Brexit

[radamfi]

Now we have a pro-remain Prime Minister, fully expect that the UK going forward will still have strong ties with the EU going forward.

Full disengagement is highly unlikely and we are likely to emulate Norway and Switzerland's bilateral agreements with the EU.

She wasn't really that pro-remain and cunningly kept quiet during the referendum campaign. The rhetoric is not good and the Brexit minister is staunch Eurosceptic. There is now strong lobbying by elements of the Leave campaign to insist on "full Brexit" with no freedom of movement.

[vexed87]

Regardless, there are many powerful and vested interest lobbying for open borders. Don't forget who holds the power in this country, certainly not the working classes who want to raise the draw bridge to protect low skill wages. No doubt Tories (representing the interests of business owners and capitalists) prefer to see that the UK remains competitive on the global stage and will not stand for closed borders. Its too soon to see how this will play out, but no doubt they will say one thing, and do the other as political parties always do.

Tories do not value big government or regulations, hence their euro-skepticism. I'd be highly surprised if freedom of movement was hindered much at all as this falls in the way of the ambitions to keep the UK productive. That's not to say they won't introduce layers bureaucracy (visas) as a facsimile of 'control' to appease the proletariat. More paperwork may be necessary, but would this perturb the determined?

Its not only @vexed87 that you can blame (here) for this. I also voted leave

So thanks to you I may not be able to retire to other European countries, or at least as easily as I could now.

Thanks for ruining my life.

I'd like to point out your difficulties of becoming a dutch national could be interpreted as not really being the fault of Britain's democratic decision to leave the EU, but rather of the Netherlands' conditions for applying for dutch citizenship. There will be other nations in Europe which do not have such stringent requirements. I hear the French Foreign Legion is still recruiting...

[BRUTE]

I hear the French Foreign Legion is still recruiting...

yea. French citizenship after 5 years or first combat injury ("Français par le sang versé", "French by spilled blood").

ask brute how he knows.

[radamfi]

I'd like to point out your difficulties of becoming a dutch national could be interpreted as not really being the fault of Britain's democratic decision to leave the EU, but rather of the Netherlands' conditions for applying for dutch citizenship. There will be other nations in Europe which do not have such stringent requirements. I hear the French Foreign Legion is still recruiting...

My goal is to retire in the Netherlands. Until now, British citizenship is sufficient to do that. Hopefully that will be the case in the future if we get a Norwegian/Swiss deal. So becoming a Dutch national would not have been important, although I would be interested in acquiring that once I became eligible for it. But in the event of a "full Brexit", I would then have to resort to looking at other ways to gain residency which is why that was discussed earlier in the thread. The issue is that the Netherlands don't allow people from outside the EU to live there unless you have a valid purpose, such as work or study or have a relative there. The UK has similar restrictions. I thought Belgium was a loophole but having looked more closely it appears you have to a previous connection to the country. The only reason for going somewhere else in Europe would be to live there enough time to acquire an EU passport which would then allow me to move to the Netherlands. By that stage I might be quite old.

BTW, I'm already too old to join the Foreign Legion.

[BRUTE]

brexit is volatility. brute wouldn't worry about losing the Netherlands option until that's actually so tbh. once all the feuding and puffing blows over, both UK and EU will get together because it makes economic sense. and even if not, there's plenty of other nice countries with excellent cheese out there.

[vraxxos]

The intellectual and current affluent liberal-left suffer from a massive disconnect with the real experiences of the working classes outside London and other economic powerhouse areas.

As opposed to our own political elite who can't even look beyond the greater London area?

The majority DO NOT benefit from open borders and suppressed wages that follow, failing public institutions and the EUs neoliberal agenda are the icing on the cake.

Welcome to globalisation, whether borders are open or not, all advanced economies are suffering the effects of competition and suppressed wages.

We can argue until the cows come home that these problems are basic failures of past and present government policy and not the fault of the EU. The NHS, council housing capacity and overcrowded schools are at breaking point, and yes, it is percived to be xenophobic to suggest that immigration is the reason for this, however what has the EU parliament done to intervene?

You can't have it both ways. You can't complain about the EU being too intrusive in internal affairs, but yet complain when the EU do nothing about what is a truly domestic matter!

The EU is a vassal for the plurocrats and coprorate interests, it has been twisted and contorted from it's roots as a economic trading area, this is why many older voters who remember the ECs inception have voted to leave it in its current form.

ALL successful modern economies are vassals for corporate interests. In fact, by voting to leave the EU, if anything, this country is going to be run even more so for corporate interests thanks to the Corporation tax cut.

The direction of EU policy is controlled by uncountable and unelected presidents with no safe guards from corruption. Don't quote me on this but I read that 95% of EU spending is not audited.

