Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

[Chad]

@Scrubby
The US empire is more benign than other current options. This is definitely true. Though, I'm not sure how many boxes the US checks off in it's own democracy/freedom checklist. If it were a pure democracy would a Clinton and a Bush really be the candidates? This also changes the discussion, yet again.

It would be awesome if your moral argument was how the US operated. If democracy, freedom, individual rights, etc. were the main deciding factors for the US in events at these levels of interaction. Unfortunately, they are secondary at best. The US history in Iran, Iraq, South Korea, Vietnam, South and Central America, Saudi Arabia, etc. all suggest that the US's first concern isn't democracy or freedom. It should also be noted that if Germany democratically voted to join a new Warsaw Pact the US wouldn't be "ok" with it, just because it was democratic. State actors always act in their best interest first, which means it's always all about power before it's about anything else.

[Scrubby]

It should also be noted that if Germany democratically voted to join a new Warsaw Pact the US wouldn't be "ok" with it, just because it was democratic. State actors always act in their best interest first, which means it's always all about power before it's about anything else.

I'm sure they wouldn't like it, but I doubt they'd go to war. Of course, there's a reason why the countries that have switched sides since the fall of the wall have all gone the same way, and why those who haven't seldom have fair elections.

[Riggerjack]

Well, it's not exactly a conspiracy, but corporate sponsorship of "opposition".
Waste Management's sponsorship of the Sierra Club, who then push for recycling and landfill regulation, for example. The CEO of WM has come out and actually said that regulation has been very good for business.

Every profitable business is interested in barriers to entry to protect what they have from competition. I know when VZ was getting video franchises for the Fios rollout, the rule was that we wouldn't accept any deal where our franchise tax was higher than cable's. It didn't matter how high the tax was, what mattered was that the tax not make us uncompetitive. Any area where the tax could be negotiated below that of the local cable company, would get priority for the rollout.

With that in mind, I can see a confluence of interests between oil companies, the peak oil crowd, and environmentalists. Higher oil prices are in all of their interests. I'm not saying that oil companies are funding opposition to refinery development. But it would make sense. By capping refinery output, you limit supply. If I ran Shell, I'd fund a group of hippies to shut down the BP (or whoever's) new refinery with legal and political antics. That would just be prudent. Hiding the donation thru multiple charity foundations would be prudent, too.

This is about the highest level conspiracy I can believe possible. Anything more intricate or involved or criminal will fall apart for the same reasons listed in posts above.

[enigmaT120]

With that in mind, I can see a confluence of interests between oil companies, the peak oil crowd, and environmentalists. Higher oil prices are in all of their interests. I'm not saying that oil companies are funding opposition to refinery development. But it would make sense. By capping refinery output, you limit supply.

Loosening sanctions against Iran will screw all of them up, then.

[Riggerjack]

Loosening sanctions against Iran will screw all of them up, then.

Not really. Sanctions change where Iranian oil is sold, but even without sanctions, it wouldn't come to the States. My point was more to do with retail price, rather than wholesale.

When gas prices went up suddenly, last decade, there was much DC saber rattling. In theory this is consumer protection, but really it is a Congressional fund raiser. "Someone has made a bundle of money, and didn't cut us in!" In such a case, oil companies can point to refinery capacity, that supply is constrained, but it is constrained by the environmental lobby." See gouging prices were caused by your supporters" is an instant deflator of Congressional blather.

That is why it is worth paying to fund the "opposition". They stop growth of supply, and protect against " consumer protection " racketeering. If they ever hit too close to home, you cut off their funding, and fund a splinter group.

I have zero evidence to support my crazy conspiracy theory, mind you. It's just too simple and efficient to not be happening. Any company big enough to have a lobbying arm must be doing some version of this.

[Chad]

@Riggerjack
Your overall theory is why so many people seem to fall in love with big complex conspiracy theories, but as you noted it's really just people and organizations doing things in their own self interest within a system that sometimes makes strange bedfellows. The peak oil crowd and Exxon aren't going to form a SPECTRE like organization with a guy in a wheel chair petting a white cat as it's leader. Though, as you noted, they could find common ground with certain issues. For instance, with the amount of money Chevron has dumped into the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia, it wouldn't be surprising if some anti-coal/climate change groups got a little cash from a Chevron shell company to push Asian countries towards the cleaner natural gas solution.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/ ... 5220150707

[jennypenny]

I'm not sure if these are true, but I'm absorbed in them right now ...

-- I just read the Missing 411 books. Spooky, and sad. Whether you agree with Paulides's conclusions or not, there sure are a lot of missing people out there. I won't get a wink of sleep the next time I go camping in the woods.

