SWR milestone record

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workathome
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby workathome » Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:09 am

A thought: with a sub 1% SWR you'd need to get used to the sensation of watching your portfolio fluctuate by a whole years expenses frequently.

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby DutchGirl » Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:10 am

@Gilberto: yup, that's it. Now actually SWR stands for SAFE withdrawal rate, and of course a withdrawal rate of 30% is nowhere near "safe" (if you define "safe" as meaning that with this withdrawal rate you can live on your assets forever). So I would call it the WR, until it's below 4%, then I would start calling it the SWR :-)

and @workathome: yeah, agreed. The stock market is pretty volatile, you would indeed see years of expenses evaporate (and then of course also come back...).

chicago81
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby chicago81 » Mon Jun 16, 2014 8:30 am

Doing the calculation (and subtracting a 20% estimated tax liability from tax deferred retirement accounts), my SWR at my current level of spending is about 4.57%. However, my SWR based on what I would like my retirement spending level to be, is 6.86%. I think I've got a few more years of work ahead of me, although it is a great feeling knowing how close I am to the crossover point.

leeholsen
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby leeholsen » Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:10 pm

Gilberto de Piento wrote:Is there a formula for this? Here's what I came up with (I don't have a full year of expenses yet so I have to extrapolate average monthly expenses):
Average monthly expenses * 12 / FI Assets = SWR

My results:
$2322.89 * 12 / $90,768.30 = 30.7%


i use this: http://www.mycalculators.com/ca/retcalc2m.html or this: http://www.dinkytown.com/java/Investmen ... ution.html

i'm not sure how people are putting up SWR rates over 6. you pretty much are never retiring if your SWR is greater than 6 and you're expecting to live longer than another 10 years.

slsdly
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby slsdly » Mon Jun 16, 2014 3:16 pm

leeholsen wrote:i'm not sure how people are putting up SWR rates over 6. you pretty much are never retiring if your SWR is greater than 6 and you're expecting to live longer than another 10 years.


SWR probably isn't the right word. I would say some (myself included) posted what percent our present expenses are of our total assets, while still in the accumulation phase, rather than what rate we realistically expect to live off :).

arebelspy
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby arebelspy » Tue Jun 17, 2014 8:05 pm

slsdly wrote:
leeholsen wrote:i'm not sure how people are putting up SWR rates over 6. you pretty much are never retiring if your SWR is greater than 6 and you're expecting to live longer than another 10 years.


SWR probably isn't the right word. I would say some (myself included) posted what percent our present expenses are of our total assets, while still in the accumulation phase, rather than what rate we realistically expect to live off :).


+1.

It's just a Withdrawal Rate (WR), rather than a SWR at that point. It's more of an Unsafe Withdrawal Rate (UWR). ;)

But it's fun to look at what your WR would be at a given time, and see it edge closer to becoming a SWR.

pka222
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby pka222 » Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:31 pm

2006-negative wr (student debt)
2008 80% WR
2010 24% WR
2014 8% WR
projected
2018 4% SRW (I cannot wait!)

Edited to reach 4% SWR at 41 not 135 years old
Last edited by pka222 on Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby DutchGirl » Wed Jun 18, 2014 6:22 pm

pka222 wrote:2014 8% WR
projected
2108 4% SRW (I cannot wait!)


I think you're being a bit pessimistic here... You'll be over a hundred years old by that time!

:lol:

George the original one
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby George the original one » Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:22 pm

I thought it was optimism: being able to live and work when over 100 yrs old.

pka222
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby pka222 » Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:53 pm

George the original one wrote:I thought it was optimism: being able to live and work when over 100 yrs old.

Doh- that would be a stretch - just not the kind I am going for

bibacula
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby bibacula » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:52 am

Two year update:

1995: No savings, no debt.

2001: Laid-off from work; decided I was FI with 5% WR.

2012: 2% WR

2014: 1.5% WR

The relentless rise in stock prices reminds me of the late 1990's. Whoo-hoo!

While the numbers have lost significance, it's fun to check every now and then. :)

BPA
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby BPA » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:36 am

3.5% as of this weekend. I am officially declaring myself FI. :D

Thanks to the people here (and at MMM too) for the inspiration.

almostthere
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby almostthere » Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:19 pm

1.4% SWR as of Oct 30, 2014, twelve months into my early retirement. I'd just like to thank Ben Bernanke one more time for QE and all the goods times that followed.
1.75% as December 30, 2015.
Last edited by almostthere on Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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WYOGO
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby WYOGO » Sat Nov 29, 2014 5:26 pm

2000- ooooo money! :mrgreen:
2004- K this house is ridiculously large and expensive and do I really need multiple new vehicles and a gated community?
2008- Can I get a do over, in a way that makes just a bit more sense?
2010- OK time to get serious :| Seriously...
2014- Finally!, Better late than never geez...

