.

Assessors set property values for tax, so they track sales.

Auditors generally run the recording Dept. Public records.

Planning often has GIS maps, along with overlays. For instance, in snohomish county, I can look up property on the assessor map. Open a planning map, overlay elevation contours, streams, flood zone, zoning, and all permits under 3 years old. Handy to know the rural property on the outskirts of town is across the street from a permitted 500 home development, that hasn't been started yet.

Also, there is nothing like taking the parcel number of the property of interest, and walking into the planning office. Then you can look at all the permit applications that tried and died, and get a feel for why. Best to know before you buy.

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

Riggerjack wrote:
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:23 am
I have a property linked as owner through Zillow. I am also looking at it through a guest account. Same property, and a $200k difference in zestimate.
So it is totally worth 400k, or 600k, or maybe in the middle, or less, or more.
Totally. :lol:

That's bizarre. Which account shows the higher value? My only problem with Redfin is frequently encountering a message that they don't have enough information to create an estimated value. In a perfect world, I'd like to know the valuation factors and their ranking. I'm willing to ignore ads in trade for improvement.

I also use the Snohomish County GIS system, though I like King County's imap better. Good point about checking with the planning department for permit applications. Likewise for septic permits and reports. Also the city water/sewer department (if applicable), because unpaid water/sewer bills and assessments become a lien on the property.

Most here would probably disagree, but we found using a knowledgeable realtor very valuable in searching for rental property. Accent on knowledgeable. She had a lot of great insight due to being a landlord herself, and she was also able to access old listings for properties. This is useful if you're considering places whose listings don't provide interior photos, which can happen when the place is rented or being foreclosed.

I didn't think about the non-MLS listings. Great advice.

Riggerjack
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by Riggerjack »

In snohomish county, septic records are kept by the health Dept. You can pull up asbuilts online, using the parcel number, from the GIS maps. You can also do a public records search online by parcel number and owners names for liens and pending suites.

I like IMAP, but King county likes to keep most of their information offline.

Zillow rates my property 200k higher through my owner's account than if I log in as guest, and just find my way to my property. I find that searching sales records myself is a reasonable way to assess. Having 3 mortgages means I have read my share of assessments. It's not that precise.

In fact, this came up on an appraiser's forum. A realtor wanted to know why so many of his client's appraisals matched the selling price. The jist of the response was that an appraiser can find similar houses, and similar sakes, and if they are doing their job right, they can establish a range of what a house is likely to sell for. If the sale falls in that range, that is the number, as it is the value a buyer and seller agreed to. If the sale falls outside of the range, they use the price at the end of the range closest to the sales price. You can do the same for an approximation. Until you have a deal, an approximation is as close as you could get.

Good luck selling the place in eastern WA. Have you tried pushing it on permies, and survivalist forums? For that matter, you have plenty of info here, maybe you should add an asking price.

halfmoon
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by halfmoon »

Riggerjack wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:42 am
Good luck selling the place in eastern WA. Have you tried pushing it on permies, and survivalist forums? For that matter, you have plenty of info here, maybe you should add an asking price.
I appreciate the thought. We've moved from denial to acceptance, but we don't really have a game plan yet. Acquiring things goes pretty quickly for us; letting go of them is another matter.

I had to think a minute to figure out "permies", but probably permaculture enthusiasts? Survivalists would love this place, so that's a great suggestion. I don't think it would appeal to permaculturists because it's not easy to grow things at 3500' on the north side of a mountain. It's more of a hunter-gatherer environment. Pretty specific market, and I doubt that any good folks on this forum would actually want to live there. Okay; maybe brute. :mrgreen:

Plenty of info here? Ha! You ain't seen nothin' yet. Reminds me that I need to get off my duff and continue my story.

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Sclass
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by Sclass »

Riggerjack wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:42 am

Zillow rates my property 200k higher through my owner's account than if I log in as guest, and just find my way to my property.
Any idea of why this is the case? Is it intentional?

DutchGirl
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by DutchGirl »

halfmoon wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:53 pm
I had to think a minute to figure out "permies", but probably permaculture enthusiasts? Survivalists would love this place, so that's a great suggestion.
Yup, permaculture enthusiastics.

I think it may help to let the house go if you see that the new people are very happy about it and will probably live there with the same kind of respect and love as you had for the place. It sucks how you sometimes have to let go of things when you get older. Whoever came up with the silly idea of aging?
halfmoon wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:53 pm
Plenty of info here? Ha! You ain't seen nothin' yet. Reminds me that I need to get off my duff and continue my story.
Yes, please :-) .

Riggerjack
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Re: Halfmoon's journal

Post by Riggerjack »

Zillow rates my property 200k higher through my owner's account than if I log in as guest, and just find my way to my property.

Any idea of why this is the case? Is it intentional?
Zillow is driven by eyeballs. People are fascinated by home values, and change in home values. It seems like poor marketing to not take advantage of this.

In my case, both numbers could be justified. It's not like my house is a mcmansion with easy comparable sales all through the neighborhood. Perhaps mine is an extreme example of an algorithm designed to appeal to homeowners.

Whidbey literally has old 50's cabins with outhouses right next to multimillion dollar estates. Zillow really isn't likely to get that right.

I only brought up my example to show that there is some motivation in their numbers. Just factor it in, and take what they say with a grain of salt.

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