-- At last count, I have 432 emails saved from prepper friends regarding the SHTF event predicted for September. If you haven't heard, you can read about it here (crazy prepper site -- you've been warned). I've gotten emails about stuff that I haven't read about on the main stream prepper sites. Weird coincidences. Lots of them. Even a lot of my Catholic acquaintances will admit that they've entertained the possibility that Pope Francis really is the last Pope and wonder if this is it.

At least I won't have to wait long to see if the second one is true.

[Ego]

I'm not sure if these are true, but I'm absorbed in them right now ...

If you haven't heard, you can read about it here (crazy prepper site -- you've been warned).

Remarkable! The ability to generate fear by connecting the dots between.... numerology (the number 7), a handful of bronze age beliefs, the Pope meeting the black ruler of the world, a French diplomat's prediction that we have 500 days to solve our climate problems and a Madonna concert.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

In contrast to an epiphany, an apophany (i.e., an instance of apophenia) does not provide insight into the nature of reality or its interconnectedness but is a "process of repetitively and monotonously experiencing abnormal meanings in the entire surrounding experiential field".


Amplify apophenia using the internet and you've got https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_hysteria

In sociology and psychology mass hysteria (also known as collective hysteria, group hysteria, or collective obsessional behavior) refers to collective delusions of threats to society that spread rapidly through rumors and fear.

He forgot to include the most important holiday in September on that list. September 13th is....
http://www.holidayinsights.com/moreholi ... ionday.htm

[jennypenny]

Remarkable! The ability to generate fear by connecting the dots between.... numerology (the number 7), a handful of bronze age beliefs, the Pope meeting the black ruler of the world, a French diplomat's prediction that we have 500 days to solve our climate problems and a Madonna concert.

You wouldn't believe what else is in the mix that I didn't list because I don't want to offend anyone or derail the thread. A prepper friend and I have been watching all of this with fascination and a giant bowl of popcorn. That said, there's no denying that the last 10 days of September are chock-a-block with political events, and an incident during any one of them could ignite the hysteria you mentioned.

[GandK]

... could ignite the hysteria you mentioned.

[enigmaT120]

That sucks. My birthday is 9/29. Unlike many people my age I like my birthdays, as I can retire at 56. I'll be 52 next month. But I often figure that a SHTF scenario is my best option for early retirement.

[Ego]

Even a lot of my Catholic acquaintances will admit that they've entertained the possibility that Pope Francis really is the last Pope and wonder if this is it.

At least I won't have to wait long to see if the second one is true.

That Pope thing is sad. Finally they get a Pope that I like (except for all that stuff about God and saints and miracles) and what do the Catholics do? They call him the anti-Pope. Sheesh!

If I were conspiratorially minded (and a believer) I'd wonder if God wasn't setting us up for the old bait-and-switch.

[Dragline]

Oh, you have seen nothing of the full-on craziness. There was an alleged seer named "Maria Divine Mercy" who ran a website called "The Warning Second Coming" (now taken down) for years who had a huge following and all kinds of conspiracy theories: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdY0zUe8Dwo

Turns out she was just a fraudster trying to make a buck: https://midwaystreet.wordpress.com/updates/

I think there's a very good business in conspiracies on the internet these days.

[Ego]

A dreadlocked German boomer-hippie moved into the cottage next door. When I told him I'm American he immediately steered the conversation to the Yellowstone super-volcano that has apparently become very active. According to him, people who are in tune with the earth's energy flows believe it is going to blow in September. There was also something about Russian ships off the west coast, but I had stopped listening by then. Add that to the list of things to look forward to next month.

[Dragline]

I was in Yellowstone in July. I have to say that Old Faithful was not nearly as faithful as the geyser of my youth.

There did not appear to be any increased volcanic activity. But there was a really dumb tourist who tried to take a selfie with a bison and got gored.

[Ego]

I There did not appear to be any increased volcanic activity. But there was a really dumb tourist who tried to take a selfie with a bison and got gored.

I'll mention that to my neighbor. I'm sure the bison incident was a manufactured diversion. '

[Chad]

Russian ships

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-ru ... ce344ebf96

[Ego]

A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma;



but perhaps there is a key.

[Kriegsspiel]

Makes sense.

[jennypenny]

More fuel for the the-world-is-going-to-end-this-week fire. The world is wonky because Mercury is in retrograde.

I have to admit, this end-of-the-world scenario is much more fun than the Mayan one. So many different groups jumping into the fray with so many different theories. If the world does end, how will we know which group was right?

----

I had to do a bit of research on Malaysia this weekend (don't ask), and I read that they intercepted several cell phone signals and communications from people on the missing flight for days after the supposed crash. In all seriousness, I wonder if the plane was taken somewhere and then scuttled later.