Trump is president...how can we make money?

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Spartan_Warrior
Posts: 1548
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2011 1:24 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Spartan_Warrior » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:45 pm

For me it's more like another lesson in the seeming impossibility of profitable AND moral investing.

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 1045
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Sclass » Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:28 pm

I'm increasing my exposure to industrial robots.

User avatar
Dragline
Posts: 4114
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Dragline » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:43 pm

I am thinking that shortly after his inauguration may be the best time to buy AMZN, FB, APPL and GOOG. They are already dragging from lack of interest, but the short-term politics has nothing to do with their businesses long-term.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3697
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Chad » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:45 pm

Agreed on tech. AMZN is really getting it right now and I'm really hopping AAPL continues to go down, as the next phone is probably the one everyone will want (looks like lots of changes including physical).

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 8821
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jacob » Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:49 am

Today's open was small opposite moves of everything that has happened suggesting a new plateau has been reached.

George the original one
Posts: 4128
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by George the original one » Fri Nov 11, 2016 11:58 am

jacob wrote:Today's open was small opposite moves of everything that has happened suggesting a new plateau has been reached.
Agreed.

chicago81
Posts: 252
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 3:24 pm
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by chicago81 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:50 pm

The trend of the smaller cap equities vastly outperforming the larger companies seems to be continuing. S&P500 is down, meanwhile the Russel 2000 is soaring. This usually doesn't happen.

User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 5111
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jennypenny » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:32 am

@chicago81 -- My only guess is that it's in anticipation of Trump relaxing rules on smaller businesses and renegotiating trade deals, but I find some of the moves this week puzzling.

IlliniDave
Posts: 1424
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:00 am

Big Government and Big Regulation give the inside track to big corporations, one of the ironies of the belief that more government and more rules will somehow level the playing field. I have no idea if anticipation of less government and fewer rules is why we're having this short burst of relative outperformance of small-caps in the wake of Trump's win. History is full of periods where small-cap out performs large, and many authorities believe that small-cap outperformance over time is a consistent, dependable phenomenon. IIRC small-caps had taken a beating in recent weeks and generally lagged large-caps since 2007-2009, so at some point a reversal is arguably expected. Hard to draw much of a conclusion from less than a week's worth of data other than to say maybe the speculators speculated wrong about the election and are busy re-speculating about the future, perhaps correctly, perhaps not.

User avatar
cmonkey
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by cmonkey » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:57 am

More of last week. Financials, Cons Disc, Industrials are all up again. Dow 19K look plausible?! Bond proxies continue their fall and seem to be getting back to their pre-run up levels.

I am hoping for a pullback in the sectors that have jumped, since they have jumped so quickly.

User avatar
bryan
Posts: 505
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by bryan » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:27 pm

Main thing keeping me from taking any drastic measures (selling off) is the assurance that "capitalism" will prevail. Truly a psychological test..

User avatar
bryan
Posts: 505
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by bryan » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:43 pm

On the other thread, there was some talk about Thiel (gay, Libertarian, strategy master, etc). He is the wildcard Trump earpiece, I think.

For Thiel's stance on some things, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsXFwy6gG_4 (lots of related videos in the sidebar to continue your watching)

He could be the explanation that certain tech stocks are going down..

User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 5111
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jennypenny » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:52 am

I'm so confused and have no idea how to make money on this yet. Frustrating.

User avatar
cmonkey
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by cmonkey » Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:23 pm

I guess the picture I've formed is that the first few days after election gave us a flash glimpse of where the money wants to go and will in the medium term. Since it happened so quickly, I think there is going to be a pullback over the next few months but then start flowing that way again. Financials were already going that way since inflation is ticking up and wages are rising. Materials would also benefit from this.

