Portfolio Charts

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Tyler9000
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Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:30 pm

I know that advertising a personal project is generally bad form on a message board, but hopefully I've contributed enough here to earn an exception. I just accomplished something I'm proud of and wanted to share. And perhaps some here will find it helpful.

With all of my extra time, I've spent a lot of time lately playing with spreadsheets as a portfolio visualization tool. It started simply enough as a way to study the Permanent Portfolio when other portfolio websites did not have the right data, but eventually grew into a more comprehensive tool that could model a wide variety of Lazy Portfolios on demand. As I shared results among my investment comrades, I got some nice feedback and developed a few somewhat unique charts that look at investment returns in different ways. Eventually I realized it would be fun to share. So I built a website.

PortfolioCharts.com

Check it out. Or not! It's just a pet project and I'm not trying to turn it into a money making venture or anything, so I promise not to shill. But feel free to give it a spin.

Now I can finally check retirement accomplishment #1 off the list. :D
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

A Life of FI
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by A Life of FI » Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:14 am

I like it - Easy to understand visual presentation of the behavior of the main portfolio types - I haven't seen it presented this elegantly anywhere else.

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Dragline
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Dragline » Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:08 am

Very nice. Especially for what you are charging. ;-)

Here are some others you might want to include if you get ambitious:

http://mebfaber.com/2013/07/31/asset-al ... ategies-2/

almostthere
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by almostthere » Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:32 am

Very nicely done. If you can do that with excel, you really should start playing with R.

Jack Jones
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Jack Jones » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:16 pm

Minor nitpick:

No need to have the image on the front page link to itself.

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:38 pm

Thanks all! I appreciate the feedback.

@Dragline -- Thanks for the portfolio tips. I'll put them in the queue.

@Jack Jones -- Good call. The theme I'm using automatically creates links as the default, but I think I fixed it for that one.

@almostthere -- Just when I feel like I can stop thinking about it for a while, here you go pointing me towards a new tool to learn. :) Working with Excel and Wordpress is simple enough, but learning a new language would definitely push my boundaries. I'll look into it.

oldbeyond
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by oldbeyond » Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:08 pm

And now more lazy portfolios are up it appears! Great work, I really like the perspective behind it. There is so much more than long-term CAGR to an investment. Also interesting how very different asset allocations all average a 5-6 % real return in the long run.

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:18 am

Thanks oldbeyond. I plan to keep populating new lazy portfolios over time, so you might want to check back periodically. If anyone has a suggestion or special request, feel free to ask. And don't forget to try the calculators for yourself!

Hankaroundtheworld
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Hankaroundtheworld » Thu Jul 23, 2015 11:18 am

Hi, very nicely done! Just for my understanding, the CAGR is the result *without* dividend re-invested, right? Otherwise for US stockmarket, it would result in 7-8% over a long period, if I remember right

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:18 pm

The numbers do include reinvested dividends. They also account for inflation every individual year.

The point of the Funnel chart is to show how looking at a single CAGR number for the "long term" can sometimes be deceptive depending on the period you look at.

Image

For more info, the behavior I outlined in this post would also apply to total stock market charts. http://portfoliocharts.com/2015/07/17/s ... fat-tails/

The median real return for stocks over any 30 year period since 1972 is 7%. It has been as high as 9% and as low as 5%. But the longer the period you look at, the lower it gets. In the 43 years since 1972 the return is 6%. The larger point is that one single number rarely tells the whole story.

KevinW
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by KevinW » Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:27 pm

Kudos!

jacob
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by jacob » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:31 pm

Tyler9000 wrote: The point of the Funnel chart is to show how looking at a single CAGR number for the "long term" can sometimes be deceptive depending on the period you look at.
This also illustrates that the long-term return is independent of the initial strategy and closer to economic growth rate + leverage.---A point I made in the ERE book if I might add :geek:

Another observation is that the "holy wars" are often influenced by anecdotal/autobiographical/fashionable observations of 5-30 year periods. This probably explains 90%+ of all opinionated commentary of the supposed "best" strategy.

pooablo
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by pooablo » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:26 pm

Those charts look familiar! I saw something like that on the Crawling Road blog. Did you share your charts there too?

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:21 pm

pooablo wrote:Those charts look familiar! I saw something like that on the Crawling Road blog. Did you share your charts there too?
Yep! Same Tyler. :D

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:31 pm

jacob wrote: This also illustrates that the long-term return is independent of the initial strategy and closer to economic growth rate + leverage.---A point I made in the ERE book if I might add :geek:
I'm not convinced it's totally independent, but I agree that in the investment world a lot of energy is spent constantly reshuffling the deck chairs for minimum wind resistance rather than watching the sail.
jacob wrote: Another observation is that the "holy wars" are often influenced by anecdotal/autobiographical/fashionable observations of 5-30 year periods.
I've definitely found this to be true.

almostthere
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by almostthere » Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:13 pm

Congratulations on the write up with the "Reformed Broker"!
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/08/04 ... n-the-web/

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Sun Aug 09, 2015 4:51 pm

Thanks! The review was completely unsolicited and blew me away. I talked to Josh Brown briefly, and he was extremely friendly and insightful. I can't say enough good things about the whole experience.

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jennypenny
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by jennypenny » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:33 pm

The website looks great. DH played around with the calculator for a while. He liked it a lot more than firecalc.

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jennypenny
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by jennypenny » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:23 pm

I like the rewrite. And I really like "commentary" instead of "blog."

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:52 pm

Thanks, JP. It's always good to have another set of eyes on things. Anything I can do to make things simpler and easier to understand without watering things down is a great idea. I believe there's far too little of that kind of thing in finance.

I sorta like "commentary" as well. It carries more meaning. "Blog" is a really weird word when you think about it.

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Chad
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Chad » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:48 am

Agreed with JP. "Commentary" sounds more professional than "blog". The site is turning out really well. You getting any traffic yet?

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Tyler9000
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:43 am

Traffic has cooled off substantially since the initial Reformed Broker wave, but I appear to have picked up some regular visitors in the process. It's not to the point of thinking about monetizing the traffic or anything, but enough that I'm starting to see a few random referrals from message boards and social media. While the early publicity was really cool, organic interest from regular people who find it personally useful was always my main hope. So far so good.

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Dragline
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Dragline » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:09 pm

If you want to continue to keep the traffic coming, I would add a regular feature such as a "portfolio of the month", that you could then compare with the regular stable.

Also, is there a way you could have a user-defined category that is just a fixed rate of some kind? That would cover annuities or other things people might want to model and tinker with.

jacob
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by jacob » Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:21 pm

I suggest making http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/ the actual homepage.

There's not much to see on the landing page. People need to take action. People don't like to take action.

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BlueNote
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Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by BlueNote » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:53 pm

Cool idea! As a fellow excel wonk I salute you!

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