TEOTWAWKI - 2022

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vexed87
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TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by vexed87 »

Get yer doom fix here :shock: :
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/we-all-fa ... ears-away/
For the average barrel of oil this may happen in 2022 — just 6 years away.

So by 2022 half the oil industry is likely to be out of business. Oil production won’t end — there will still be “above average” barrels produced, but dramatically less and less as we fall over the energy cliff, with the tail end around 2095.

The rapid end of the Oil Age began in 2012 and will be over within some 10 years. By 2022 the number of service stations in the US will have shrunk by 75%.
The critical parameter to consider is not the million barrels produced per day, but the net energy from oil per head of global population, since when this gets too close to nil we must expect complete social breakdown, globally.
We are in an unprecedented situation. As stressed by Tainter, no previous civilization has ever managed to survive the kind of predicament we are in. However, the people living in those civilizations were mostly rural and had a safety net, in that their energy source was 100% solar, photosynthesis for food, fiber and timber – they always could keep going even though it may have been under harsh conditions. We no longer have such a safety net; our entire food systems are almost completely dependent on the net energy from oil that is in the process of dropping to the floor and our food supply systems cannot cope without it.
I know these predictions can be a bit... misleading but it's interesting discussion about the practical challenges of dwindling EROEI for the industrial economy. I enjoyed the read, if you can use such a word. The dramatic title was my addition. :)

7Wannabe5
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Interesting. However, I'm not sure if I understand how the steep cliff on the other side of the oil production curve will relate to the end of opportunities for further growth for the oil industry?

My brain/systems-model is still stuck at figuring out what to do with the fact that even at their low-relative-to-current-petroleum EROEI, PVC's are more efficient than human labor fed on potatoes.

George the original one
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by George the original one »

If you look at oil production figures, the world still has not peaked. USA oil production made a huge turnaround (presumably due to fracking) beginning in 2008 and the yield curve isn't anywhere near beginning to deplete. OPEC countries are in a decline, but they won't decline that much unless a war knocks off their production and there's now a possibility fracking can be applied.

North Sea oil and some other regional oil fields of similar size are, however, in a serious production decline.

So... peak oil production is still somewhere out there in the future(*). There will be "ample" supply afterwards and it will likely cost more, but I doubt there will be a massive crisis unless there's an embargo of some sort.

(*) That's not to make light of peak oil. Oil will run out, just more uncertainty as to how soon. Next generation is going to hate us!

jacob
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by jacob »

Good stuff.

It's quite possible to keep producing while diverting resources from other parts of the economy and drawing those down in order to support the energy sector. This can be done via financial means (QE or stupid lending). Lend drillers cheap money, oil prices increase, people drive less... thus energy gets redirected towards drilling for scarce/hard to get/low EROEI resources; the energy sector booms for a while. EROEI is fine at <1 insofar it's not a primary source, think diesel fueled ambulances from calories that would otherwise be food. The distribution between eating and ambulance emergencies would be set by the market or the government. Indeed, as long as there's photosynthesis ... it is possible, in principle, to extract the next barrel of oil. The key measure is, however, whether the market wants to. This is what the OP paper is talking about.

Financial markets (in the US) can't support $100+ oil. We've seen that twice now (2008 and 2015). Trade accordingly. Oil companies now operate with a break-even barrel price around $55 (slightly higher than what it's trading.) and their strategies are about divesting or buybacks (i.e. musical chairs/greater fool/option compensation culture).

Timing (2022 or 2018 or 2028 or 2032) is tricky. There's a lot of slack in the system(*) but more importantly, we can't go by averages (like the link does). The Carter doctrine initiated this whole game back in the 1970s. Efficiency gains managed to push it off for a while (the 1990s) but once that spurt was over, it was necessary to go to war again. Which is where we still are now.

(*) Because the primary users (which is you, if you're reading this) are extremely wasteful.

If you go by averages you'll end up with 2022 or something like that, but if you're willing to play zero sum games and invade other countries, it's possible to push the date out a bit further for your tribe if you're willing to turn other tribes into ... soylent refugees. Zero-sum politics are typical for systems hitting their limits. Expect lots of populism over the following years with people/voters looking out for number one.

JamesR
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by JamesR »

@jacob:
Necessary to go to war again? Do you reckon that's why there's all this noise about Russia in this election? People instigating fake reasons to create tension between USA & Russia, and eventually instigate a war.

jacob
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by jacob »

We've been at war since 2003.

7Wannabe5
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Re: TEOTWAWKI - 2022

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I thought the robots already turned most of us into soylent refugees?

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