I recently downloaded some free systems simulation software, and I had fun making a model that simulates what might happen over 40 years if you start with $X in equity, withdraw $Y/year, and earn $Z from a side-gig/year with assumption that yearly return on US index fund can be represented with Random Normal function with mean of .07 and SD of .14 and max of .6 and min of -.5. *
Here is the link to the free fun toy (er, I mean free useful tool, forgot my audience for a moment.)
It's a multi-purpose tool. I intend to use it to construct some more complex systems models involving potatoes and polyamory in the near future.
* I have little clue whether these are even vaguely valid assumptions. I just quickly pulled numbers off the internet. Worst case scenario I hit with this model under limited number of runs with 4% withdrawal and no side-gig income was being down to around 70% of initial equity before climbing again. Adding post-retirement yearly side gig income equivalent to even less than 1% of initial equity ($800/yr post-retirement income with $100,000 initial equity) did have more influence on the results than you might guesstimate. This system did a fairly good job of self-insuring the ability to cover a $30,000 one time expense such as hip-replacement around 20 years out.
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