Brexit

[Dragline]

As for the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit, I honestly don't understand all the fuss.

I don't think this particular fuss actually has that much to do with Brexit, which appears to be more of a trigger than a cause.

[BRUTE]

As I said earlier, leaving has a direct and clear negative impact. Whereas the downsides of staying are far less easy to quantify.

but as brute already mentioned, just because one decision has a clear and negative impact doesn't mean the other decision is better - just that the impact might be more indirect and less clear.

this reminds brute a lot of what some humans say about divorce. "but divorce is terrible!". sure, but no good marriage ever ended in a divorce. at the point when humans consider divorce, staying married is likely the worse option.

[Chad]

As for the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit, I honestly don't understand all the fuss.

I don't think this particular fuss actually has that much to do with Brexit, which appears to be more of a trigger than a cause.

Agreed. A lot of the reaction to Brexit is the reaction to other things along the similar path of a smaller world. This includes Trump, which is probably why I actually, as an American, had a rather emotional reaction to Brexit. This isn't normal for me, especially for political decisions in another country. Though, it was probably because a Trump presidency actually felt possible after the "Leave" vote. If the UK can leave the EU, and probably not be the UK any more (If I were Scotland I would ditch Britain hard and make Edinburgh the new London.), then president Trump is possible (I will never capitalize it.). It feels like such a step back, not as much as a president Trump, but still a step back.

A president Trump or candidate Trump is just one more chapter in my book, "The Worst Generation."

[saving-10-years]

@Ramafi, @Egg, agree with Egg here. Ramafi seems to have a dream* which is now not available and he is angry about this. This is undeniably sad for him and for others with similar dreams, to travel and settle where they wish in the EU. Ramafi appears to blame others, who voted in line with what they felt that they, their community/family, or country needed, or against what they felt was the bigger threat to the UK long term.

(*Ramafi I am calling it a dream rather than a concrete plan because I am not sure whether you would have or could have acted on this and quit the UK for Netherlands on the terms you suggest given their stay in the EU long term is itself uncertain. You say that you do not have a passport, property in the Netherlands, and have not got a definite timescale for moving, so its sounding more wish/dream than definite plan. It is still be possible to do as you want but undeniably more difficult. I hope your plans work out.

@Chad
Would Scotland leave the UK? The Scottish referendum vote was a relatively close one. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotla ... es/results 55% in favour of staying in the UK. Note that post Brexit many of the Remain voters (c. 4 m?) have urged the government to make the rules of a referendum 60% majority of 75%+ turnout. Would those new rules be applied to In/Out referendums?

It is notable that in the 2014 Scottish referendum the government offered all sorts of last minute incentives to Scotland to stay united and this worked. In the recent EU referendum Cameron negotiated the best deals he could with Europe, but these were seen at home as temporary and far below what he needed. When it looked like a very close call on the Brexit vote (polls similar to Scotland vote in 2014), the EC President Junker made clear that there was nothing else that would be done (no more carrots whatsoever) and wielded his 'out is out' stick. He sounded firm and not at all regretful. This did not help Remain.

For Scotland the economics of leaving the UK are now less favourable than in 2014 and the EU is changing post-Brexit. I don't feel that its a more positive camp to remain with (or join) than I did when I voted last month - in fact less so. Scottish voters may think differently. Of course UK politics are becoming a joke so we have yet to see who will lead our negotiations and also what the mood about these will be in the EU when the dust settles.

The Remain camp had all the best cards. They were least risk and what all main parties urged us to vote. Leave had a number of jokers leading its campaign (I definitely did not vote on the basis of the leadership offered there), there was tragedy (Jo Cox) which spotlighted some of the extreme views on the Leave side and an overall lack of preparedness. Yet 52% voted in favour of Leave. Not all racists, in fact I would say overwhelmingly not, but disaffected and without a sense of power. Yes the UK will get things wrong in the future and may have got things wrong with this vote, but in the future they will be able to make their own decisions on how to get out of the hole. I hope.

Is this what is happening in the US? I don't think so but its a warning that the disaffected can do surprising things and accept strange bedfellows to achieve regime change. Its not a matter of taking Trump seriously so much as taking seriously the fears and aspirations of the people who are looking to him. You have a different range of movement than the UK government had in this (I hope). Had the EU offered an open hand or encouragement near to the vote they may well have swung it for Remain but that is not how the EU works, it can't move quickly and has to be firm to stop others seeing leave negotiations as a viable option.

Dust still settling.

[Dragline]

(If I were Scotland I would ditch Britain hard and make Edinburgh the new London.)

You know, this presents a huge (or maybe "YUGE") opportunity for speculating on real estate in Edinburgh if one knows that market (I do not). For many reasons financial institutions much prefer common-law jurisdictions to civil-law ones, so if you have an independent Scotland in the EU, it becomes a huge magnet for banks and related business and the 1% to locate there, raising everyone's boats there at once.

In an odd way, it reminds me of what happened in Colorado when marijuana was legalized -- every random unused warehouse suddenly became extremely valuable as an indoor growing space and the owners of those properties made bank.

