Bitcoin on the rise

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poleo
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Bitcoin on the rise

Post by poleo » Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:41 am

Bitcoin is going up. The next halving is approaching quickly. Anyone else thinking about this too?

I'm currently holding a modest amount of BTC, and I'm thinking that I might increase it. Though reading bitcoin forums and the like I become skeptical, since they often read more like fan literature than anything balanced. "BITCOIN WILL BE WORTH MILLIONS BUY ALWAYS!"

I've done some reading about different cryptocurrencies, and bitcoin definitely seems to be the most solid one - the others either being some special interest currency or a BTC-ripoff with less good technology. Perhaps this just shows my superficial understanding of the matter?

Anyway, I'd be happy to hear some opinions, and particularly so from people already peddling the coins.

Hankaroundtheworld
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Hankaroundtheworld » Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:03 am

Have a look as well at Ethereum (ETH). In general, it is like gambling, it can be successful, but also turn into blockchain variations with the established Banking sector (and then Bitcoin and others might disappear). I have bitcoin and ether, but purely as "fun" investment, as if you go to the casino.

poleo
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by poleo » Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:37 am

What's your reasoning behind "it is like gambling"?

This piece offers an interesting take on why blockchain will not, in fact, be adopted by the established banking sector. It argues, rather, that blockchain will supplant it.

As always the establishment keeps shouting that everything is fine and that blockchain is just a little thing we'll all forget about soon enough, while all they're really doing is showing that they have no idea about this (either).

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vexed87
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by vexed87 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:59 am

Won't bitcoin eventually become deflationary in nature? I read that there are a finite amount of BTC that can be mined and that time is fast approaching. Also, according to CHS (on recent peak prosperity post) 35% of all BTC in existence has already been permanently lost (forgotten encryption passwords, failed hard-drives etc), as more people start using the currency, BTC will increase it's buying power as the supply will never grow, as nice as this sounds, this usually doesn't suit itself to a stable long term currencies as people hold on to their assets in the hope that tomorrow they can buy more bang for their buck so to speak. There are lots of other reasons why bitcoin might not work, such as the huge amount of data, processing power and energy the p2p network requires to operate, all with cost to the users, (albeit hidden, the costs rise as energy and resources become scarce). Bitcoin can only last as long as the internet, so maybe it might work in the short term, but I put my money on gold in the long run.

I doubt bitcoin will be around for the long haul, however that is not to suggest an alternative cyptocurrency won't become dominant, however I bet it's most likely financial institutions or governments that will want to control them if they do take off, we may well see archaic legislation being implemented for their use to maintain the status quo. We may well end up having all the downsides of our current fiat system, with only some of the benefits, mostly just convenience and security, but a lot less privacy than with cash.

Otherwise, I am very much in favor of bitcoin and its ability to empower individuals to make transcations without the government being able to continously steal away your buying power in favour of manipulating FX markets and goods imports/exports and propping up a failed system... however until I am able to find people willing to exchange goods in BTC, bitcoin is not much use to me, I'd have better luck walking around with a pocket of gold/silver coins! :lol:
Last edited by vexed87 on Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

Hankaroundtheworld
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Hankaroundtheworld » Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:23 am

Thanks @vexed87 I also read about those issues, and I agree, if bitcoin (or any other crypto-currency) becomes too successful, the existing institutions will try to fence it with laws and regulations. Of course, theoretically you cannot kill bitcoin as it has no central authority, but you can downplay its role by pressure (if the 0.1% rulers of the world wants this, they can).
Next to this, Bitcoin is not scalable enough (at the moment) and too energy-consuming and power goes to only a few miners (which is risky). Who knows, the Bitcoin community might allow a more scalable solution (higher transaction rate / sec) and a lower energy-footprint, similar to what Etheruem is trying to do.
Anyway, I give crypto-currency a chance if they can find collaboration with existing powers in this world. Let's see, I might be wrong, it feels like gambling and it is fun to follow.
Last edited by Hankaroundtheworld on Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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vexed87
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by vexed87 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:28 am

I have been tempted to blow some play money in BTC, just to see if I can turn £100 into £1000, but as you say it's really just like gambling, and I always have something else I like to spend my blow money on! :)

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:39 am

bitcoin is deflationary by design, it was likely modeled by its creator after gold. "fast approaching" of the limit of coins to be mined is hard wired to be somewhere around 2030 or so, brute believes. to achieve this with ever-faster mining rigs, the difficulty doubles every X number of coins mined.

it's speculative in nature just as anything new is, but it's survived quite a long time now. especially with the heavy scrutiny it's been under.

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vexed87
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by vexed87 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:06 am

I heard it was much sooner than 2030, but don't quote me on that!

bottlerocks
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bottlerocks » Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:53 pm

Coins will be mined until 2140 due to decaying rewards (21 million total) and mining difficulty is largely based on the amount of hashing power on the network.

