How popular could extreme FIRE become?

[subgard]

I'm curious, how popular could the MMM/ERE method of FIRE become?

Or, how long until most young people graduating high school know it's an option?

Also, what percentage of the population has the motivation and capability to carry out early FIRE?

[workathome]

I think it could get a huge following among the young/Hipster-type crowd if they heard about it.

[jacob]

It's not exactly a new method. It's possible to find similar movements popping up every 40 years or so going back over a century. They coincide with the decade following a major economic crash. Somehow this makes people look inwards to see if chasing productivity is really all worth it. Once the economy recovers, most followers abandon it again.

Most young people graduating high school don't even know what the recommended percentage for IRA/401k savings for a traditional retirement. Until the powers that be deem that financial education of the middle class is actually in their best interest, this will remain so. In short, they'll never know.
The internet is somewhat of a game changer here. Previously people would have to pick up an arcane book or invent the concepts from scratch. Now they might come across the idea on facebook or twitter. Even mainstream media seems to at least be aware of the concept even if they still pass it off as something crazy.
In that sense, FIRE could grow to be as popular as minimalism, world travel, foodieism, and similar large fringe groups.

In terms of percentages, I'd say around 3% has the motivation and capability to go against the herd and succeed in doing so. If it becomes widely popular, just about everybody has the capability and the motivation. 97% of the human race operates in terms of copying the herd which doesn't take much effort and is strongly motivated to do so.

[sky]

If FIRE concepts became included in a minimalist lifestyle movement, or a sustainable, ecological living movement, then it could rapidly become a goal that many strive for, or at least speak in favor of. I am surprised by the number of people I hear talking about how too many things (possessions) are causing them stress and how less is more. This past weekend, a person who I thought was totally committed to the consumer lifestyle started talking about not buying things and thinking twice about a purchase.

I don't watch TV or do Facebook, sometimes I wonder about the type of popular movements that I don't know about.

Permaculture, No Car, Low Car, Ecology, Homesteading, Gardeners, Sustainability, Simple Living, Minimalism, Tiny Houses, Recyclers, Green Urbanists, Environmentalists, Renewable Energy

When you take any of these anti-consumerism ideals, and combine it with FIRE, it becomes a very powerful tool to create a meaningful lifestyle with low expenses.

I don't think FIRE in itself creates meaning, but escaping from the mentality that meaning comes from purchases leads to finding meaning in writing, art, research, dance, social interaction, learning, making, gardening and spending time contemplating or meditating.

[George the original one]

In one sense, it's always been popular in certain locations. Coastal communities where people would rather surf, make art, fish, boat, or hunt instead of holding a regular job, so you see a number of people who subsist. Yeah, subsistence isn't exactly FI, but result is similar and some subsistence people manage to collect assets that eventually lead to FI (forest plots, beach cabin rentals, etc.).

[jacob]

In that regard, wrt surfers and beach combers, I could see this taking off with software developers and become a material if not dominant force because

1) Many make very good money.
2) Many are INT*
3) Many frequent the obscure corners of the internet.

That's some good odds.

[subgard]

The big difference in frugally FIREing and previous simple living movements is the savings and investment part. My reaction to all the other simple living ideas (minimalism, homesteading, etc.) is "Eh, I guess that's a good idea."
My reaction to "You can buy your freedom long before traditional retirement age." is "Holy cow! Sign me up!"
Also, there are few personal consequences to backsliding on any other kind of simple living. But backsliding on FI would endanger your freedom.

I've heard of a lot of people that were former hippies and commune dwellers, but I've never heard of any financially independent person (that worked to get there on his/her own) backslide into consumerism and lose their freedom.

That's why I think this thing has legs - because of the savings/investment part of it.

[Seneca]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

Personally I don't think ERE will ever be voluntarily practiced in the mainstream by enough to get to the tipping point. (I use dieting megafads with weight megatrends as exhibit A) I do think a hybrid basic frugality and MMM sort of thing could somehow eventually break the odds and become much more common. This is basically Franklin ideals with hygiene and the internet. I think this is possible only because capital is again becoming so much more valuable than labor.

The real question is where do you think society is going?

[jacob]

@Seneca - Have you noticed that MMM and ERE are both written by immigrants? We might look crazy in the US but where we grew up we're not that strange. MMM is basically "first world ex US"-lifestyle with a high income in the US. ERE is basically "second world"-lifestyle with an average income in the US. We're separated from US mainstream lifestyles by one and two Wheatons respectively.

From the looks of it, the rest of the developed world is rapidly becoming more like the US. The world is increasingly getting more financialized. Because of the movement of the average in one direction and a natural counter-reaction coupled with the financialization, the people will be separated into have-nots and have-yachts. Alternatively, the free and the not-free.

[Seneca]

@Seneca - Have you noticed that MMM and ERE are both written by immigrants? We might look crazy in the US but where we grew up we're not that strange. MMM is basically "first world ex US"-lifestyle with a high income in the US. ERE is basically "second world"-lifestyle with an average income in the US. We're separated from US mainstream lifestyles by one and two Wheatons respectively.

From the looks of it, the rest of the developed world is rapidly becoming more like the US. The world is increasingly getting more financialized and separated into the have-nots and the have-yachts.

