Trump - Clown Genius

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
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Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

We need to get passed the tribal mentality and elect more middle of the road candidates and do away with extreme right-wing and left-wing candidates. And the power of the presidency has grown too strong. We need congress to take back its legislative power and behave in a more bipartisan manner. Everyone is so happy to cede power to their candidate until the other side wins the election. No one thinks about the future when they are voting extra power and authority to their president of choice.
Agreed. And get money out of politics and eliminate gerrymandering.

Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

Dragline wrote:Read paragraph 4 of the order again. You can't be enjoined from taking "further acts and misconduct in violation of the Constitution" unless you've already taken some "acts and misconduct in violation of the Constitution." The order makes no sense otherwise. And yes, every judge's decision is subject to review, first by the judge herself through motions practice, then by the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in this instance, and then by the United States Supreme Court. But an order is an order and it must have a legal basis grounded in law, which in this case happens to be the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses contained in the Amendments to the United States Constitution.

And yes, paragraph one talks about the likelihood of success on the merits. This is a four factor test that applies to all applications for interim relief under Rule 65 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure. All it means functionally is that the issue is subject to further review by the same judge.
The 4th paragraph states:

It is appropriate and just that, pending completion of a hearing before the Court on the merits of the Petition, that the Respondents be enjoined and restrained from the commission of further acts and misconduct in violation of the Constitution as described in the Emergency Motion for Stay of Removal.

The court is basically saying it believes there has been a violation and is stopping any further actions done by the Government until an official ruling. Legally the judge hasn't ruled the action unconstitutional but is taking actions since there is evidence that it may be unconstitutional. This is similar to when someone is charged with a crime. A judge issues a warrant for a person to be arrested, the defendant is charged, put in jail with a possible bail opportunity, and forced to undergo a trial. The accused isn't legally guilty but it still being detained and his rights temporarily suspended until his guilt or innocence is legally established at the conclusion of a trial. The Stay of Removal is basically a warrant to detain the actions of the government until proven guilty (unconstitutional) or not-guilty (constitutional).

PS - I believe this interpretation of the executive order to detain legal Visa holders and permanent residents will be found unconstitutional and its unconstitutionality upheld by subsequent courts.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

Except the legal standards are not the same. To charge someone with a crime, a prosecutor need only show probable cause in most cases, which is a very low standard of proof. And whether they are actually detained pending trial is determined by a separate proceeding under a different standard as to whether they pose a flight risk -- not whether they are likely to be guilty or not on the merits, which would violate their rights.

The standard for obtaining a civil injunction is "a substantial likelihood of success on the merits", along with proof of irreparable harm and balancing tests involving two other factors. But I think we are otherwise in agreement. I have not read the order that was also issued last night by a federal judge in Virginia that had a similar effect. EDIT: It appears that two other federal judges in other states also issued similar orders.

Not surprisingly, much of this could have been avoided had the White House followed the standard procedure of actually consulting lawyers in the department of justice before issuing an executive order, and crafting something that would have been a lot less dramatic and a lot more likely to be in compliance with the law.

Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

Except the legal standards are not the same. To charge someone with a crime, a prosecutor need only show probable cause in most cases, which is a very low standard of proof. And whether they are actually detained pending trial is determined by a separate proceeding under a different standard as to whether they pose a flight risk -- not whether they are likely to be guilty or not on the merits, which would violate their rights.

The standard for obtaining a civil injunction is "a substantial likelihood of success on the merits", along with proof of irreparable harm and balancing tests involving two other factors. But I think we are otherwise in agreement. I have not read the order that was also issued last night by a federal judge in Virginia that had a similar effect. EDIT: It appears that two other federal judges in other states also issued similar orders.
I know the standards are different - I was using an analogy to show that actions/rights can be suspended without a formal ruling in regards to the final outcome of a case. I stand by my statement that the order hasn't been formally ruled as unconstitutional yet.
Not surprisingly, much of this could have been avoided had the White House followed the standard procedure of actually consulting lawyers in the department of justice before issuing an executive order, and crafting something that would have been a lot less dramatic and a lot more likely to be in compliance with the law.
Agreed.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

Gilberto de Piento wrote:
We need to get passed the tribal mentality and elect more middle of the road candidates and do away with extreme right-wing and left-wing candidates. And the power of the presidency has grown too strong. We need congress to take back its legislative power and behave in a more bipartisan manner. Everyone is so happy to cede power to their candidate until the other side wins the election. No one thinks about the future when they are voting extra power and authority to their president of choice.
Agreed. And get money out of politics and eliminate gerrymandering.
Well, humans have to end apartheid for one.