[BRUTE]

A president Trump or candidate Trump is just one more chapter in my book, "The Worst Generation."

which generation would that be?

In terms of demographics, Trump’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Republican. Slightly over half are women. About half are between 45 and 64 years of age, with another 34 percent over 65 years old and less than 2 percent younger than 30. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... rters.html#!)

[Chad]

Is this what is happening in the US?

All the specific issues aren't the same, but the underlying driving force appears to be the same.

You know, this presents a huge (or maybe "YUGE") opportunity for speculating on real estate in Edinburgh if one knows that market (I do not). For many reasons financial institutions much prefer common-law jurisdictions to civil-law ones, so if you have an independent Scotland in the EU, it becomes a huge magnet for banks and related business and the 1% to locate there, raising everyone's boats there at once.

In an odd way, it reminds me of what happened in Colorado when marijuana was legalized -- every random unused warehouse suddenly became extremely valuable as an indoor growing space and the owners of those properties made bank.

Agreed. Local developers in Edinburgh have probably been advocating this scenario. That would be a ton of money rolling into that city over a short period of time.

which generation would that be?

In terms of demographics, Trump’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Republican. Slightly over half are women. About half are between 45 and 64 years of age, with another 34 percent over 65 years old and less than 2 percent younger than 30. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... rters.html#!)

As your numbers very aptly demonstrate...the Boomers.

[Noedig]

I'm coming in at the end of this long thread.

My portfolio is at a record high in Sterling terms today owing to the much stated fact that most FTSE company earnings are from outside UK and hence benefit from the Sterling fall.

And yet, the uncertainties for the future are causing me to rethink my current spell of mini-ER and so I have decided to return to the workforce until clarity and/or a safety buffer emerge - another couple of years, most likely.

I was a Remainer. I have some sympathy for the Brexit rationale. I had little respect for most Brexit campaigners before last week, and precious little now. Gove has disappointed. Very glad to be rid of Boris, however farcical his departure.

I do not see doom and gloom however, I think we will forge a viable path, and if it costs us somewhat, freedom is not all about the money. We will have traded off increased local control against future economic prospects, European citizenship, most likely Scotland, and who knows what else.

[Dragline]

I do not see doom and gloom however, I think we will forge a viable path, and if it costs us somewhat, freedom is not all about the money. We will have traded off increased local control against future economic prospects, European citizenship, most likely Scotland, and who knows what else.

I'm curious to know what the residency requirements are in the UK for declaring "primary residence". In the US its a nebulous concept based on "intent to reside", but the general rule is that your state of residence is where you spend at least half the year. But people regularly cheat so they can declare residency in states with no income taxes, etc.

What I am wondering is whether if you live in England or Wales and want to remain in the EU you could buy/rent an "address" (real or just postal) in Scotland and declare that as your "primary residence" either now or in the future. Or is it just a lot more complicated?

Of course, this is assuming the "newly independent Scotland/member of the EU" scenario, which may never occur.

[vraxxos]

I was a Remainer. I have some sympathy for the Brexit rationale. I had little respect for most Brexit campaigners before last week, and precious little now. Gove has disappointed. Very glad to be rid of Boris, however farcical his departure.

Ditto. I think George Soros summed our situation up best. We already had the best deal possible (in the EU, but not in the Euro), but now we've thrown that away for uncertainty. I tell you what though, a lot of folks who voted Leave are going to be very unhappy that the issues they voted on are being ignored. All those people who voted to get the foreigners out and who are expecting an extra £350M a week going to the NHS have another thing coming.

[vraxxos]

I do not see doom and gloom however, I think we will forge a viable path, and if it costs us somewhat, freedom is not all about the money. We will have traded off increased local control against future economic prospects, European citizenship, most likely Scotland, and who knows what else.

I'm curious to know what the residency requirements are in the UK for declaring "primary residence". In the US its a nebulous concept based on "intent to reside", but the general rule is that your state of residence is where you spend at least half the year. But people regularly cheat so they can declare residency in states with no income taxes, etc.

What I am wondering is whether if you live in England or Wales and want to remain in the EU you could buy/rent an "address" (real or just postal) in Scotland and declare that as your "primary residence" either now or in the future. Or is it just a lot more complicated?

Of course, this is assuming the "newly independent Scotland/member of the EU" scenario, which may never occur.

There are no residency requirements within EU borders. An Italian, Lithuanian or whoever can come over at any point and be resident. Naturally, if it's a primary residence, then they would need an address and National Insurance number (UK equivalent of Social Security number) to pay tax. Anyone can apply for either without any trouble.

[cmonkey]

Just to stir the pot again, JMG on Brexit.

[vexed87]

Thanks for sharing!

JMG's recent post on Brexit nailed it IMO.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.u ... rrors.html

Edit:
Another great post on values vs interests.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.u ... se-of.html

[vexed87]

Ditto. I think George Soros summed our situation up best. We already had the best deal possible (in the EU, but not in the Euro), but now we've thrown that away for uncertainty....

