Proliferation of Solar/Growth -- Actual News for Once

[Dragline]

I thought this was kind of extraordinary news, especially considering how far ahead Germany was just a few years ago:

http://www.economist.com/news/business/ ... llowthesun

There has been an ongoing debate over the past couple decades between the futurists and the peak energy folks as to whether the growth of renewables would happen quick enough to supplant fossil fuels. I always thought the latter (the "no" camp) had the better argument, but Kurzweil & Co. may be more or less correct again if this continues.

Thoughts? Is this story just wrong/misinformed?

[rube]

I saw a documentary on Dutch TV a few weeks ago about this subject. Also there the general message was very similar.
I hope it will go as predicted (or even faster) so we can have a fast(er) transition to renewable energy.

[SilverElephant]

Speaking as a German, the thing about all the countries that are now pulling ahead is that the bureaucratic threshold for both such mega-projects and household-level installations are much, much lower than in Germany. Add to that fact that the population density here is much higher, total solar energy flow is much lower (year-average) and Germans have a taste for over-engineering (must have newest panels with the highest efficiency with an earthquake-proof foundation), and you get slow overall progress.

Of course, absolute costs are still quite high and not affordable by just anyone. But I had a look at the paperwork to get a couple of panels on my dad's roof a few years back and it's an absolute nightmare. Obviously you can't just plug any source of electricity into the grid, but there's neighborhood construction codes, etc. etc.

The mega-projects are coming along and there are some solar farms here, but, as i said, land is a scarce resource.

[vexed87]

So long as renewable tech requires non-renewable resources, and fossil fuels for production, distribution and installation, how can they be sustainably manufactured and maintained in the long run and help us avoid societal calamity? I have not come across any compelling arguments on how we could manufacture any form of renewable tech on the scales required without fossil fuels. Not to mention managing the environmental impacts of the recycling and production of solar cells without copious amounts of cheap energy and willing participants.

Low tech wind and solar DIY projects (black painted and insulated metal cans piping hot water to the home, and wooden windmills and low voltage scavenged motors hooked up to car batteries) I could see working, but these fancy grid systems and high energy capture/storage? I do worry people have false hopes for high energy lifestyles in the future. Some of the comments on the article mention it, but home scale solar/wind would be far more effective/efficient than massively subsidized or cheap credit/state sponsored grid projects, a lot of energy is lost getting the electricity from solar plants to home.

I have been searching high and low and still haven't found a compelling argument for how high tech renewables could be rolled out fast enough to transition from fossil fuels on a grid level. Just lots of stories about cans being kicked down the road in favour of fracking/business as usual, at least here in the UK.

[ducknalddon]

So long as renewable tech requires non-renewable resources, and fossil fuels for production, distribution and installation, how can they be sustainably manufactured and maintained in the long run and help us avoid societal calamity?

Presumably if they required that much fossil fuel to manufacture then it would be reflected in the capital cost, then the economics wouldn't work.

[vexed87]

Exactly, that's why home scale DIY solutions and reducing our expectations of ever increasing energy consumption on the long term offers better long term prospects.

If we allow government and politicians to join the bandwagon of investing significant remaining fossil fuels/capital into non-viable 'renewable' grid systems, hoping that all the pieces will fall in to place later, we basically lock ourselves into an inefficient grid system with significantly less capacity and with all of the downsides of renewables. Actually the capital would be better invested in developing and implementing sustainable appropriate tech instead.

[ducknalddon]

I wasn't agreeing with you

[vexed87]

Ahh I see what you mean, well the energy extraction is cheap now, mainly due to credit bubble in fraking/shale, it won't be the case towards the tail end of hubbert's peak.

[7Wannabe5]

"Here is your breakfast fuel, Caroline." he said, laying his armful down by the stove. "Good hard sticks of hay. I guess they will burn all right."-

from "The Long Winter"- Laura Ingalls Wilder