Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

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Scrubby
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby » Tue Jul 14, 2015 3:01 am

Chad wrote:@Scrubby
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians are probably only a small variable in the equation. I'm not suggesting it's right, it's just how it's going to play out.
They are the ones living there, and the regime change was mostly initiated by them. This isn't like Iran or the other countries where the US have toppled governments and replaced them by puppet dictators. Sure, the US would prefer a government who is friendly to them, but in this case I think it's wrong to blame them for the invasion. Putin wants an empire and needs an enemy to distract his own people, and the revolt against his man in Ukraine gave him an excuse to take the areas he wanted.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Tue Jul 14, 2015 5:23 am

The CIA and SIS engineered coup against Mossadeq (Operation Ajax-the U.S. paid well-known underworld thugs and their minions to join in protest) in 1953 was the event that left many Iranians embittered and more willing to believe any sort of "hidden foreign hand" conspiracy theory. Prior to that, American policies and policy-makers were regarded as more fair and less high-handed than the British or Soviets. Of course, there is more than a bit of geography is destiny at play. Persian culture (of course, not to be in any way confused with the Shi'a branch of Islam) has survived through quite a few international puppet plays over the millennia. One difficulty I had, when I was frequently in the company of well-educated Iranians, was in trying to convince them that most Americans, including many of our fine democratically elected representatives, really are "that ignorant" of world history and the policies of their own government. The Bush II era, in particular, reinforced the belief that Americans "play dumb" in their open foreign policy, while something more intelligently-designed is going on behind the scenes. OTOH, it has also become increasingly easy to argue "No, we really are dumb." given, for instance, actions taken with knowledge that the openly stated policy/goal of Al Qaeda in relationship to the U.S. is to lead us into bankruptcy by way of the expense of interventionism and thereby, remove obstacle to primary objective of obliterating the Shi'a. And, of course, the likelihood that such an actually only quite recently ramped up white shirt/black shirt ideological excuse for conflict as the Shi'a/Sunni divide would have come into such malevolent being absent the U.S. support for the Al Saud dynasty...?

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cmonkey
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by cmonkey » Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:36 am

Chad wrote:One of the favorite conspiracy theories appears to be the Bretton Woods, Bilderberg, UN "Black helicopters", FEMA camps, aka...unelected elites running the world without our permission. I love this one in novels and movies (Mr. Robot is doing this very well). In reality ,it's probably just various official agreements happening to run together with unofficial and uncoordinated actions by wealthy/powerful people based on self-interest and the current system. Not some nefarious well organized elite cabal with an overarching goal they agree upon at a handful of yearly meetings.
After following this movement for a while, I tend to agree with this statement. Control freaks have always risen to power throughout history and today is no different other than the degree to which they can implement control. World-wide systems for transport, communication and economics allow for folks in power to push for world wide control. They are simply doing what they do best, as are the rest of us. Doesn't mean that what the 'world government' folks warn of isn't happening (on some levels) its just not happening due to the reasons they believe in. What less would you expect from the government of a country that is experiencing unrest/economic problems/general disgust in politics than black helicopters/militarized police/executive orders? Self-preservation.

Back to the OP, I find the most interesting of the conspiracy theories to be the 'dark side of the moon' camp which postulates the moon is in fact an alien spaceship/space station. :lol: They have some fairly tantalizing postulations.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by DSKla » Tue Jul 14, 2015 3:27 pm

I tend to fall in the category that believes governments and secret societies cannot realistically orchestrate vast, long-term conspiracies. This is partly due to incompetence, but partly due to the fact that the exact results are fudnamentally unpredictable. A small group of people may be able to orchestrate a conspiracy that involves a single event, like some of the false flag attacks that were linked earlier, but if it involves too many people, or is expected to have a predictable, controllable effect on a very large population for years or generations, I doubt there is any way the conspirators could achieve the desired result. Too many moving parts. I could potentially see them trying, and then getting an unintended result.

