SWR milestone record

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steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Tue Mar 17, 2015 5:24 am

2015 - 21.5%

Hopefully I remember to update this as we get close to 4%.

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Egg
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Egg » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:20 pm

~23.5%

Not sure that really counts as an "SWR", mind, as I'm pretty sure only the extremely foolish would feel confident getting the ~25% returns required to sustain that one...!

jacob
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by jacob » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:35 am

2015 -- 1%

IlliniDave
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:27 pm

jacob wrote:2015 -- 1%
Impressive! I've yet to crack 4%, 4.3%-4.4% the last couple months. Probably a year and a half out before I hit 3% consistently.

Scrubby
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Scrubby » Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:59 pm

When you give percentages for SWR, do you mean the chance that the portfolio with fail after a certain number of years, or the percentage of the portfolio that you spend in a given year? If it's the later, wouldn't it be more correct to call it just WR?

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Gilberto de Piento
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Sat Oct 24, 2015 1:36 pm

When you give percentages for SWR, do you mean the chance that the portfolio with fail after a certain number of years, or the percentage of the portfolio that you spend in a given year?
The percentage of the portfolio that you spend in a given year.

The formula is:
Average monthly expenses * 12 / Financial independence assets = SWR
If it's the later, wouldn't it be more correct to call it just WR?
Yes, but everyone knows what you mean if you say SWR.

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C40
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by C40 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:07 pm

Jacob, you're going to confuse the hell out of people if they eventually learn that the ERE guy is a millionaire.

chicago81
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by chicago81 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:10 pm

More-so if they accuse you of earning that million dollars by selling your book ;)

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cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey » Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:12 am

Or going back to work :lol: Congrats, that's a great achievement.

penny
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by penny » Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:59 pm

Egg wrote:~23.5%

Not sure that really counts as an "SWR", mind, as I'm pretty sure only the extremely foolish would feel confident getting the ~25% returns required to sustain that one...!
As someone new to ERE, I am finding this tricky. Perhaps I've misunderstood, but isn't SWR the percentage you can safely draw down each year without jeopardising financial independence?

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Egg
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Egg » Thu Oct 29, 2015 2:34 pm

penny wrote:As someone new to ERE, I am finding this tricky. Perhaps I've misunderstood, but isn't SWR the percentage you can safely draw down each year without jeopardising financial independence?
In theory. But then a totally safe withdrawal rate (other than a histoical one) is a myth anyway, so although 4% is more realistic than 23.5% for sustainability, neither are necessarily SWRs as such. To allow numbers like mine, I guess you'd have to extend the definitition to something along the lines of "the returns you'd need to cover your withdrawals".

P.S. Update: My "SWR" is now 12%

penny
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by penny » Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:57 pm

Thanks for your reply egg. How do you arrive at 23.5% and 12%? Are these figures actual draw down or returns made in a given year? Like I said, this is new to me so any insight is appreciated.

steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Thu Oct 29, 2015 8:14 pm

penny wrote:Thanks for your reply egg. How do you arrive at 23.5% and 12%? Are these figures actual draw down or returns made in a given year? Like I said, this is new to me so any insight is appreciated.
Expenses/Assets * 100.

I personally look at my expenses over the course of a year. One area where I think you could trick yourself is to underestimate your expenses. So you could be really cheap for a week and use your current weeks expenses * 52 / total assets and give yourself a false picture. You could also not take into account future expenses such as health care.

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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by penny » Fri Oct 30, 2015 5:17 am

steveo73 wrote:
penny wrote:Thanks for your reply egg. How do you arrive at 23.5% and 12%? Are these figures actual draw down or returns made in a given year? Like I said, this is new to me so any insight is appreciated.
Expenses/Assets * 100.

I personally look at my expenses over the course of a year. One area where I think you could trick yourself is to underestimate your expenses. So you could be really cheap for a week and use your current weeks expenses * 52 / total assets and give yourself a false picture. You could also not take into account future expenses such as health care.
Thanks steveo73

Hankaroundtheworld
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Hankaroundtheworld » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:27 am

Depending on how I estimate living costs per year, the new 2015 figures (this is for a couple):
* Basic living cost (good life, but not much travel budget) => SWR = 1.4%
* Very comfortable (good life, but more travel budget or more health coverage when older ) => SWR = 2.4%
* Easy living (enough buffer to allow flexible way of living) => SWR = 4.2%

steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Tue Dec 08, 2015 5:30 pm

I'm below 15% now. That feels significant to me. I think the next point will be 10% or less.

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jennypenny
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by jennypenny » Tue Dec 08, 2015 6:56 pm

@steveo73--Is that based on your current spending level, or a post-kid retirement budget? I'm just curious how people are calculating their number.

steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Wed Dec 09, 2015 5:09 am

jennypenny wrote:@steveo73--Is that based on your current spending level, or a post-kid retirement budget? I'm just curious how people are calculating their number.
Current spending level. I assume my spending could drop in retirement but its not that clear cut because I will still be supporting kids.

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by DutchGirl » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:15 pm

@Henk: very, very nice. Now the market goes up and down, so your exact numbers will change a bit from time to time, but it looks like you've got this one covered :-)

@steveo, looking back to March it was 21.5%, so yes, that's an impressive change. Nice, keep it up!

Mustermann
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Mustermann » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:09 am

2014 -- 9%
2015 -- 7%

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:09 am

Start of Year Portfolio Expenses SWR
2011 SWR $20,000.00 $24,000.00 120.00%
2012 SWR $30,000.00 $24,000.00 80.00%
2013 SWR $40,000.00 $24,000.00 60.00%
2014 SWR $60,000.00 $22,000.00 36.67%
2015 SWR $80,000.00 $18,800.00 23.50%
2016 SWR $141,000.00 $20,500.00 14.54%
2017 SWR $200,000.00 $20,500.00 10.25% - Predicted

FRx
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by FRx » Sat Mar 05, 2016 9:04 pm

2013 - 8%

2014 - 4%

2015 - 3%

JL13
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by JL13 » Sat Mar 05, 2016 11:54 pm

2011: infinite
2012: 76%
2013: 28%
2014: 12%
2015: 8.4%* **

*now calculated to exclude market fluctuations using formula book value * 11% * PE ratio of 15 (Alternate formula, market value *(average PE10/current PE10)

**anticipated to drop to 4% - 6% this year due to 'lifestyle arbitrage' :)

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by DutchGirl » Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:38 am

Nice, JL, you're getting close. And that within just a few years.

And to me it seems like FRx, you're there - also pretty amazing to get from 4% to 3% in one year, either a lot of growth of your assets, or a reduction of expenses, or a bit of both. Anyway: impressive.

OTCW
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by OTCW » Sun Mar 06, 2016 10:40 am

Currently 2.53%. I pay full price for health insurance right now, so that number would go down if I quit my part time job and my income went down to an amount where I could get a subsidy.

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