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vexed87
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by vexed87 » Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:10 pm

Currently at 15.6 million BTC in circulation, new currency continues to be issued daily and will continue to do so for decades; though over time the rate at which they are issued declines to insignificant levels, I have no idea at what point it becomes a deflationary currency, I'm sure there are some boffins here that do though... however if 35% of all BTC that have been mined to date have been 'lost' or fallen out of circulation...

For those wondering how bitcoins can be lost, see this amusing article... https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... dfill-site

Regarding deflationary properties - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Help:FAQ#Won ... Bitcoin.3F

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:39 pm

bottlerocks wrote:Coins will be mined until 2140 due to decaying rewards (21 million total) and mining difficulty is largely based on the amount of hashing power on the network.
oh wow brute was way off base. that's over 100 years more :D

incidentally, brute doesn't believe deflation is inherently bad, just as inflation isn't inherently good. they both have certain effects, but brute sees no reason why 2% deflation should be more worrying than 2% inflation. unless, of course, humans' entire economy and retirement funds are based on inflation.

Hankaroundtheworld
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Hankaroundtheworld » Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:09 am

Another spike today for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). I am up more than 50% up on those 2 fun-investments, the Casino is gentle to me (for now), but it always end bad in casino's because of getting too greedy :-)

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Dragline
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Dragline » Thu Jun 16, 2016 6:00 am

Ah, but now you are faced with the conundrum of when and if to sell. ;-)

Not a bad conundrum to have, I must say.

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cmonkey
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by cmonkey » Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:13 am

Bitcoin was the one bad investment I have ever made. It wasn't exactly the bitcoin that went bad, it was the institution (Mt Gox). I only put in $200 bucks thankfully. I have no idea what ever became of them or my bitcoin since it was revealed many of the bitcoin disappeared (stolen).

bottlerocks
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bottlerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:27 am

If you're thinking about selling, wait until the halving (July 10th, I think) at least! Supply rate gets cut in half and hopefully demand stays high or skyrockets with increase of media attention and Chinese gambling sentiment.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:41 pm

cmonkey wrote:It wasn't exactly the bitcoin that went bad, it was the institution (Mt Gox). I only put in $200 bucks thankfully. I have no idea what ever became of them or my bitcoin since it was revealed many of the bitcoin disappeared (stolen).
From what I have heard: MtGox is going through bankruptcy and depositors were supposed to make a claim a long time ago. Just recently people have received claim approval/rejections. MtGox found some BTC after going bust, so will be able to pay out appox. 20¢ to the $. Not sure if it will be BTC or USD or JPY denominated. If BTC (didn't do the math for the other options), lucky for some folks who bought some Gox bitcoin on bitcoinbuilder.com for 6¢ to the $ (like me).

I went through something similar with a BTC exchange in 2013, but luckily it was a US-based exchange, was halted due to banking issues or regulatory concerns, and my account was holding USD so I got my funds back with only minimal hassle (time value wasted).

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stayhigh
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by stayhigh » Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:54 pm

I spent few hundreds on bitcoins back in 2011 or so. I still got them. Shame I didn't spent few thousands, I'd be retired now :)

trfie
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by trfie » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:54 pm

vexed87 wrote:Won't bitcoin eventually become deflationary in nature?
This is the critical flaw in bitcoin and why I don't think it will work in the long run. A currency cannot be used in everyday life it is it deflationary because it will encourage hoarding. In order for it to still be used, its usefulness would have to be higher to compensate for this deficiency, which is too big a hurdle to overcome.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:04 pm

@trfie: brute disagrees. first, deflation can take a long time. if bitcoin loses 2% of its value per annum, like current western currencies experience inflation, the dreaded hoarding effect will make very little impact. the ability to make transactions and partake in a money economy and make cheap international transfers almost very quickly vastly outweighs the 2% hoarding factor for many people. marginal difference, yes. huge problem, no.

NPV
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by NPV » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:24 pm

trfie wrote:
vexed87 wrote:Won't bitcoin eventually become deflationary in nature?
This is the critical flaw in bitcoin and why I don't think it will work in the long run. A currency cannot be used in everyday life it is it deflationary because it will encourage hoarding. In order for it to still be used, its usefulness would have to be higher to compensate for this deficiency, which is too big a hurdle to overcome.
Why would it be a bad thing? Gold has the same deflationary properties and there is no shortage of those willing to sell you gold for USD or another currency - at the right price. I think this particular attribute - that it cannot be inflated away by wish of a government or a central bank - is actually a key strength of Bitcoin rather than a weakness. It makes it a much more attractive investment - and if gold is any guide, should not hinder liquidity.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:30 pm

NPV wrote:if gold is any guide, should not hinder liquidity.
plus Bitcoin is divisible up to 8 decimal points and can transfer around the globe in seconds. imagine being able to break gold bars down into fine dust any time, to pay whatever amount, and sending it via email.