And slow down the nuclear arms race, stop terrorism and world hunger.

They have to provide food and shelter for the homeless, and oppose racial discrimination and promote civil rights, while also promoting equal rights for women.

Humans have to encourage a return to traditional moral values.
Most importantly, they have to promote general social concern, and less materialism in young people.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Kriegsspiel »

BRUTE... how thoughtful.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

brute is just the voice of reason.. the boy next door.

m741
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by m741 »

Latest news - Bannon added to National Security council. Joint Chiefs will attend 'as needed.' Start with the immigration order and wall, then do the fun stuff while people are distracted.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38787241

I'm guessing there's some terror attack in the US within the next 6 months that's used as a Reichstag Fire incident.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

ffj wrote:@Chad
The mood will be dependent on job and wealth creation and national security. Two areas Trump is heavily focusing on and if he is even mildly successful in these areas than it would be hard to beat him if he ran again. I don't believe anybody will be losing any fundamental rights.
Yes, there will be more things to judge him on.

If he does what he says he is going to do concerning economic policies, and based on everything so far those that said not to take him literally are wrong, he will prop up the economy/market a little for about 1-2 years, probably closer to 2. But, his policies are short-term and late in the cycle, so it's unlikely they will have a big long-term impact.

The White House is now suggesting late 2017 to 2018 for tax reform. This may change my mind on when a pullback occurs. I'm starting to think it's sooner rather than later, as the current market needs those new tax laws to maintain this level.

I don't normally agree with Krugman, as he is very biased. However, he gets how it's rather impossible to save manufacturing jobs:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/o ... 0&referer=

There are also issues with his infrastructure plan if he does what he says he is going to do:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver ... pay-you-go

Concerning national security, I don't see his policies making the US safer/stronger. Some may think so, but those are the same people that cower from nothing and always want to start a war with someone (Everyone who supported starting the Iraq War should have that entered in their permanent record.).

His ridiculous ban on Friday created a great recruiting tool for Muslim extremists. Makes it much easier to say there is a war on Islam, while banning people from countries that have proven to present a very minor threat. Trump could have made this order a lot better if he had just acted like a President instead of a dictator. His word is not law (I'm giving to the ACLU for the first time, because of this.).
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... 1-countri/

Then his unbelievable idiotic move of removing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and then he added in the most questionable guy in the White House, his propaganda master Bannon. It would be like taking Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off the Patriots before the season began. Why would anyone do that unless you are a moron or a child?

And, the wall won't stop anyone. There is already a wall along a little more than a 1/3rd of the border and natural barriers along other parts. It doesn't really stop anyone who really wants to get in and based on recent studies roughly the same number are leaving as coming over the last 4-5 years. So, billions for no gain, whatsoever. Though, the wall will probably appease the egos of many of his supporters.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

scriptbunny wrote: Do you really think it'll be so short-lived? If Congressional Republicans do manage to lower corporate taxes, I could see the boost of capital repatriation making them and Trump look good for a few years (through 2020 at least).
I do. The two big variables in determining a country's growth rate are population growth and productivity increases. Population growth will probably fall slightly with the new policies and just bringing that money back isn't necessarily a long-term positive unless those companies invest it in productivity. If they just do dividends or share buybacks it will definitely be short term.

Also, a lot of them might not bring as much back as they once would have considering the current environment with Trump's White House. At least 1/5th of the total is from tech companies and they might be scared they won't be able to recruit enough engineers to the US after last Friday and probable future foolishness. This uncertainty will be an economic negative if allowed to go too long.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

@Chad -- I agree with everything you said. But did you mean 2017/2018 for tax reform?

With today's vague EO about "reducing regulations", its become abundantly clear that he's literally taking his campaign checklist/promise list and writing up a series of orders that he can then use for photo-ops, whether or not these ideas are legal and/or make any sense. Some of them will be contradictory if he keeps going.

There is a site here (I think by the y-combinator guy) that is trying to keep track: http://www.track-trump.com/

What he doesn't seem to understand, or maybe does and doesn't care, is that executive orders are limited by statutes and the Constitution. So what you are going to end up with it a bunch of lawsuits as they try to implement them like what we saw over the weekend. In fact, in the best-case scenario, the entire government may become bogged down -- judges just don't work that quickly. In the worst case scenario, we'll end up with a Constitutional crises and a potential for a lot of civil unrest.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

@Dragline

I'm going with what I heard on Bloomberg, which said the source was a White House official. I missed who. They were saying the tax reform bill would be created in late 2017 or into 2018, and one would assume passed with a Republican Congress. They were not entirely clear on the year the bill would institute the reform. 2017? 2018? 2019? I was assuming, given the time frame, they would implement it at earliest for 2017, but who knows with the way they are doing things. They don't seem to care about uncertainty, so changing the tax law for 2016 on New Year's eve seems plausible. Though, I don't know if there are laws preventing something like that.

