Investments Trade Log

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cmonkey
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Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

Agreed, it's more speculation than investment right now. They have been diversifying quite a bit in recent years (Simply Mac, Spring Mobile, Think Geek, Kongregate) as well as entering the DLC market. I think there is a bit of weight to their claim of the console cycle affecting sales as well.

Dunkelheit
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Location: Somewhere in Spain

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dunkelheit »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:37 am
Sorry, you said erg, not eni, you're right.
On Engie, I guess we will see. This is a long term play for me.
German E.on is doing a similar thing and also took a beating earlier this year, but I remain confident, cleaner energy is here to stay I think, when even companies like Royal Dutch say that natural gas is their future I think it's a sign.
Hi Seppia,

I was wondering, for an european investor, how do you see Royal Dutch at the current prices?

Do you have better ideas? I was thinking about buying Neste Oyj, a finnish energy company.

Thanks!

bryan
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Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

shorting INTC (more) before earnings. Probably because I like to lose money in this account..

TSLA again:
One thing that just occurred to me is that the full electric semi may be more for port/hub intracity operations? Good news for places like LA, Houston, NYC, NOLA, OAK, and all those cities in China. I have no idea of the break-down of costs of semis used intra-city vs inter-city, though. Also, the semi may open the door for successful retro-fitting operations.

edit: apparently etfdb.com has recently gimped their free offering (upgrade for $200/yr!). Are there any good free alternatives? I used it mostly for stuff like http://etfdb.com/stock/TCTZF/ (should show you ETF's with high allocation to e.g. $TCTZF) in combination w/ http://www.xtf.com/ETF-Factsheets/CPER (shows you some stats of ETF e.g. $CPER).

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

Considering MOS after today's drop. Not sure it's the right time quite yet, but prices are firming and their cost management looks good. They also have a decent amount of cash on the balance sheet and so can support the dividend.

bryan
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Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

bryan wrote:
Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:25 pm
More stronger than expected earnings coming from $YELP. Nullified almost all my paper profits from that particular trade. I maintain my long term SELL rating.
Closed my short position for YELP today, though it could keep going down in the long term. I feel good about the profit level.

For my real portfolio, opened a position of JJC (copper ETN) as part of my commodity/precious metals asset allocation. I would prefer to have some of the physical stuff but I can't really store it so easily. Might think about it more in the future.

Chad
Posts: 3844
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

I bought a little SNAP today. FB is a goliath and Instagram is doing well, but it seems to be in a different space than SNAP. I do think SNAP will be problem for them going forward. SNAP seems to have captured the under 25 or 30 market fairly well. Once they figure out how to manage everything a little better they should be a real competitor. Of course, no way to be certain.

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

You must have a stomach for high beta. I've lost mine over the past 6 months. Sold LC yesterday for just over break even.

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

I'm comfortable with it on certain stocks. I expect it from SNAP, so I'm fine with it. I would not be fine with it from a company like T, VZ, etc., which are both starting to look go. Especially, T.

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Seppia
Posts: 2016
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Dunkelheit wrote:
Thu Apr 27, 2017 5:18 am
Seppia wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:37 am
Sorry, you said erg, not eni, you're right.
On Engie, I guess we will see. This is a long term play for me.
German E.on is doing a similar thing and also took a beating earlier this year, but I remain confident, cleaner energy is here to stay I think, when even companies like Royal Dutch say that natural gas is their future I think it's a sign.
Hi Seppia,

I was wondering, for an european investor, how do you see Royal Dutch at the current prices?

Do you have better ideas? I was thinking about buying Neste Oyj, a finnish energy company.

Thanks!
Sorry for the wait, I'm trying to go on an internet detox and I connect less often to the forum.
It seems I got lucky so far with Engie, up ok since late January.

Royal Dutch is my largest holding among stocks, I have started buying it when I started investing in 2004 and never ever sold a single share, always reinvested the dividends.
25€ is historically an average price, it could be had for ridiculously cheap not long ago (the lowest I bought it was at 19, it went all the way down to 17.9).
Right now in Europe I cannot find anything that I consider super cheap, so I put my active investments on hold for now (I invest my excess money 50% on auto pilot in index funds and 50% actively) and I'm building up cash.

Had I to buy something I guess I would either go for Generali, Engie (still cheap in my opinion) or royal Dutch.
Royal Dutch is an impressive cash machine, almost all the return comes from dividends

Dunkelheit
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:24 pm
Location: Somewhere in Spain

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dunkelheit »

Seppia wrote:
Sat May 13, 2017 9:08 am
Sorry for the wait, I'm trying to go on an internet detox and I connect less often to the forum.
It seems I got lucky so far with Engie, up ok since late January.

Royal Dutch is my largest holding among stocks, I have started buying it when I started investing in 2004 and never ever sold a single share, always reinvested the dividends.
25€ is historically an average price, it could be had for ridiculously cheap not long ago (the lowest I bought it was at 19, it went all the way down to 17.9).
Right now in Europe I cannot find anything that I consider super cheap, so I put my active investments on hold for now (I invest my excess money 50% on auto pilot in index funds and 50% actively) and I'm building up cash.