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vexed87
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by vexed87 » Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:13 am

I agree, if the levels of deflation were low enough, say <=2%, it probably wouldn't encourage any more hoarding than a 2% interest rate available on cash savings. However if the whole point of bitcoin is that there is no government intervention, who is to say deflation won't run away into the double digits periodically, as bitcoin won't prevent the kind of debt fueled asset bubbles and malinvestment that triggers deflationary collapses.

In principle, I wouldn't mind a little deflation every now and then, I would prefer that to the slow but inevitable ravaging of society by the self serving elites and their Keynesian economics. However I doubt we will see much appetite from the general public for adoption of a deflationary cryptocurrency once the reality of deflationary busts kick in. Also, a wholesale transition away from centrally manipulated fiat currency would undoubtedly result in severe austerity as debts can no longer be inflated away through QE, and lets face it, America and Great Britain don't have the industrial prowess to pay their debts back and there's little room for dramatic growth that would help us pay back our debt any time soon. Manufacturing in the UK is in terminal decline and we rely on financialization and borrowing to pay our bills. If we adopted bitcoin, society would have to put up with long term austerity until our debt is gone. This is the sensible approach, however society does not care for sacrifice in the short term, it would much rather kick the can, which is where we are right now.

Hypothetically, if there was a shift to bitcoin, the public would inevitably clamor for government intervention again, the whole reason we are in our current mess is the central banks have a mandate to prevent another 1930s style depression. Its an imperfect system, but the best we have, or so the public believe.

Bitcoin could work, in another world, perhaps after a debt jubilee, but what are the chances? Too many vested interests. In reality, we are more likely to see bitcoin and or other currencies being used in an underground fashion, say Venezuelan style collapse. I cannot see our increasingly authoritarian governments allowing a smooth transition away from fiat. It would likely take some form of collapse for bitcoin to become necessary, but then is the infrastructure going to be in place to support it? There's a reason why dollars are currently preferred to bitcoin in Venezuela at the moment, it's much simpler and doesn't require vast infrastructure to support it.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:02 pm

debt fueled asset bubbles and malinvestment are a problem of deflation? brute would blame inflation for that.

it's true that the meta-currency issues are unlikely to be solved by bitcoin, and make bitcoin unlikely to be adopted as a state/majority currency. but that doesn't make bitcoin useless. credit cards and and rebate coupons also play valuable roles to some humans, despite not being legal tender.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:16 pm

vexed87 wrote:Hypothetically, if there was a shift to bitcoin, the public would inevitably clamor for government intervention again.
So far, Bitcoin has proven to be resilient against "democratic" attacks already, if you believe the majority would have liked bigger blocks or other changes. The "techno-tyrant" developers and capitalist miners/economic players are the ones in control. It is a capital-based system through and through. A government is certainly a major actor that could kill Bitcoin dead if they wanted to (but the rub is it is alleged to cost more and more money the more popular it becomes and from a narrow game theory perspective the actor would be better served joining the party (dubious if you are talking about USG), unless you attack the human element which I suspect some folks are very good at).
vexed87 wrote:Bitcoin could work, in another world, perhaps after a debt jubilee, but what are the chances?
A small (big) enough chance that it "works" such that it makes sense to hold some bitcoins for the time being, of course. What are the chances that some hedge funds, commodity funds, banks etc begin holding some bitcoin? Lots of scenarios to think about. Already there is GBTC which is 100% marked up from BTC just because it is the (only) easy way to hold Bitcoin (and in tax-advantaged accounts). The risk/reward was at least obvious in early 2013.

The more likely outcome is a currently-not-available Bitcoin competitor will win.
I suspect is could be from the banking (see MUFG/BTMU or other banks experimenting) sector.
Or it could be from a government which institutes a democratic (or not), based on one human on vote, minting process. Or if they just mandate it's use (taxes, government services) and that's good enough for software folks to make it a de facto digital cash in there systems/services.
Or it could be from any company willing to back (floor exchange value) the coins by something more tangible (Apple products, WoW gold, etc).
Or it could be from the Internet, like Bitcoin, but much "better" (faster, easier, more capable to integrate into other systems, anonymous, minting is democratic (identity) instead of capitalistic, interesting monetary policies like a basic income).

As you can see, there is a lot of room for competition. It's just network effects that could keep Bitcoin at the top, if people ever build on top of it and integrate it into other systems (21.co is the biggest company involved in this effort, I think).
BRUTE wrote:bitcoin unlikely to be adopted as a state/majority currency.
Which brings us to one interesting conspiracy still viable: why hasn't Satoshi spent any of his billions? Maybe it is a government sponsored experiment and those funds are locked away?!?

But what stops some backwater state from buying some or setting up mining operations and then announcing it's the new currency? (probably being invaded or embargoed, depending on geopolitics)

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chenda
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by chenda » Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:08 pm

vexed87 wrote:In principle, I wouldn't mind a little deflation every now and then, I would prefer that to the slow but inevitable ravaging of society by the self serving elites and their Keynesian economics.
Elites have rejected Keynesian economics.

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