If you're talking about Templars or worldwide secret societies of elites, even the best-laid plans are going to be affected by things beyond their control and take unwanted turns. If their plan is to make subtle moves and constantly adjust as opportunities present themselves, I think that mas more potential, but it seems ultimately doomed. They'd spend more and more time dealing with unintended consequences or events beyond their control that influenced the state of affairs.

I think the scope of effective conspiracies would be rather small. Larger ones are bound to be exposed or unravel. None of that means that people won't try, or that the results won't negatively impact us. I just can't see anyone being able to steer things exactly their way for very long, regardless of how competent they are.

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Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad » Tue Jul 14, 2015 5:19 pm

Scrubby wrote:
Chad wrote:@Scrubby
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians are probably only a small variable in the equation. I'm not suggesting it's right, it's just how it's going to play out.
They are the ones living there, and the regime change was mostly initiated by them. This isn't like Iran or the other countries where the US have toppled governments and replaced them by puppet dictators. Sure, the US would prefer a government who is friendly to them, but in this case I think it's wrong to blame them for the invasion. Putin wants an empire and needs an enemy to distract his own people, and the revolt against his man in Ukraine gave him an excuse to take the areas he wanted.
All of that is true to varying degrees. It's also true the US/NATO had a hand in pushing the Ukrainians forward. Without it this push it's probable the revolution doesn't succeed.

The US tried something similar early in the decade.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/n ... kraine.usa

Recent uprising.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... st-s-fault

The leaders of the rebels believe they have the backing of the US/NATO.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

Obviously, Putin isn't the good guy here, but the US/NATO hardly have the moral high ground. The US/NATO has been trying to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence for a while. This is quite literally poking the bear. Neither the US/NATO or Russia actually care what the Ukrainians want.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny » Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:47 pm

We're only allowed to pick one? ;)

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fiby41
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by fiby41 » Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:10 am

jennypenny wrote:We're only allowed to pick one? ;)
Not if you deem all of them equally likely to be true.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny » Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:35 pm

Has anyone been following the story of that guy who died in his car in California under mysterious circumstances? You know, the one in Palisades who had the large cache of weapons at his house. His GF now says he was part alien. The whole thing is straight out of X Files.

I'm really hoping he's an alien, or CIA, or an alien working for the CIA. :D

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by ffj » Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:58 pm

I read an article from Yahoo about it. I think it is bullshit they took all of his guns and ammo. Unless something else has come up since then. That was his personal property that he legally owned. Is there an angle we don't know about?

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jennypenny
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny » Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:14 pm

ffj wrote:I think it is bullshit they took all of his guns and ammo. Unless something else has come up since then. That was his personal property that he legally owned. Is there an angle we don't know about?
That's SOP these days. They also took all of his cash, even though they said they had no reason to suspect he was doing anything illegal. Total bullshit.

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Ego
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Ego » Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:02 pm

jennypenny wrote:Has anyone been following the story of that guy who died in his car in California under mysterious circumstances? You know, the one in Palisades who had the large cache of weapons at his house. His GF now says he was part alien. The whole thing is straight out of X Files.

I'm really hoping he's an alien, or CIA, or an alien working for the CIA. :D
Meh. That's not a conspiracy. In SoCal we call that Tuesday.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby » Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:40 am

Chad wrote:Obviously, Putin isn't the good guy here, but the US/NATO hardly have the moral high ground. The US/NATO has been trying to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence for a while. This is quite literally poking the bear. Neither the US/NATO or Russia actually care what the Ukrainians want.
In my opinion the side who is pro democracy and openness automatically has the moral high ground. It doesn't matter much if they benefit from it themselves. In this case it is the US and partly the EU.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Spartan_Warrior » Wed Jul 29, 2015 5:22 am

Scrubby wrote:the side who is pro democracy and openness... In this case it is the US...
Sorry, just choked on my tea a little. Carry on! :lol:

