2015 Review
Last January, I wrote:
GandK wrote:This year's savings and growth will be less. We have medical bills coming for one of the kids (surgery after a broken leg), and our health insurance plan is less than generous. We expect the final bill to be $10k-$12k. G will have 2 daughters in college at the same time this fall. I believe the younger will get a free ride academically, but there will still be associated expenses. We are paying $6k this year for the elder; I anticipate paying roughly half that for the younger. And we have a big tax bill coming.
With no major windfalls on the 2015 horizon and some large bills coming due, I estimate this year's savings and growth will be about $75k, much less than 2014's. Our overall net worth should rise by $100k. We've tweaked our budget lately to increase our savings rate to 20%, but the bills will rein in our progress. It will suck to go backwards from 2014, but it's very cool to be far enough along our journey that I'm fairly certain our net worth for the year will rise by more than I made while working.
...
On the writing front, after a year of waffling, I've decided to pursue traditional publication instead of self-publication. Therefore, my 2015 writing goal is to finish editing book one of my series and find an agent for it.
2015 was a weird year.
Financially we were all over the place. This was due in large part to a speculative investment that looked promising but did not pan out in the end. I estimated above that our savings and growth for 2015 would be $75,000. The final figure was less than half that, at $31,236, although our savings rate went up from roughly 15% to 18% this year.
ICK.
However... we also removed a huge future expense from our retirement equation. The expense in question costs roughly $72,000 in today's dollars. The upshot of this change is that G's projected retirement date moved forward about 14 months. We now estimate he will be able to call it quits on April 1st, 2021, rather than June 1st of 2022.
YAY!
So even though our portfolio change was less than half of what I projected it would be, we came out further ahead on our goal than I thought because our non-qualified pot no longer needs to be as big as we thought. We won, even though we lost.
On the writing front I also fell short of my goal, although I think I had a back-handed win there, too. Although I'm not at the agent-seeking point yet, I did solve some underlying story problems on my manuscript that might have prevented me from getting published, and I found and dug into a great writing group. I'm doing some beta reading for those other writers at the moment while I decide what to do about one last story problem I'm having. Once I implement a solution and have my manuscript looked at one last time, I'll be seeking representation.
2016 Predictions
Financial: We ran our numbers yesterday and spent some time merging our projections (which for once were not wildly divergent, LOL). In 2016, we think we will break $400k in November or December 2016 for all non-pension accounts, and at about the same time, we hope to break $100k in non-qualified (regular brokerage) accounts. Two milestones, both right at EOY. There is a slight chance - 5% or less, I'd say - that the same speculative investment that lost us money in 2015 will rebound in 2016 and cause our net worth to go up another $100k. I doubt it, though.
Writing: I now plan to start looking for an agent for my current work around April 1st, 2016.
Other 2015 Observations
G and I started attending a new church recently. This is a very big change in our universe, our biggest change of 2015 for sure. Although we love our old church and had been active members for years, there was a toxic emotional situation there regarding a specific individual. After doing everything we could think of to change the situation and stay, we felt we had no choice in the end but to leave. Without going into detail, I think most objective observers, faithful or unfaithful, would wonder why we stayed put for so long. I can only say that although G and I are opposites in most ways, we both deeply hate the idea of giving up.
The new church is going fairly well so far. It's very different. It's much bigger, for one thing. In our last church we knew about half the congregation, and interacted with about a quarter of them. That's probably literally impossible now. The pastor of the new church is more edgy and intellectual in his sermons; our last minister was aiming squarely at "the unchurched" when he spoke, whereas the new guy assumes you were at least there last week. Part of the edginess is likely an age gap... our previous minister is in his 50s, and the new guy is in his 30s. It seems to be only young ministers that want to preach on things like homosexuality and euthanasia and traditional v/s modern roles of women. Older clergy don't rock the boat as much, IME. I prefer challenging sermons, even when I disagree. And I disagree frequently. G and I sometimes have lively debates on the way home from service.
Like our old church, this new one is small group oriented. (If you're unfamiliar, this is when you join a team of 12 or so people and "do life" with them. It's a common attempt to foster intimacy and familial relationships in large churches... everyone gets assigned to a group with people who are in roughly the same phase of life that you are. When you're married, this generally means once a week you're meeting in someone's home for dinner and intimate personal conversation with 5 other couples.) Someone in this church appears to be a Seth Godin fan, as they call their small groups "Tribes." We have not yet joined a Tribe. We expect that to happen sometime this month. Both of us are nervous about it. We've had good and bad experiences with small groups and with the Tribal mindset in general. Also, because G's background is in ministry (former pastor) and because he's a leader-type generally, he can't be just plopped into a group that already has a strong Alpha leader and everyone be happy. He's going to meet with the Tribal minister and "explain our family dynamic" before we join one, hehehe.
The other big change in our household in 2015 was that my older son, who is now 16, started working at McDonald's. About a month before his 16th birthday he got a job, and has been doing a fantastic job. He's diligently saving 70% of every paycheck, keeping his checkbook balanced, asking for as many hours as possible at work, is in the process of opening a Roth IRA of his own accord, and - most impressive of all to me - not only walking everywhere, but also hoping to get through high school without having to buy a car (we don't provide one). YAY! I am one proud Mama. You know your kids hear you having all these conversations, but you wonder whether they're absorbing it or not. And he did.
He's even doing the math on how many years he will have to work before he has F-You money, and is planning a technical career. If we can only get him to start turning in all his homework, we'll really be in business.
I don't know what else to call it. Every fall I have an emotional upswing that has nothing whatsoever to do with life events. I know it's coming but the strength of it still manages to take me by surprise. Biological compensation for the coming winter blahs, maybe? On the down side, my energy is lower. I'm sleeping about an hour more each night and I have to push myself harder to get all my steps in even though the weather is better for exercise. Basically I feel fat and happy in the fall, and if I'm not very deliberate about it, that's exactly what I will end up being. 
I haven't looked yet to see what my "job change" is. When I retired I changed my job description to "Stay at Home Mom, Lover of Life" but I still get programming solicitations. 
I don't see him often anymore but we spent a lot of time together when we were kids, and I loved hanging out with him. My family of origin is in a sort of mild uproar over this news. We've been an incredibly healthy bunch, all things considered. But he's the baby of my generation, so now everyone in our extended family is feeling blindsided and vulnerable. Fortunately quality health care and money are not an issue. No prognosis yet, but his spirits are good. Right now we're just praying that the chemo works and that he doesn't need a bone marrow transplant.