They definitely seem to be doing the list thing, which probably plays out like you noted.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

But 2016 is over and its already 2017. Did they really say it was going to happen last year?

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

No. Sorry I might be unclear. They didn't mention anything about the year it would apply to. Just when they would introduce the bill. My 2016 mention is still the leftover muscle memory from 2016. I will correct my statement.

slowtraveler
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by slowtraveler »

Considering that the US stock market makes up near half of the global stock market, I don't think people are distressed enough for another Reichstag Fire incident. There's already huge resistance movements to his actions that seem more dictator like than president like.

That said, how do we stop a Reichstag Fire type event from turning into full on fascism?

Campitor
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor »

Felipe wrote:That said, how do we stop a Reichstag Fire type event from turning into full on fascism?
I think he would be impeached before he goes full blown Stalin. I'm hoping there are still constitutional patriots in government who would push impeachment and removal or refuse to carry out an unconstitutional order. After all doesn't everyone take an oath to defend The Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic, when they are sworn into office, join the military, or become US Citizens? Oddly, as far as I know, the only people who don't need to swear an oath to The Constitution are natural born citizens who remain civilians and don't hold any public office.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

You have a faulty memory, I'm afraid -- the situation in 2011 was different and was done in response to Congress, where this was actually discussed between Senators and administration officials.

"So what's the difference with Trump's action?

First, Obama responded to an actual threat -- the discovery that two Iraqi refugees has been implicated in bomb-making in Iraq that had targeted U.S. troops. Under congressional pressure, officials decided to re-examine all previous refugees and also impose new screening procedures, which led to a slowdown in processing new applications. Trump, by contrast, issued his executive order without any known triggering threat.

Second, Obama did not announce there was a ban on visa applications. In fact, as seen in Napolitano's answer to Collins, administration officials danced around that question. There was certainly a lot of news reporting that visa applications had been slowed to a trickle. But the Obama administration never said it was their policy to halt all applications. Even so, the delays did not go unnoticed, so there was a lot of critical news reporting at the time about the angst of Iraqis waiting for approval.

Third, Obama's policy did not prevent all citizens of that country, including green card holders, from traveling the United States. Trump's policy is much more sweeping."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... story.html

There was no threat and no purpose to Trump's order other than a glaring dictatorial -- yes, a highly accurate word -- power grab and placating irrational supporters who probably have never even spoken to a Muslim, are in more danger from their neighbors and coworkers, and should be more concerned with people like Dylan Roof, the nazi guy in Quebec and whomever just burned down the two mosques in Texas.

RealPerson
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by RealPerson »

I suspect that building the wall, leaving the free trade agreement and now the travel ban on the citizens of 7 countries are mostly theater. It is showing that "we haven't forgotten our election promises and are standing up for the little guy". If the courts strike down his executive orders, that makes it even better. "See...I tried but these out of control judges are just loose canons". Trump is no dummy and he knows television well. Most voters don't care about advice from DOJ lawyers etc. That is stuff lawyers care about (sorry Dragline). The voters who elected Trump will just see activist judges hell bent on pursuing a liberal agenda. It think it is the first stage in setting up the reelection campaign for Trump and force cooperation from vulnerable Democratic senators having to run in 2018, so he can get his agenda passed without 60 votes.

People always underestimate Trump (see the election for exhibit A).

It is interesting that Saudi Arabia, where a lot of the 9/11 guys came from, is NOT on the list. I don't believe that was an oversight.

m741
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by m741 »

Since this thread is mostly theorizing at this point, I think this article describing how the current situation is getting ducks in a row for a coup is interesting. IMO it's overall accurate with respect to intent, but that the actual consolidation of power will be a bit slower and more subtle (using noisy executive orders to distract in the meantime). Curious to hear other's thoughts.

https://medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial ... .fh2jxk9o5

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

That article on medium is scarily logical. At the very least, he is correct on them consolidating power into that select group and trying to avoid the natural checks and balances put in place within the various government departments.

If you want some more scary insight follow Timur Kuran on Twitter (@timurkuran). He is a Duke professor from Turkey who has followed Erdogan's rise from positive reformist President to dictator. So many of the moves between the two leaders are eerily similar.

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