Tesla Cars

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Freedom_2018
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Freedom_2018 »

See the thing is, an electric car keeps me tied down to some sort of charging infrastructure, trip planning to hit charging stations etc...i.e..it reduces my degrees of freedom.

In that way a Prius is preferable as it extends the range of my gas tank (not accounting for eventual dreaded battery replacement).

Basically what is the value proposition of an electric car?

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

Value proposition

ICE Cars = Not cool
Tesla = Cool kid. You're better than everyone else, and make rainbows instead of exhaust fumes - and you get to look good and go fast while doing so.

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Chris
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Chris »

Freedom_2018 wrote:Basically what is the value proposition of an electric car?
For most drivers, they get a smoother, quieter, cleaner, lower-maintenance means of transport that they can charge at home. Electric cars make a helluvalotta sense for city transport; most people aren't driving more than 200 miles per day.

As someone who spends most of my miles on the highway, I keep my non-hybrid ICE car. There isn't as much regen braking on the highway as the city, and I don't want to deal with the added maintenance complexity of two types of motors in the same car. The battery is also a concern, though perhaps an unfounded one. I know several Prius drivers, and they're still getting very acceptable battery performance several years after warranty. And I expect battery prices to continue to decline: in 2010, the Leaf battery cost $18k; now it's $5k. If Tesla's Gigafactory comes online, the world supply of batteries will double.

Freedom_2018
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Freedom_2018 »

Methinks something like the smart car would be a good solution for cities. Parking spaces are a huge concern...try parking in LA, Seattle or SF. Those small smart cars would essentially double the parking space available...marketing just has to find a way to make small cars cool..maybe put a kardashian or two in them.

Electric cars seem like a solution looking for a problem at this point. Perhaps if we have more electricity being generated from renewables(water, wind etc) then it would make more sense.

jacob
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by jacob »

Freedom_2018 wrote:Electric cars seem like a solution looking for a problem at this point. Perhaps if we have more electricity being generated from renewables(water, wind etc) then it would make more sense.
The reason for all the subsidies is to create the demand for this infrastructure. It will increase electricity demand and hence price leading to more renewable investment. Government has to be involved (with a subsidy) in order to nudge the supply/demand intersection. In a way, the subsidy is a way to get the public to demand an upfront investment in the infrastructure that will then be a low-cost solution for many years to come.

(It's kinda like what Tesla did to fund their research by making rich people with loose money pay for fancy sports cars so they could drive the production of a cheaper but still crazy expensive S model. Except the government is doing it for renewable infrastructure ... and with other people's money.)

The larger problem is cultural in the sense that society is trying to find a solution to a problem that could be designed away with smarter strategic choices (public transport, for example). But tradition is strong and doesn't die easily.

Riggerjack
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Riggerjack »

The larger problem is cultural in the sense that society is trying to find a solution to a problem that could be designed away with smarter strategic choices (public transport, for example). But tradition is strong and doesn't die easily.
Top
Public transportation is not a smarter strategic choice.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_ ... sportation


US Passenger transportation

The US Transportation Energy Data Book states the following figures for passenger transportation in 2009:[63]
Transport mode Average passengers per vehicle BTU per passenger-mile MJ per passenger-kilometre
Rail (intercity Amtrak) 20.9 2,435 1.596
Motorcycles 1.16 2,460 1.61
Rail (transit light & heavy) 24.5 2,516 1.649
Rail (commuter) 32.7 2,812 1.843
Air 99.3 2,826 1.853
Cars 1.55 3,538 2.319
Personal trucks 1.84 3,663 2.401
Buses (transit) 9.2 4,242 2.781
Taxi 1.55 15,645 10.257

Driving a pickup alone is more efficient than riding a bus, and light rail is within 0.5% of flying.

Public transportation is a boondoggle powered by subsidies and baseless self righteousness.

But bicycles still rock.

Riggerjack
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Riggerjack »

D'oh!
Looking again, the pickup only beats a bus if you have a passenger 60% of the time.

ducknalddon
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by ducknalddon »

Those figures look dubious to me, why is a taxi so different from a car?

jacob
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by jacob »

@Riggerjack - I used to that the bus to work out here in the near-burbs. Sometimes I was the only person in the bus! That's obviously a total waste of vehicle. I notice that the average passenger count in your table is 9.2 humans/bus. That's not a lot and a lot of those routes could be replaced with vans. Indeed, if more people took the bus instead of sitting backed up in traffic (to get to downtown which is about 8 miles away takes about 45-60 minutes), bus efficiency would go way up---also traffic would flow faster.

Another potential issue is that busses in the US have really strange seating arrangement with seats pointing in all kinds of directions instead of just being rows of two+two seats on each side of the isle. I don't know whether that's to accommodate several wheel chairs at a time or to provide seating for really fat passengers. Capacity may be down to 18-24 people per bus instead of twice that with a traditional seating plan.