As opposed to our unelected head of state, our unelected upper assembly and our unelected prime minister?

The EU as it is now is not setup to put people and their communities first, or improve the lives of the working classes of Britain. This is why I voted leave, even if it meant we suffered in the short term.

Again, that is a matter for national governments. The EU only has very limited powers and budget to address inequality in regions.

I think we are about to witness a great unraveling of the EU, and British society as we come to terms with the new world. Interesting times we live in.

I hope you are wrong. If the EU goes, then it's going to be a disaster for Europe as a whole.

[BRUTE]

ironically, the Netherlands are thinking about leaving the EU. some guy named Geert Wilders is calling for a referendum

[saving-10-years]

@BRUTE This has come up before and the Netherlands is not the only country talking like this. While the UK (or Netherlands) probably would retain the EU citizens it already has in order to secure the future of its own citizens living elsewhere in the EU (amongst other reasons), this is still being worked out and might not be a given. Moving to the Netherlands now (rather than later) sounds like the best plan. So _before_ Article 50 is triggered, which may happen early next year. Then working on becoming a resident sounds good to ensure you can stay in the Netherlands even if it leaves the EU later on. @radamfi may not mind working another 10 years if its in the Netherlands. It need not be full time (depending on his finances).

In case @radamfi is worried that after the UK leaves the EU the cost of healthcare in the Netherlands may come into play, this is not affected. The Netherlands already requires compulsory health insurance payments from its own nationals and anyone else living there other then temporarily. There is more info at http://www.expatbriefing.com/country/ne ... lands.html This does not cover all medical costs but is the basic package. As @Dutchgirl mentions in her Journal its something that everyone pays.

In the Netherlands, everybody is also obligated to get health insurance for roughly 1000 euros premium per year; I would still need to pay that when retired to be covered.

Some UK nationals who reside in EU countries for years rely on the EHIC for cover (this provides for emergency treatment for residents of EEA countries or Switzerland on a temporary stay). The above site notes that ' your EHIC may be invalidated by your country of origin if you are no longer residing there', and 'The Dutch authorities tend to track down uninsured individuals, and fines may be charged for this. Accordingly, expats in the Netherlands should take health insurance seriously.'

[vexed87]

vraxxos, I agree wholeheartedly that many of the repugnant features of the EU are replicated in the UK and appear elsewhere in the world too. My point is that the majority of the country no longer perceive that the EU acts in their best interests. A vote to leave the EU WAS a vote against globalisation.

Give us another 5-10 years of decline and we may well have another rebellion against the status quo, unless either some new radical ideas come to the forefront and save democracy. As the middle class is continually squeezed and more join the ranks of the working classes in a country where the government works only in the interests of the affluent, well... don't expect business as usual in the political theater.

[tonyedgecombe]

ironically, the Netherlands are thinking about leaving the EU. some guy named Geert Wilders is calling for a referendum

According to The Economist this week support for the EU in most of Europe has strengthened since the brexit vote.

[tonyedgecombe]

A vote to leave the EU WAS a vote against globalisation.

It looks to me like it was a vote against immigration as much as anything else.

[vexed87]

Immigration is a feature of globalization if you define it as the free movement of capital, humans being included as a form of capital!

The reality on the ground is that wages are suppressed by immigration, as jobs become fewer in number, or the number of able and willing humans increases relative to the number of jobs, wages fall, its basic supply and demand. Regardless of the vocal minority of racists, xenophobia and bigotry was not the real issue. Oddly, I saw more bigotry on the remain side, my peers tend to be liberal, university educated and middle class and their prejudice against any leave voter horrified and amused me in equal measure.

The interest of the majority now is to enforce more protectionist measures to keep out immigrants. Those that hold power demand policy to shape supply and demand in their favor, as always has been the case.

Brexit is a strong signal that affluent cannot get away with screwing the little guy forever. I'll point out again, I am in favor of freedom of movement, and also against protectionism to a point, however I don't think we can escape the consequences of permitting the former and limiting the latter forever. The problem we have is our planet is overpopulated and limits are being reached on what we can take from the earth and that is increasing competition and driving down living standards. In order to protect our quality of life we must use elements of globalization, free trade and protectionism simultaneously to keep the status quo in the developed world, always at the expense of the developing world and the developed world's working classes. The world economy is the largest zero sum game there is and the working class are not happy with their lot.

Of course, the right thing to do is drop all protectionism, stop consuming so much energy, live more sustainable and within the carrying capacity of the planet and in doing so our living standards to fall somewhere similar to the developing world, but no one wants to entertain that idea! Until that day is forced upon society it's going to get interesting! Hopefully we can avoid an ever increasingly authoritarian state, or repeat of the rise of a National Socialist Workers' Party or something equally terrible.

