Brexit

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Seppia
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Re: Brexit

Post by Seppia »

I'm Italian living in Italy, and I would bet half my net worth we're not going to exit either the euro or the eu in the next ten years.
They would have to kick us out

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Ego
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ego »

Man.... today I am being a worry wart. Thanks to both of you!

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Seppia
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Re: Brexit

Post by Seppia »

I've seen crazier things happen.
I don't think anybody would have predicted brexit, or that trump would be the republican nominee.
I remember people joking about this 6 months ago (myself included).
So while I would say probabilities of Italy willfully getting out of the euro are very low today, this doesn't mean it will not happen.
I surely hope it doesn't. As bad as European politicians have been recently, they will never be as bad on average as the Italians we have had in the last 20 years

bryan
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Re: Brexit

Post by bryan »

Seppia wrote: I don't think anybody would have predicted brexit, or that trump would be the republican nominee.
I remember people joking about this 6 months ago (myself included).
Err, lots of people predicted brexit (40% chance the day before the vote). Fewer people predicted Trump being the republican nominee.

Trump currently has about a 15% chance to be the President.

Next Scottish Independence Referendum result being for independence is 61%.

Can't find any prediction market with odds on an Italy exit..

BRUTE
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Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

Seppia wrote:As bad as European politicians have been recently, they will never be as bad on average as the Italians we have had in the last 20 years
hey at least he appointed sexy ministers.

Dragline
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dragline »

It will be interesting to see how this actually works:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres ... 2016-10-20

I think that other than industries that benefit from a weaker pound, they are going to find that not being in the EU does not really benefit them or solve any particular problem, but will create a host of other bureaucratic issues. I wonder if it will affect compensation in the Premier League.

ducknalddon
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Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

There is quite a lot of debate at the moment about whether we negotiate a soft or hard brexit. My suspicion is we won't have much choice, we aren't holding a strong hand and the EU knows that.

We were told during the campaign that the EU would negotiate a trade deal because we buy so many German cars, conveniently forgetting all the rest of the EU countries need to agree any deal. Right now the trade deal with Canada is being held up because of a small region in Belgium.

Cornerman
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Re: Brexit

Post by Cornerman »

Exactly, the inability to reach deals quickly is the Achilles heel of the whole EU, and should be fixed. pronto.
The brexit in my opinion was dumb from the start since the UK already has separate and unique deals on a lot of subjects and a unique position in the EU. And the people mostly affected didn't show up to vote.

Whatever you feel about living in a autonomous country which you as the people can really change the outcome, as a EU we are more stable I think.
It just needs a new way in which things can be done.

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »


Chad
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Re: Brexit

Post by Chad »

Not surprising the banks are starting to leave. The downside risk is too great to stay. NYC will benefit some. It will be interesting to see where the rest go in Europe.

BRUTE
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Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

there doesn't seem to be an obvious city - Frankfurt has the airport but is boring, Milan is interesting but not great English, Dublin is English but not as big a financial center (ibrc).. something in the Netherlands was surprisingly high on this list, because they speak good English, they're pretty central, and they also have a good airport.

Ydobon
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ydobon »

@Bryan -

I can't believe we're getting an independence referendum do over - my journal title will be far less amusing...

ducknalddon
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Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

This could have an interesting impact on the UK's tax revenue, the top 5% of earners generate nearly half of the country's tax. My guess is many of those people work in the city.

Noedig
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Re: Brexit

Post by Noedig »

I work in the City of London. Brexit came as an enormous surprise.

Overall it seems frankly quite mad, most votes cast on the basis of misdiagnosed symptoms and erroneous cures, bigotry and wishful thinking.

Yet some voted Brexit for reasons I can respect: lack of democracy in the EU institutions; national sovereignty and control.

Respect but disagree. The EU has a multitude of flaws but frankly as a non-Euro member the UK had it good. Stability and increasing trust relationships. Now gone.

There are few Brexiters in commerce and industry or mainstream politics: the very same people who have now to adapt and make Brexit work, did not want it.

My odds on a prosperous still-intact UK in ten years are about 50%. Upside is very uncertain. Quite unnecessary to have taken that risk.

That said, we are where we are. There are many people of intelligence and willpower in the UK, who will try to exploit such opportunities as exist. I will be ERE'd.

jim234
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Re: Brexit

Post by jim234 »

I hope they never actually Brexit. Killing the right to live and work anywhere in the EU is a huge loss.

bryan
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Re: Brexit

Post by bryan »


jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

One thing I've noticed since Brexit is that the number of ERE books sold on amazon.co.uk vs amazon.de has changed significantly. The respective channel volume used to be about 1:1. Now it's 1:3.

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Seppia
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Re: Brexit

Post by Seppia »

Do you mean you sell more on the German Amazon?
I would have thought brexit would have motivated the brits to live more efficiently, maybe out of fear?

saving-10-years
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Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

@Jacob, has the volume sold on Amazon UK gone down or has the amount of interest in Germany gone up? (This is unusually imprecise reporting on your part). Is the UK (apart from the US) usually the most ERE-book-buying audience? (I don't think that we have reached saturation from what I am seeing). And there are no limits to the applicability of the message!

@Seppia, no bad thing (as we here know) to live more efficiency and perhaps there is some truth in this. The perceived waste of belonging to the EU may have played into voting to leave. It was fascinating that Wales (which has huge gains from EU funding because much of it is economically deprived) voted to leave. Why? One reason might be that the things that they have had funding for (huge road projects in the middle of nowhere, restoration of historic Lido, a lovely Cardiff city centre for the politicians) are not the things that they would have used that money for had they had a say directly. My DH (who is Welsh and knows 'the valleys') points out that building an expensive leisure centre on the site of a former steelworks in an area of high deprivation could be seen as taking the mickey (substitute wording at end there).

More broadly things like the moving of the EU parliament to and from Brussels and Strazburg monthly are seen in the UK as very strange inefficiencies.
Under the current scheme all of Brussels' 751 MEPs along with their papers and official documents are carted between the Belgian capital and Strasbourg, 400 kilometres away, every month.

Tory MEPs have estimated the cost of the gargantuan operation at around £130 million every year, which includes £250,000 for transporting documents, £2.5 million for relocating translators and £1 million for extra catering services.

An official EU report estimated the cost at slightly less - around £93 million a year - but even that figure would mean the scheme has cost £1.7 billion.
Most MEPs apparently want to stop this but are unable to halt it (18 years and counting) because a few countries benefit and refuse to change. Coverage of such inefficiencies in the press doubtless fueled votes to leave: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... -taxpayers Meanwhile the EU Parliament FAQs page makes it clear how impossible it will be to change ...
17. Why does Parliament move between Brussels and Strasbourg?
The EU's national governments unanimously decided in 1992 to fix permanently the seat of the EU institutions. The official seat and venue for most of the plenary sessions is Strasbourg, Parliamentary Committees and Political Group meetings are held in Brussels and administrative staff are based in Luxembourg. Any change to this current system would need to be part of a new treaty and unanimously agreed by all Member States.
There were 12 member states in 1992, there are 27 now and more to come.

ducknalddon
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Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

@Seppia half the voters chose to leave, they think everything is fine (and it pretty much has been so far).

@saving-10-years I don't think EU inefficiency was a big issue, virtually every leaver I've spoken to was worried about immigration. I have some sympathy with this as the figures have been very high in recent years.

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