SWR milestone record

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2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:40 am

OTCW wrote:Currently 2.53%. I pay full price for health insurance right now, so that number would go down if I quit my part time job and my income went down to an amount where I could get a subsidy.
Wow, with a SWR that low I have to ask. Why still work?

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Olaz
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Olaz » Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:06 pm

2016 - 28%, I'd be broke in just a few years :D

OTCW
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by OTCW » Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:31 am

2Birds1Stone wrote:
OTCW wrote:Currently 2.53%. I pay full price for health insurance right now, so that number would go down if I quit my part time job and my income went down to an amount where I could get a subsidy.
Wow, with a SWR that low I have to ask. Why still work?
I enjoy it (mental challenges, social interaction, being productive), and I get to more or less set my own hours depending on deadlines, which usually aren't that tight, but sometimes can be. I quit my full time job about a year and a half ago, and was approached to do this part time shortly thereafter. Same field, but different work environment.

Small office, so there are only a few people I see all the time, but peripheral interactions with lots of other people (vendors, sub- consultants, clients, contractors, sales reps, etc). My full time was just about the opposite, and I have found that I really am better suited for my part time job environment. The full time job was a grind, but the part time, so far, has not been.

Plus, I enjoy investing, so having new money come in is good. Right now, I am concentrating on diversifying into new areas, and simplifying my existing investments.

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bryan
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by bryan » Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:38 pm

bryan wrote: 2011: 85%
2012: 29%
2013: 22%
2014: 18%

projected 2015: <6%

Though I'm currently living in a van; awesome and sustainable except for bringing another human or two under the roof.
my projection for 2015 had some needless voodoo and it ended up having an error in it.. so it was a bit off, despite my spending/income being pretty predictable:

2015: 9%
projected 2016: <6%

slightly disappointing that my projection is the same as last year's! For some back-of-the-napkin fun:
projected Oct 2017: 5%
projected Jan 2019: 4%
projected Feb 2021: 3%

Healthcare (insurance) future cost is now becoming a large factor to consider. Though, I'm generally keeping some of my numbers and assumptions very rough since I'm pretty young and still have my whole future to think about; maybe in two or three years I'll re-visit my future spending assumptions.

The probability of a significant factor change in the next 4 years is 99.999% (no more vandwelling? marriage? new job? move out of super high savings land? begin a semi-retirement? etc).

Toska2
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Toska2 » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:05 pm

4.5%* and doing a trial run of retirement. Last day was today. 8-)

*Not wise on a historic peak but I still have time if I get cold feet. I'm also car dwelling and later 2nd world traveling. Kinda unstable not calculating rent but I anticipate more enjoyable jobs.

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Dragline
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Dragline » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:30 pm

Toska2 wrote:4.5%* and doing a trial run of retirement. Last day was today. 8-)
Congrats!

steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:37 pm

Well done Toska2.

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El Duderino
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by El Duderino » Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:14 am

Nice Toska! Happy first week off the treadmill.

I'm averaging something over 6% for the past year. Not great. Had a 4.1% month in January and it was lousy, actually. If I were to plot my happiness versus spending on a graph, it would look like a flattened bell curve.

Lucky C
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Lucky C » Wed May 11, 2016 5:30 pm

2.9% for just myself based on my current spending. But I will be providing for my whole family, so more like 6-7% to cover all that.

IlliniDave
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by IlliniDave » Sat May 14, 2016 6:07 am

Q1 2016 achieved WR (monthly spending/prior month invested asset total):
- 3.94% strictly speaking
- 3.47% considering anticipated proceeds after downsizing house

Anticipated equivalent WR were I to retire today (annual spending/invested asset balance at start of year):
- Based on planned level of spending which is higher than my average spending back through 2012 and hopefully more than I actually spend during ER.
- 4.47% average until age 70
- 0.51% average age 70 and up
- 2.55% average now to age 85

Although it is maybe not necessary, I would like the "now until age 70" number at or below 3%. The Q1 2016 numbers are more optimistic than what I anticipate for the year (I don't expect to be able to maintain that low of a spending rate).

My calculation is what you might call an instantaneous calculation, where by the Trinity Study method, for example, the calculation is done once using the initial asset balance at the start of retirement. I use the method I do because of the time sequencing of fixed income sources (one of which is a non-COLA-adjusted SPIA) meaning my withdrawal profile is not fixed (relative to inflation).

