Dragline wrote:cmonkey wrote:Ego wrote:Kids born today will probably never drive a car.
A pretty bold suggestion and I tend to agree with it but not for the reason you believe. Grand kids perhaps. Self-driving cars have replaced flying cars after everyone figured out that wouldn't work. There is nothing beyond a few dog and pony shows put out by a couple of "super smart" companies to suggest they will be here on a mass scale within our lifetimes.
Yeah, I don't see this happening anytime soon in the US except on a very limited basis in some kind of "model community", largely for legal and cultural reasons. (Commercial trucking from depot-to-depot along major highways might be different.) It would be more likely to occur in modern places with strong governments like Singapore, Dubai or one of the newer cities in China. The key to making it work is really banning most human-driven cars and trucks in a given area and then normalizing all the streets in some machine-friendly manner.
I think Tesla has made a really nice strategic move by outfitting their fleet with all of the sensors, hardware needed for self-driving and feeding all the data back to HQ where it can be used as a training/testing/regression set. The gradual shift of collecting while humans drive -> collect while highway drive assist is on -> collect while full auto plus the ability to do a software update for an improved full auto which has been back, regression tested already sets Tesla up to introduce full auto years before the competition. As far as collecting driving, environment data goes: Tesla >> Google >> Auto Manufacturers. Self-driving is _already_ at mass scale (Model S, Model 3, Model X I mean), it's just not enabled (you already paid for it, assuming Tesla doesn't charge for the full auto software update).
https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self- ... tesla-cars
Banning human drivers and making streets machine-friendly would be nice, but Tesla, Google have known that it's not likely before they even started development for self-driving.
jacob wrote:While funny, I think that was a bit flippant. My point was, what happens when the web becomes "100% social media" widely adopting the norms and methods of social media. This means no more single standing websites (they will be social); no more news reporting (it will be algorithmically combined tweets); no forums (it will be a newsfeed that either limits thoughts to 140 characters or wants you to convert ideas that are longer then 3 sentences into a note); no search engines (because if it's important somebody will "share" it in the feed).
Well we can consider what happened as we transitioned from word of mouth, assemblies -> carrier services e.g. mail -> printing press -> telegraph -> telephone -> radio -> television -> internet/email/forums -> cell phones/texting -> social media silos (youtube, Vine, Twitter, Instagram, FB, snapchat). Kind of for better or worse.. More accessible communication mechanisms means the general public has grown in importance (consuming and producing).