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Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad » Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:13 am

@Scrubby
This isn't about any form of ideological battle between US/EU and Russia. It's a pure and simple power play on both sides. Russia has more to lose, thus the Russian troops being involved and not the American/NATO troops.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:32 am

Chad wrote:This isn't about any form of ideological battle between US/EU and Russia. It's a pure and simple power play on both sides. Russia has more to lose, thus the Russian troops being involved and not the American/NATO troops.
You are of course free to think so, but I think every country in Europe that you would say is in the "US sphere of influence" ultimately sees NATO and their good relations with the US as a guarantee for their freedom. The US is no saint, but the alternative is much worse.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jacob » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:08 am

Google "pipeline wars X", where X is any "country of interest": Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan.

Of course, since war is only a continuation of politics when all other means have been exhausted, also google "pipeline politics X", where X is any "country of interest": Greece, Turkey, ...

Also try some names for X instead of countries, e.g. Putin, Nuland, Tsipras, ...

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Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:25 am

@Scrubby
The US empire is more benign than other current options. This is definitely true. Though, I'm not sure how many boxes the US checks off in it's own democracy/freedom checklist. If it were a pure democracy would a Clinton and a Bush really be the candidates? This also changes the discussion, yet again.

It would be awesome if your moral argument was how the US operated. If democracy, freedom, individual rights, etc. were the main deciding factors for the US in events at these levels of interaction. Unfortunately, they are secondary at best. The US history in Iran, Iraq, South Korea, Vietnam, South and Central America, Saudi Arabia, etc. all suggest that the US's first concern isn't democracy or freedom. It should also be noted that if Germany democratically voted to join a new Warsaw Pact the US wouldn't be "ok" with it, just because it was democratic. State actors always act in their best interest first, which means it's always all about power before it's about anything else.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:00 am

Chad wrote:It should also be noted that if Germany democratically voted to join a new Warsaw Pact the US wouldn't be "ok" with it, just because it was democratic. State actors always act in their best interest first, which means it's always all about power before it's about anything else.
I'm sure they wouldn't like it, but I doubt they'd go to war. Of course, there's a reason why the countries that have switched sides since the fall of the wall have all gone the same way, and why those who haven't seldom have fair elections.

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Riggerjack
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:01 pm

Well, it's not exactly a conspiracy, but corporate sponsorship of "opposition".
Waste Management's sponsorship of the Sierra Club, who then push for recycling and landfill regulation, for example. The CEO of WM has come out and actually said that regulation has been very good for business.

Every profitable business is interested in barriers to entry to protect what they have from competition. I know when VZ was getting video franchises for the Fios rollout, the rule was that we wouldn't accept any deal where our franchise tax was higher than cable's. It didn't matter how high the tax was, what mattered was that the tax not make us uncompetitive. Any area where the tax could be negotiated below that of the local cable company, would get priority for the rollout.

With that in mind, I can see a confluence of interests between oil companies, the peak oil crowd, and environmentalists. Higher oil prices are in all of their interests. I'm not saying that oil companies are funding opposition to refinery development. But it would make sense. By capping refinery output, you limit supply. If I ran Shell, I'd fund a group of hippies to shut down the BP (or whoever's) new refinery with legal and political antics. That would just be prudent. Hiding the donation thru multiple charity foundations would be prudent, too.

This is about the highest level conspiracy I can believe possible. Anything more intricate or involved or criminal will fall apart for the same reasons listed in posts above.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by enigmaT120 » Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:25 pm

Riggerjack wrote: With that in mind, I can see a confluence of interests between oil companies, the peak oil crowd, and environmentalists. Higher oil prices are in all of their interests. I'm not saying that oil companies are funding opposition to refinery development. But it would make sense. By capping refinery output, you limit supply.
Loosening sanctions against Iran will screw all of them up, then.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:20 pm

Loosening sanctions against Iran will screw all of them up, then.
Not really. Sanctions change where Iranian oil is sold, but even without sanctions, it wouldn't come to the States. My point was more to do with retail price, rather than wholesale.