100% of all anticipated ERE expenses covered. Since my life will not look like it does now when I ERE, that is the basis for my interpretation of SWR.

This is difficult for me to quantify due to the high degree of adaptation and flexibility with which I live. I am not leveraged in any way. As of today based on what I actually would need I estimate it could fluctuate between 2.5 and 5.5 depending on market performance and what I wanted to do for the year in question.

Note: This also assumes I will never make or recieve another dime. Kinda doom and gloomish but there you have it.

wizards
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby wizards » Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:49 pm

Finally crossed the 4 % line - my SWR is now 3.99 % :)

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby DutchGirl » Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:22 am

Congratulations, wizards! The last %s are the hardest, of course!

PDXgal
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Retired for 2015

Postby PDXgal » Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:19 pm

Thought I had posted this but was on my iPad so maybe that was the challenge.

In reconstructing this I'm pretty sure it goes like this:

2008 Bitter and sudden end of relationship: WR 12.5%
2010 Reset button on life now in place and going well: WR 10%
2012: WR 8%
2014: WR 4% - now able to call this a SWR!
1-Dec-2014: Handed in resignation
1-Jan-2015: Will be officially FI and able to devote more time to house projects, learning new skills, community service, friends and family.

Thanks to the community here - especially the dedication of Jacob in setting up this collaboration site - and also to the Mr. Money Mustache community. It has all be inspirational and educational.

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Tyler9000
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby Tyler9000 » Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:17 pm

@PDXgal -- that's fantastic. Congrats!

nacho
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby nacho » Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:25 pm

2011: 51% WR (graduated college, no income but very low spending living overseas)
2012: 43% WR (got a job, moved to high COL city)
2013: 29% WR
2014: 17% WR (surpassed 5 years of living expenses saved)
2015: 11% projected WR (new job, expecting to save of 75% net income)

I'm inspired by many posters' success stories and SWR's of well below 3%...

JL13
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby JL13 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:42 am

2011: infinite
2012: 76%
2013: 28%
2014: 12%

2015: 5% come hell or highwater!

JM89
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby JM89 » Mon Dec 22, 2014 5:50 am

New here, been reading for months. Here are my approximate #'s:

2013: ~31%
2014: ~18%
2015: predicting ~13%

While to go yet. :)

drh177
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby drh177 » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:46 pm

My 10 Year Plan - Year 3.

June 2012: Beginning of working career - net worth ~$0
Year End 2012: 74.5% WR - no true commitment to investment until year end
Year End 2013: 32.3% WR - began saving 50% of pre-tax income, living in metropolitan area with rent about 38% of all spending
Year End 2014: 18.2% WR - continued 50% savings rate plan with rent ~39% of spending

Projections*

Year End 2015: 13.16% WR
Year End 2016: 10.18% WR
Year End 2017: 7.92% WR
Year End 2018: 6.54% WR
Year End 2019: 5.54% WR
Year End 2020: 4.77% WR
Year End 2021: 4.17% WR
Year End 2022: 3.68% SWR

*Based on marginal pay increases of ~2% per year and a conservative return of 5% in investments while saving held constant at 50% of income and spending increases at 2% per year (~CPI). Technically more income could be saved if spending was held constant, but this approach should be conservative.

Moving to out of the metropolitan area would likely suit me better and also allow me to decrease my spending significantly, giving me an accelerated timeline to my target of < 4% SWR.

Note: Using total yearly expenses (actuals for 2012, 2013 and 2014) divided by investment value (not including 3 months spending emergency fund).

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cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby cmonkey » Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:46 am

Here are the calcs I've gotten down and feel pretty comfortable with.

Looking for a withdrawal of 15K per year so

SWR Year Age

56.04% 2015 29
21.15% 2016 30
12.46% 2017 31
8.53% 2018 32
6.31% 2019 33
4.88% 2020 34
3.90% 2021 35 (FIRE!)



These calcs work for ROI of anywhere from 5%-10% over the next 5-6 years.

Beyond that, it starts decreasing toward 1% after a decade, eventually hitting .59% when I hit "retirement" age (hehe).

Extending work by just 5 years gives me this. Pretty nice!

SWR Year Age

56.04% 2015 29
21.15% 2016 30
12.46% 2017 31
8.53% 2018 32
6.31% 2019 33
4.88% 2020 34
3.90% 2021 35
3.19% 2022 36
2.65% 2023 37
2.23% 2024 38
1.89% 2025 39
1.62% 2026 40

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bryan
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby bryan » Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:46 pm

2011: 85%
2012: 29%
2013: 22%
2014: 18%
projected 2015: <6%

Though I'm currently living in a van; awesome and sustainable except for bringing another human or two under the roof.

Vikb
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Re: SWR milestone record

Postby Vikb » Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:20 am

2014 - 11.5%
2015 - 7.5%
2016 - hopefully 4-5% & plan to switch to part-time work


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