"WE had the best deal..." is precisely the problem with the remain argument, the EU benefits many industries and individuals, no doubt those working class who did benefit also voted remain, however it is clear that the majority do not directly benefit from the political union or single market. Most may indirectly benefit, maybe through low-pay, low-skill jobs served up by the corporations who have the ear of the EU leaders. Its hardly suprising that there has been a backlash. Clearly the downsides of EU membership were too much to bear for the majority of the country.

vraxxos, I strongly encourage you to read JMG's post I linked above for a counter perspective.

The intellectual and current affluent liberal-left suffer from a massive disconnect with the real experiences of the working classes outside London and other economic powerhouse areas. The majority DO NOT benefit from open borders and suppressed wages that follow, failing public institutions and the EUs neoliberal agenda are the icing on the cake. We can argue until the cows come home that these problems are basic failures of past and present government policy and not the fault of the EU. The NHS, council housing capacity and overcrowded schools are at breaking point, and yes, it is percived to be xenophobic to suggest that immigration is the reason for this, however what has the EU parliament done to intervene? Nothing, a vote for the EU was a vote for the status quo and interests of those that benefit from it. I'm hardly surprised how the vote turned out in retrospect.

The EU is a vassal for the plurocrats and coprorate interests, it has been twisted and contorted from it's roots as a economic trading area, this is why many older voters who remember the ECs inception have voted to leave it in its current form. Now the EU is corrupted by the interests of the corporations and those that prosper under fictionalization. The direction of EU policy is controlled by uncountable and unelected presidents with no safe guards from corruption. Don't quote me on this but I read that 95% of EU spending is not audited. The EU as it is now is not setup to put people and their communities first, or improve the lives of the working classes of Britain. This is why I voted leave, even if it meant we suffered in the short term. I believe we will be better equipped to deal with and more adaptable to the challenges of deindustrialisation and degrowth in the peak fossil fuel era. Better to jump the ship before it sinks.

Undoubtedly the EU had some good points, but these were scraps thrown to the masses, much like the failing roman empire declaring that all could eat free bread and attend gladiatorial shows to preserve social order in the failing empire, just in a more in tune with the modern sensibilities of the left-centrist neoliberals. Protecting workers, womens rights, environmental legislation etc can all be achieved outside the EU within our own democracy. This is no reason to remain.

I think we are about to witness a great unraveling of the EU, and British society as we come to terms with the new world. Interesting times we live in.

[radamfi]

Unless those 20 years were in the Netherlands, I disagree that you've done "your bit" for the Dutch. The British, for whom you have done your bit, are presumably more than happy for you to retire here. You just don't want to, but that's your problem not the Netherlands'. If the UK is such a shitty country, 20 years is a long time to take realising it. Arguably you should have moved abroad long since if that's how you feel.

Because I have family and other person things to consider, preventing me from leaving. So the plan was to work extremely hard and save extremely hard so that when the time is right, I can then leave and not have any worries and not need to work. Now the last 20 years have been pointless.

The only choice I appear to have is to go back to work and work super hard for an extra 10 years and continue to save aggressively in the hope that extreme wealth will help in some way. That's not a life and I'd rather be dead than do that. That goes against the whole point of ERE. My last hope is that the negotiations will keep freedom of movement. If that goes wrong, I will seriously look at suicide.

[Tyler9000]

That goes against the whole point of ERE.

To the contrary -- From my perspective, ERE is about building a web of goals in such a way that personal happiness is naturally antifragile to events outside of our control. Be like water, my friend.

I think this would be a good time to take a deep breath, walk away from the internet and news, and focus on the happiness that comes from within.

[BRUTE]

I will seriously look at suicide.

no shame in that

[RealPerson]

If that goes wrong, I will seriously look at suicide.

Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem. I suspect that Brits will not be locked up on their island. Some sort of provision for movement will likely be made. The EU would probably not like to exclude the British talent pool from their economy. Plus, if the terrorism threat keeps escalading in continental Europe, Britain may not look so bad.

[DutchGirl]

@radamfi:

personally, I would be happy to have you living in our country. You'd be spending money here, paying VAT and creating business, and you wouldn't cost us a cent. You wouldn't get a Dutch state pension (well, actually you might get a partial one for the years that you lived here, everyone builds up 2% of a full claim per year starting at age 67, and it would start after age 68 or so - full amount is currently €900/month before income tax), you would pay your own health insurance, too.

I hope there will be a way for you!

Otherwise, you might be able to mostly-live in the Netherlands on repeating tourist visa, but I admit that that would make things a bit more complicated.

PS. Final solution: marry someone Dutch...

[Riggerjack]

Radami,
I freely admit that I didn't follow your links to Dutch immigration policy, having zero interest in going to flatlands.

However, from my limited understanding of the situation, nobody knows what is going to happen with brexit, and no policies have changed. That means Dutch immigration policy never would have allowed your "plan" to work.

Which makes me think you are mourning the loss of a fantasy.