[tonyedgecombe]

Immigration is a feature of globalization if you define it as the free movement of capital, humans being included as a form of capital!

Well I prefer to think of them as people.

The reality on the ground is that wages are suppressed by immigration, as jobs become fewer in number, or the number of able and willing humans increases relative to the number of jobs, wages fall, its basic supply and demand. Regardless of the vocal minority of racists, xenophobia and bigotry was not the real issue. Oddly, I saw more bigotry on the remain side, my peers tend to be liberal, university educated and middle class and their prejudice against any leave voter horrified and amused me in equal measure.

The people who have suffered most are unskilled, their jobs have mostly been lost to automation and the export of jobs to places like China. Those jobs aren't coming back and had nothing to do with the EU or immigration.

The interest of the majority now is to enforce more protectionist measures to keep out immigrants. Those that hold power demand policy to shape supply and demand in their favor, as always has been the case.

If you look at the people who have been agitating for this change they are all on the right of the political spectrum. They have all seen the EU as being left of their ideology and hence didn't like it. Immigration just happened to be a handy tool to get what they wanted.

Brexit is a strong signal that affluent cannot get away with screwing the little guy forever. I'll point out again, I am in favor of freedom of movement, and also against protectionism to a point, however I don't think we can escape the consequences of permitting the former and limiting the latter forever. The problem we have is our planet is overpopulated and limits are being reached on what we can take from the earth and that is increasing competition and driving down living standards. In order to protect our quality of life we must use elements of globalization, free trade and protectionism simultaneously to keep the status quo in the developed world, always at the expense of the developing world and the developed world's working classes. The world economy is the largest zero sum game there is and the working class are not happy with their lot.

On the contrary I think the little guy has been screwed again, they just don't realise it. I don't expect many of the environmental protections or workers rights that come from the EU are going to be replaced by the Tory government. The reality is we took a step to the right when we voted for brexit.

[Ego]

The world economy is the largest zero sum game there is and the working class are not happy with their lot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game#Economics

Specifically, all trade is by definition positive sum, because when two parties agree to an exchange each party must consider the goods it is receiving to be more valuable than the goods it is delivering. In fact, all economic exchanges must benefit both parties to the point that each party can overcome its transaction costs, or the transaction would simply not take place.

This zero-sum mindset is the cause of many large problems. It encourages reactions that involve cutting off the nose to spite the face. Brexit. We can argue about how it flourishes (spectator sports) and the degree to which it is contagious. It is a mindset that can lead to the ruin of a country.

[radamfi]

ironically, the Netherlands are thinking about leaving the EU. some guy named Geert Wilders is calling for a referendum

What's the point here? Even the Netherlands have stupid people. He's not a nice man and was banned from the UK for a while and ended up being refused entry when he arrived at Heathrow. None of the major parties want a referendum so unless the PVV get 50% of the seats at the election, or can convince some minor parties to join them, there won't be a referendum. In the UK, it was different because it was one of the two major parties that offered it.

Dutch people are international people and like to live and work around Europe. Whilst it is a great country it is also a small country so it is natural that people will want to spread their wings for a while at least. So, even if it gets as far as a referendum, surely they aren't going to vote for something that stops or at least makes it hard for them. And in the very unlikely event of a "nexit", it would surely be a soft one.

I especially find it unlikely that the Netherlands will end economic union and free movement with Belgium and Luxembourg, given that there is the long standing Benelux grouping.

We learned today there will be no hard border between the UK and Ireland, hopefully making a hard Brexit even more unlikely.

[radamfi]

Brexit is a strong signal that affluent cannot get away with screwing the little guy forever. I'll point out again, I am in favor of freedom of movement, and also against protectionism to a point, however I don't think we can escape the consequences of permitting the former and limiting the latter forever. The problem we have is our planet is overpopulated and limits are being reached on what we can take from the earth and that is increasing competition and driving down living standards. In order to protect our quality of life we must use elements of globalization, free trade and protectionism simultaneously to keep the status quo in the developed world, always at the expense of the developing world and the developed world's working classes. The world economy is the largest zero sum game there is and the working class are not happy with their lot.

Of course, the right thing to do is drop all protectionism, stop consuming so much energy, live more sustainable and within the carrying capacity of the planet and in doing so our living standards to fall somewhere similar to the developing world, but no one wants to entertain that idea! Until that day is forced upon society it's going to get interesting! Hopefully we can avoid an ever increasingly authoritarian state, or repeat of the rise of a National Socialist Workers' Party or something equally terrible.