I don't like to use the acronym SWR, as it is often taken to be "safe withdrawal rate" and I'm not sure anything on the order of my anticipated situation can be considered safe in an absolute sense. I believe in the original context, S -> "systematic".

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Mon May 16, 2016 8:35 pm

I did some soul searching about the amount of money I would honestly need to get by.

Current SWR 12.17% (Current annual budget) 7.96% (Current barebones spending)

slsdly
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by slsdly » Mon May 16, 2016 10:13 pm

2016: 3.7%

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Egg
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Egg » Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:46 pm

~12.5%

chicago81
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by chicago81 » Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:07 pm

I was curious where I stand in this regard, so I put together another spreadsheet, and searched my bank records.

I just hit about 4.75%, based on my current net worth, and my trailing 18 months average expenditures.

I live in a luxurious condo that I could easily down-size from if needed. If I went ERE I would need to pay a lot more for health insurance than I am having to pay for my employer plan (or at least, have to foot the bill for a much higher deductible from a subsidized ACA plan.)

I feel like I'm soooo close. Ooooh soo close. I think if I moved to a lower cost-of-living area, I'd be FI now. But I am involved with someone right now who wants to remain in Chicago. I'm willing to work a couple extra years to make this possible.

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C40
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by C40 » Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:28 pm

Update:
End of year numbers:
2010: 16%
2011: 11%
2012: 8%
2013: 6%
2014: 4%
2015: 6% (Higher because of increased spending on Van and house improvements)


Current:
At rolling 12 month actual spending: 4.4%
At projected forward spending ($15k/yr): 3%

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Forskaren
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Forskaren » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:18 am

I have calculated my SWR based on my expenses for the first 6 months of this year and then assumed that the expenses will be the same the next 6 months.

In my net worth I have included my stocks, but not my car, retirement accounts or that I will get money from government when I retire for real. I think the taxes I will pay on my investments and the money I get in retirement will approximately cancel each other in the long run, so I do not include tax effects in my SWR.

With my current level of expenses my SWR is 3.3 %.

enalynom2
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by enalynom2 » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:48 pm

I'm mostly a lurker, but I started following the blog and forums in September 2010. I hit the 4% mark at the end of June. It took me 5 years and 9 months.

I won't have my mortgage paid off until March 2018. Because of this I track two percentages. The first one ignores the mortgage debt since I'm planning to have it paid off before I FIRE. The second number is more accurate if I pull the plug early. I would pay off my mortgage at that time. I hit the 4% mark in June for both calculations.

The first calculation
(Expenses - Mortgage Principal) / Investable Assets

The second calculation, in parentheses
(Expenses - Mortgage Principal) / (Investable Assets - Mortgage Debt)

2010 - 50.8% (-17,273.8% didn't have enough investable assets to pay off mortgage)
2011 - 23.9% (70.9%)
2012 - 14.3% (23.2%)
2013 - 7.1% (8.9%)
2014 - 6.4% (7.4%)
2015 - 5.4% (5.9%)
June 30 2016 - 3.75% (3.96%)

Because of some policies at work it makes sense to quit in the Spring. My plan has always been to quit in 2018. I'm considering 2017 now. That mostly depends on my job satisfaction between now and then.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:22 am

July 30th 2016 - 11.07%

DutchGirl
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by DutchGirl » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:51 am

Nice, enalynom2! Enjoy your last few months/years at work, knowing that you could already retire if you wanted to.

And 2Birds1Stone, you're slowly getting there :-) . And you're, as you might know, miles ahead of most other people (99% or so?). Hardly anybody has 9 full years of expenses saved up...

frugalcoconut
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by frugalcoconut » Sat Aug 20, 2016 10:34 pm

Currently at around 5.7% SWR ... hope to reach 4% or less by mid-2020 (my target FIRE date) since I'll have to factor in healthcare costs at that point.

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Olaz
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Olaz » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:44 pm

Oct 2016 - 17.5%

I'm super excited for the % to become tiny once I get any "real" job post-school this year!~~~ 8-)

workathome
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by workathome » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:08 am

October 2016 - 2.5%

steveo73
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by steveo73 » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:20 am

I just broke 10%. I'm at 9.875%. That feels good.

To put that into perspective in March 2015 we were at 21.5% & then by December 2015 we were at 15%. It won't keep moving like that though. I have myself achieving FIRE in 2020 with a WR of 5.63 %

CS
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by CS » Sat Oct 29, 2016 4:52 pm

6%

All I can think about is how to drop my spending further.

ShriekingFeralHatred
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:20 pm

blah

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