We'll see how it goes. Keep in mind I've only been doing this for a year now. :P

User avatar
bryan
Posts: 505
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by bryan » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:14 pm

My gamble will be to take some short term profit on this Trump president-elect market after thanksgiving and then make a few bets that he will not win the electoral college. The big unknown in this scenario is who (3rd place finisher) do the GOP faithless electors want to put to the House to be chosen over Trump? Also there would be the air of uncertainty with Trump losing and if the 3rd place man is not a clear favourite going into the House.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 8821
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jacob » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:40 pm

The moves so far suggest that the market believes the following:
1) Interest rates are going to be raised. (Why the USD is up.)
2) The GOP has received a blank check to facilitate the difference between D and R policies. (The $deltas = market(R policy-D policy) + market(T policy-D policy) ... the positive moves in infrastructure can be attributed to Trump as can the negative moves the food industry. The rest is typical R-D differences.

What is not priced in, at least not that much, are possible reneging on trade agreements. These would hurt tech and the dollar (both will go down) but shale gas would go up (because energy imports would be more expensive), so those would be the next trades if it indeed does happen. I don't know if T is seriously going to go for it, so I'm not speculating on it. Unlike interest rates, which I feel confident about, this is much more up in the air (beyond my sphere of perceived competence.)

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 8821
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jacob » Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:17 am

Murmurs about stagflation are increasing ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... presidency

Graphs indicate inflation going to ~2% and growth going to ~0%. Not quite the 1970s, but maybe worth it to start thinking about positioning. Most of these articles now seem to attribute it to Trump policies, but these things were ramping up before the election already.

The classical investment conclusions of the 1970s were the PP and the Alpha Strategy.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 216
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by black_son_of_gray » Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:05 pm

@Jacob: FWIW, talk about stagflation is very seasonal and these murmurs are right on time.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?g ... tagflation

User avatar
bryan
Posts: 505
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by bryan » Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:51 pm

Anyone see that xe.com showing Yuan inflating 9%? Other sources not showing that yet..
bryan wrote:My gamble will be to take some short term profit on this Trump president-elect market after thanksgiving and then make a few bets that he will not win the electoral college. The big unknown in this scenario is who (3rd place finisher) do the GOP faithless electors want to put to the House to be chosen over Trump? Also there would be the air of uncertainty with Trump losing and if the 3rd place man is not a clear favourite going into the House.
Another one: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/opini ... trump.html

Guess I need to make my aforementioned trades (and figure out exactly what they are other than taking profit from Nov) this week..

User avatar
Gilberto de Piento
Posts: 814
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:36 am

@Jacob: FWIW, talk about stagflation is very seasonal and these murmurs are right on time.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?g ... tagflation
That chart is great. There's a larger peak every spring and a smaller one every fall. Since the first "related topic" is AP US History these searches may not have much to do with economics.

User avatar
Dragline
Posts: 4114
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Dragline » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:48 am

It appears the best way to trade is going to be front-running his tweets with options, at least for those on the inside. BA was down 1% at open due to this morning's missive.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3697
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Chad » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:51 am

So, a hyper fast internet connection close to the appropriate source with a program that automatically scans Trump's tweets and alerts a trader to the tweet might be the new Flash Boys?

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 8821
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 73
Contact:

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by jacob » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:07 am

People already do this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/net-us-u ... 2Y20130423

The bottom instantly fell out of the markets. The news agencies already provide their news in a machine-digestible format and algos trade on certain keywords. This is also why the market reaction is instantaneous for FOMC releases. The trading strategy has been predetermined based on various trigger words. Algos read twitter too.

User avatar
Dragline
Posts: 4114
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Dragline » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:15 am

Better to find out before he sends it. It's probably still legal to trade that way, too, unless he is an insider to the subject company.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3697
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Trump is president...how can we make money?

Post by Chad » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:15 pm

Figures someone already does this. I'm sure that's all these people do is sit around trying to figure out how to use the algos in some new way. Trump Twitter was too obvious.

I wonder how many insiders actually "approve" his tweets? I would bet not many.

Post Reply