I can certainly agree with a lot of that. Clearly there are too many people in the world and obviously having children is bad for the environment. I certainly don't intend to have any children and disagree with childbirth for ethical reasons as well as environmental ones. Luckily the world population growth is slowing as the developing world have now mostly shrunk their families and of course most of the developed world has a below replacement level. Many western countries would be seeing population falls if it wasn't for immigration. Importing humans is clearly better for the environment than creating "home grown" people from scratch.

Even where free movement exists, most people don't take advantage of it. Most Polish nationals are still in Poland. People generally want to stay near their friends and family. There are still lots of people living in northern England. They haven't all moved to London. When the UK was one of the poorest countries in the EEC, Brits took advantage. There was even a popular comedy drama made about builders, carpenters etc. from Newcastle moving to West Germany to build new apartment blocks.

[radamfi]

@BRUTE This has come up before and the Netherlands is not the only country talking like this. While the UK (or Netherlands) probably would retain the EU citizens it already has in order to secure the future of its own citizens living elsewhere in the EU (amongst other reasons), this is still being worked out and might not be a given. Moving to the Netherlands now (rather than later) sounds like the best plan. So _before_ Article 50 is triggered, which may happen early next year. Then working on becoming a resident sounds good to ensure you can stay in the Netherlands even if it leaves the EU later on. @radamfi may not mind working another 10 years if its in the Netherlands. It need not be full time (depending on his finances).

In case @radamfi is worried that after the UK leaves the EU the cost of healthcare in the Netherlands may come into play, this is not affected. The Netherlands already requires compulsory health insurance payments from its own nationals and anyone else living there other then temporarily. There is more info at http://www.expatbriefing.com/country/ne ... lands.html This does not cover all medical costs but is the basic package. As @Dutchgirl mentions in her Journal its something that everyone pays.

In the Netherlands, everybody is also obligated to get health insurance for roughly 1000 euros premium per year; I would still need to pay that when retired to be covered.

Some UK nationals who reside in EU countries for years rely on the EHIC for cover (this provides for emergency treatment for residents of EEA countries or Switzerland on a temporary stay). The above site notes that ' your EHIC may be invalidated by your country of origin if you are no longer residing there', and 'The Dutch authorities tend to track down uninsured individuals, and fines may be charged for this. Accordingly, expats in the Netherlands should take health insurance seriously.'

I'm not worried about taking out health insurance and indeed I've discussed this with Dutchgirl before. I don't need to work in the UK or NL to have enough money to survive, but it would certainly be more expensive to live in NL due to the wealth tax and need for health insurance. It would be worth it though. The main issue, as I have to keep insisting, is simply that leaving now is impractical. If I knew what I know now, I would have studied at a Dutch university at age 18, learned Dutch then and stayed on after graduating.

[vexed87]

@Ego, I stand corrected, I guess I didn't understand zero-sum games as much as I thought I did.

@tony, environmental protections and workers rights are important issues... but the EU was not in the business of protecting the environment, it just sanctions certain kinds of destruction while meekly discouraging others, real protection is down to consumer choice, London in particular has been repeatedly breaching nitrogen dioxide pollution limits for some time now and little has actually happened in response.

As for protecting workers rights, as soon as we get a Labour party that is electable we can implement even better legislation than the EU imposed, providing the people of the country care enough for it. That is assuming that the legislation from EU directives and instructions are rolled back, there's no guarantees.

Leaving the EU was not supposed to be a silver bullet, but a step in the right direction as far as the working class and their interests are concerned. Of course, there's much more work to be done, hence why I suggested this is only the start of great change in the country.

[radamfi]

As for protecting workers rights, as soon as we get a Labour party that is electable we can implement even better legislation than the EU imposed, providing the people of the country care enough for it. That is assuming that the legislation from EU directives and instructions are rolled back, there's no guarantees.

Why do you have such faith in the Labour party? We had a Labour government under Tony Blair that was electorally untouchable for a long time. We got the minimum wage and tax credits, but was inequality reduced? In the previous years of opposition they promised to re-regulate local buses but when they got in, nothing happened. Only now, with a right-wing Tory government, are we getting progress on bus re-regulation.

The EU tries to reduce the disparities between the poorer and richer parts of Europe through its regional policy, however inequality within a country is down to the member state itself. European countries vary dramatically in their levels of inequality. If you want a more egalitarian society, then you will find it in northern Europe, with its high tax levels and generous welfare systems.

[BRUTE]

If you want a more egalitarian society, then you will find it in northern Europe, with its high tax levels and generous welfare systems.

radamfi means with its tiny countries almost empty of humans and super homogeneous populations. every policy works for a tiny group of similar humans. the LA metro area has more humans living in it than Sweden, and more than Norway and Denmark combined.