When gas prices went up suddenly, last decade, there was much DC saber rattling. In theory this is consumer protection, but really it is a Congressional fund raiser. "Someone has made a bundle of money, and didn't cut us in!" In such a case, oil companies can point to refinery capacity, that supply is constrained, but it is constrained by the environmental lobby." See gouging prices were caused by your supporters" is an instant deflator of Congressional blather.

That is why it is worth paying to fund the "opposition". They stop growth of supply, and protect against " consumer protection " racketeering. If they ever hit too close to home, you cut off their funding, and fund a splinter group.

I have zero evidence to support my crazy conspiracy theory, mind you. It's just too simple and efficient to not be happening. Any company big enough to have a lobbying arm must be doing some version of this.

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Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad » Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:48 am

@Riggerjack
Your overall theory is why so many people seem to fall in love with big complex conspiracy theories, but as you noted it's really just people and organizations doing things in their own self interest within a system that sometimes makes strange bedfellows. The peak oil crowd and Exxon aren't going to form a SPECTRE like organization with a guy in a wheel chair petting a white cat as it's leader. Though, as you noted, they could find common ground with certain issues. For instance, with the amount of money Chevron has dumped into the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia, it wouldn't be surprising if some anti-coal/climate change groups got a little cash from a Chevron shell company to push Asian countries towards the cleaner natural gas solution.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/ ... 5220150707

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny » Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:32 pm

I'm not sure if these are true, but I'm absorbed in them right now ...

-- I just read the Missing 411 books. Spooky, and sad. Whether you agree with Paulides's conclusions or not, there sure are a lot of missing people out there. I won't get a wink of sleep the next time I go camping in the woods. :lol:

-- At last count, I have 432 emails saved from prepper friends regarding the SHTF event predicted for September. If you haven't heard, you can read about it here (crazy prepper site -- you've been warned). I've gotten emails about stuff that I haven't read about on the main stream prepper sites. Weird coincidences. Lots of them. Even a lot of my Catholic acquaintances will admit that they've entertained the possibility that Pope Francis really is the last Pope and wonder if this is it.

At least I won't have to wait long to see if the second one is true. :D

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Ego » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:29 pm

jennypenny wrote:I'm not sure if these are true, but I'm absorbed in them right now ...

If you haven't heard, you can read about it here (crazy prepper site -- you've been warned).
Remarkable! The ability to generate fear by connecting the dots between.... numerology (the number 7), a handful of bronze age beliefs, the Pope meeting the black ruler of the world, a French diplomat's prediction that we have 500 days to solve our climate problems and a Madonna concert.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

In contrast to an epiphany, an apophany (i.e., an instance of apophenia) does not provide insight into the nature of reality or its interconnectedness but is a "process of repetitively and monotonously experiencing abnormal meanings in the entire surrounding experiential field".


Amplify apophenia using the internet and you've got https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_hysteria

In sociology and psychology mass hysteria (also known as collective hysteria, group hysteria, or collective obsessional behavior) refers to collective delusions of threats to society that spread rapidly through rumors and fear.

He forgot to include the most important holiday in September on that list. September 13th is....
http://www.holidayinsights.com/moreholi ... ionday.htm

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jennypenny
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:50 am

Ego wrote:Remarkable! The ability to generate fear by connecting the dots between.... numerology (the number 7), a handful of bronze age beliefs, the Pope meeting the black ruler of the world, a French diplomat's prediction that we have 500 days to solve our climate problems and a Madonna concert.
You wouldn't believe what else is in the mix that I didn't list because I don't want to offend anyone or derail the thread. A prepper friend and I have been watching all of this with fascination and a giant bowl of popcorn. That said, there's no denying that the last 10 days of September are chock-a-block with political events, and an incident during any one of them could ignite the hysteria you mentioned.

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