Opinions on current investment landscape?

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George the original one
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Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Opinions on current investment landscape?

Post by George the original one »

PhotoJ89 wrote:
George the original one wrote:
PhotoJ89 wrote:I'd be happy to move 50+% of my NW into index funds after we see a ~50% crash in stocks.
Disabuse yourself of this notion. Even the 2007-08 crash, the biggest one since 1929, was only 35% and it took a year or more to play out. Most people who had cash to play with were too scared to buy.

I put 10k into junior gold miner stocks in December, which were 65% off their August highs at the time. Everyone was calling for gold to retest it's 2015 low or even go below $1,000. Sentiment was overwhelmingly negative on every front. Also put money into Uranium miners at the depths of the most brutal bear market in the history of the sector.
That's the difference between delving deeper than "the market" and working on information within a sector. Yes, it's easier to find 50% sale prices on individual stocks or within sectors. I saw such an opportunity with WDC and took it around about August. However you're highly unlikely to find 50% sale prices on a broad-based index... it's called diversification and protects you from wild swings of being too heavily concentrated if you don't have the time/desire to analyze things more closely.

Looking for killer moves by timing them, like your gold mining stocks, also makes it difficult to secure an income. The timing of such moves is not going to align with paying bills, so it's necessary to carry a larger than normal cash reserve. Holding bonds or dividend paying stocks or rental properties provides an income stream.

steveo73
Posts: 1733
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: Opinions on current investment landscape?

Post by steveo73 »

@PhotoJ89

Firstly predicting the future is inherently difficult. Just say you are right though. There may come a time where everything is so cheap we can live of basically nothing monetarily and live a life of leisure. Your conclusion could be really wrong even if your premise comes true.

My bet is that you have it all wrong and the future will be very different to your prediction.

El Duderino
Posts: 177
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:24 pm

cash

Post by El Duderino »

I've been holding cash for almost a year now, having previously been investing a set amount each month. Current investments are still set to DRIP.

At first it was just having a bigger cash fund for a move and job change, then it was about saving enough for the deposit on a house. Now ought to be the time to resume buying and even catch up to 2016 targets but I'm apprehensive because everything seems bonkers right now politically and monetarily with the pivot to more nationalism.

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