MMM is only technically an immigrant if you ask me. A western Canadian will culturally have far more in common with a Mountain West American (where MMM settled) than a Quebecois. You on the other hand, bring a more unique experience due to your background.

I definitely do notice your latter statement. I traveled internationally quite a lot from 2000-2010. Even over that short time, the world became much more US-looking. Particularly China/certain parts of SEA. The US is ahead of these areas in labor falling behind capital.

[subgard]

So, will it cause a brain drain in certain industries dominated by INT personalities? The people with the ability to FIRE are probably the most productive workers.

"Where'd your software engineers go?"

"Strangest thing, they all retired to a Mexican fishing village."

[stand@desk]

We are the 3%! (said in the tone and conviction of the Occupy Movement)

[Dragline]

Walk Awaaaaaay and join the 3%!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_01qgW9qHL8

[jacob]

@Seneca - Yes, a lot has happened in the past 20 years. I got my first visa card in 1993 so that I could order English language books from abroad. I felt quite like the international man of mystery. I was the only person I knew who had one(*). When I left the country in 2000, it was possible to apply for consumer credit loans on big ticket items like a TV but it was still frowned upon. Now, I understand that very many people have a variable interest rate mortgage and that leasing cars is a normal thing to do.

(*) Funny story, I went to the US in 1999 and used my card to buy groceries. The cashier asked me "credit or debit?" Having no idea what the difference was, I asked and the answer was: "one means you sign and the other means you put in your pin code"

[EdithKeeler]

If FIRE concepts became included in a minimalist lifestyle movement, or a sustainable, ecological living movement, then it could rapidly become a goal that many strive for, or at least speak in favor of. I am surprised by the number of people I hear talking about how too many things (possessions) are causing them stress and how less is more. This past weekend, a person who I thought was totally committed to the consumer lifestyle started talking about not buying things and thinking twice about a purchase.

You know, I hear a lot of people talking about this as well. But like so many things, I think it’s more words than action. It’s easy to talk about; it’s much, much harder to swim against the current and DO it.

I have a friend who (says) she despises her job, and yearns to move to a farm in flyover country, grow some food, have her husband work as a high school teacher while she stays home with the kids. She worries about the ecological impact of her long commute every day. And yet, a day after this conversation, she’ll tell me about the money that she’s spent in planning an elaborate birthday party for a 12 year old that would probably be just as happy with a cake and some friends over if someone would set the kid’s expectations accordingly.

Another friend’s husband just lost his job for the third time. Worry and handwringing are the order of the day, just like before. They cut back drastically while he doesn’t work, and go on a crazy spending spree (we’re talking upscale new cars here, times 2) when he gets employed again. The next job loss, handwringing and panic, yet if they’d kept their same level of spending as they did during the lean times, they’d have plenty of cushion.

Another friend bemoans time not spent with her kids because of long hours at work. “I want to be a stay at home mom” she says. Yet she just enrolled them in the most expensive private school in the city, and she’s the primary breadwinner.

I guess I’m cynical. I don’t think that it will catch on as a wider movement because 1) the pull of advertising and the propaganda of what life is “supposed” to look like is too strong –“the man on the television tells me how white my shirts can be” and 2) peer pressure (and family pressure) can be strong: “you can’t live in a tent—it’s dangerous!” and 3) it takes some work to educate yourself how to do things differently, whether it’s investing, fixing things yourself, etc. The vast majority of people don't want to spend the time, IMHO.

[1taskaday]

I consistently "goad" challenge my teens with;

"I will manage to be retired/FI at 50 how early do you think you will be able to?"

Naturally my DH berates me for trying to "interfere" in their lives, but more than anything else in the world I want them to have the freedom to choose.

I will continually put people who achieve FI on a pedestal in front of them and eventually this "brainwashing" may stick.

But I do think that unless they are INTJ personality types it may all go over their heads when they start earning for themselves and mixing with their earning peers...

[subgard]

I was thinking it would be similar to something like vegetarian/veganism.
A large chunk of the majority knows about it and disapproves.
Another large chunk of the majority knows about it and thinks of it positively (but doesn't actually practice it).
And a small minority actually practices it.
But everybody knows about it.

Or simply Eating Right and Exercising. Everybody knows about it, but most people don't really do it.

Or even saving for traditional retirement. Everbody knows about it, not many do it.

[Felix]

Five scenarios:

1) As the middle class diminishes, the ERE skills will become more valuable just to get by and it will require more and more extreme approaches to achieve FI. Some will use it to allow for a switch into upper class for their kids. Chances for this working will become less as work income is increasingly crouded out by capital income and the idea will fade out due to lack of practicality.

2) Through political change the middle class survives and the MMM style approach to early retirement will become very common, the ERE style more among those more determined by personality and those lower in income.

3) Climate change will make sustainability culturally mandatory despite the best marketing efforts. This would imply a more resource-saving approach to life in general and put a greater price tag on ERE skills.

4) A new war over resources / a new plague created by modern animal farming practices would bring global economies to a halt. ERE is the least of your problems but the skills come in handy.

5) Technological developments in robotics and computer science render most jobs obsolete, Basic income makes it either politically or after a violent revolt.