In conclusion, it's a system problem. In the US with so many cars around, I think any transition is better solved with Uber like apps.

In terms of cost/efficiency, accounting is often biased against the public option. E.g. when computing the cost of driving, it's presumed that roads are magically free or that traffic accidents or pollution have no cost. Whereas a subway is charged 100% by the bottom line w/o including business growth around the stations. It's really apples and oranges.

Freedom_2018
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Freedom_2018 »

@Jacob:

Tesla battery is like 85kwh. Assuming some charges almost fully daily, lets say 72kwh...annual incremental consumption is 72x 365 = 26,280 kWh of lets say 26mwh.

US annual consumption is 5 billion mwh(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... onsumption)
So if they even sell one million teslas it represents 26million mwh on 5 billion base for about 0.5%. At 10million electric cars we get to 5% incremental consumption. That plan requires selling a lot of electric cars!

Not sure what that would do to electricity price as that will depend on how much generation capacity needs to be built (if any) at the margin to support this additional demand.

Also issues such as standards in charging platforms would have to be considered (like the 7 layer osi model that our internet protocol is based on)...i.e...can electric cars share a charging platform or are they each going to develop their own. This would impact battery production standards.

@riggerjack:

The rail/train numbers look bad because in the US..people expect to travel in public transport like they do in an airline..i.e...one passenger per seat. We need to pack them in like sardines as they do in Japan, China and India. Numbers will look much better then ..ha ha...:)

jacob
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by jacob »

@F2018 - There are 250M passenger vehicles in the US to be replaced within the next 10-15 years. I think the goal is to sell a lot. Home charging work can we done with standard 110V (slow) or an upgrade to 220V (much faster). What's interesting is that the battery bank in the vehicle could in principle be rigged to serve as the backup for home power, e.g. to serve as a PV energy reserve overnight [when the sun isn't shining]. IOW, all those EVs hooked up is a distributed replacement for baseload generators.

In terms of energy usage, the US is rich is coal and [shale] gas, but poor in oil, so each EV contributes a tiny bit to oil independence.

Freedom_2018
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Freedom_2018 »

I find it somewhat amusing that as far as digital storage goes, the move is away from discrete fragmented storage to the cloud or 'grid'.

On the other hand, electricity is moving from the grid to discrete battery packs roaming on four wheels (as well as discrete home solar installations etc).

If I recall correctly, high voltages are great for transmitting electricity since for the same wattage, a lower current means need for less thickwires (saves on materials) and lower transmission losses.

For battery charging, I thought a slight higher voltage than the battery's output with generous amounts of amperage were the way to go, but with quick charging pretty much a customer requirement to consider an electric car, battery technology would have to evolve to withstand high voltage charging without heating up the battery to combustion point.

Riggerjack
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Riggerjack »

Yeah, the numbers look suspect,because the results are unexpected. I've looked,at several sources, and most are in agreement. Japan is way ahead in Rail efficiency, but still not a huge difference. UK numbersare also similar.

To better understand, abus has 500lbs/ passenger at peak load. And it starts and stops far more than a car on the same road. It's worse at 900lbs per passenger at typical loads.

Expensive fuel will fix this with fewer stops and fewer runs, but as state/Federal funds buy buses, and cities pay drivers, this won't be solved by more size appropriate buses.

It's just waste, all the way down.

Toska2
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Toska2 »

I take all those passenger mile per BTU with a grain of salt.
Something about population density and how places like NYC couldnt possibly transport everyone by car or bike. Larger cities that do are sprawled out thus increasing the total miles. Better P-M/BTU for autos but making for a net loss to the environment. Apartment living vs suburban housing econmics are also excluded.

I dont despise Tesla but I wish the efforts were put towards school buses. I believe the utilization rate, economies of scale, and cradle to grave process gives a better return on investments.

Riggerjack
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Riggerjack »

I honestly don't follow your point. Buses don't become more efficient because the city is dense. But then, I'm on the west coast, in a rural county. Before our county's free bus system went bankrupt, using their unverified numbers, we were paying $15/passenger mile for a free service. It would be cheaper to just have a free taxi service.

To be fair, the commuting runs to the ferry run near capacity, one way, for a few hours every day. But, other than that, it pretty much just shuttles seniors around with 0-3 passengers in a full sized bus.

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

For all your Tesla dreams

https://ev-cpo.com

Looks like they have ~50% depreciation in 3 years based on the used asking prices and assuming the received trade-in value was even lower.

BRUTE
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by BRUTE »

that's pretty normal for luxury cars, isn't it? isn't it something like 20-30% down the first year?

Cornerman
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Cornerman »

Yes and sometimes more, never buy a new car. It's just way too expensive.

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