Had I to buy something I guess I would either go for Generali, Engie (still cheap in my opinion) or royal Dutch.
Royal Dutch is an impressive cash machine, almost all the return comes from dividends
Seppia, thanks for your detailed reply! I feel in the same position as you, struggling to find value somewhere. Finally I bought some RDSA, basically atracted by the (maybe unsustainable) dividend, and will buy more if it goes down. By the way, what do you think about its competitor Total? Its dividend is lower but still >5% and seems less indebted.

Greetings,
Dunkelheit

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Seppia
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Location: South Florida

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Total is the other oil major I used to own when I was living in France, but now that I live in Italy I have sold it because of the double taxation on dividends.
There are some forms to get the extra taxes paid back, but they are an administrative pain.
Any dividend from French companies gets taxed 30% first (the French rate), then another 26% (the Italian rate).
If you live in Europe (I guess you do since Burzum is not well known in the USA - I'm a big fan by the way) you'll probably get the same double tax.
Not sure if you love in the USA, they maybe have ADRs or whatever they are called, like for royal Dutch.
One underestimated advantage of royal Dutch is their dividend reinvestment program (scrip).
Instead of paying out the dividend, they give you the equivalent value in free stocks, so basically you pay NO taxes today.
Example: say your gross dividend is 102€, and the stock goes for 25€.
If you take the cash you get 102€, minus the 15% Dutch tax, minus the 26% Italian tax, getting approx 64.16€.
If you ask for the dividend in stocks, you will get 4 stocks for 0€ added to your total, plus 2€ in cash taxed the normal way.

Dunkelheit
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:24 pm
Location: Somewhere in Spain

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dunkelheit »

Seppia wrote:
Sun May 14, 2017 2:06 am
Total is the other oil major I used to own when I was living in France, but now that I live in Italy I have sold it because of the double taxation on dividends.
There are some forms to get the extra taxes paid back, but they are an administrative pain.
Any dividend from French companies gets taxed 30% first (the French rate), then another 26% (the Italian rate).
If you live in Europe (I guess you do since Burzum is not well known in the USA - I'm a big fan by the way) you'll probably get the same double tax.
Not sure if you love in the USA, they maybe have ADRs or whatever they are called, like for royal Dutch.
One underestimated advantage of royal Dutch is their dividend reinvestment program (scrip).
Instead of paying out the dividend, they give you the equivalent value in free stocks, so basically you pay NO taxes today.
Example: say your gross dividend is 102€, and the stock goes for 25€.
If you take the cash you get 102€, minus the 15% Dutch tax, minus the 26% Italian tax, getting approx 64.16€.
If you ask for the dividend in stocks, you will get 4 stocks for 0€ added to your total, plus 2€ in cash taxed the normal way.
Hi Seppia,

Thanks for such a valuable information! You guessed well, I am an spaniard, so I will suffer unfortunately the same double taxation issue. Thanks for sharing this info about the Shell's dividend reinvestment program, I will contact my broker because it seems the most tax-friendly option. I didn't give much importante to this double taxation, but as you say, it is a painful administrative work. I still have taxes to recover from Nestle since 2015...

It is a pity that for Total the reinvestment plan is only possible for french residents. Do you know more european companies with a good yield and this option?

Greetings,
Dunkelheit

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

VZ has dropped back into the 5% yield range, so consider adding it if you're wanting a telecom.

halfmoon
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by halfmoon »

George the original one wrote:
Mon May 15, 2017 2:14 pm
VZ has dropped back into the 5% yield range, so consider adding it if you're wanting a telecom.
I have VZ and think every day about selling it (but the dividend!). I'm worried about debt levels, especially with the Straight Path purchase. What are your thoughts on this?

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

T is also above 5% again and has much better debt/book value, although that might change if/when they buy TWX. It all depends how they put the merger to work, same with VZ.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

VZ & T are masters at working with debt, so I'm not too worried about it for them. VZ & T in the past year have become much different companies than what we used to think of them as and I think they both have good potential. Execution is what will matter in the long run; historically T is better at execution, but VZ seem to finally be getting their act together. Paradoxically, Mr. Market valued VZ above T for the past 7-8 years and are now removing the premium VZ enjoyed.

Basically, I think they're both a buy when their dividends are above 5%. Watch the upcoming year to see what they do with recent purchases and we can readjust our holdings as needed.

halfmoon
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by halfmoon »

These are encouraging words, as I also hold T (both long-term). I've been concerned about their payout ratios, debt and valuations. Holding now. :)

Dunkelheit
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dunkelheit »

I have just found that IB only accepts dividend reinvestment plans for US-based companies :(

VZ sounds good, but unfortunately the €/$ doesn't help today. In Spain we have a similar one with high-yield, but smaller, Telefonica. They are trying to reduce debt without success since decades.

Greetings,
Dunkelheit

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

If you buy VZ and/or T it is probably a good idea to plan on holding them until at least 2019 or 2020 when they are scheduled to roll out true 5G. Their spending, such as their bidding war the last couple weeks for Straight Path, will definitely be big during this time frame. However, 5G will be major improvement and will really be the beginning of broad adoption of "everything talking to everything".

T seems to be the best positioned for vertical integration of services with the DirectTV purchase, but I don't think either is bad long-term.

I'm probably going to purchase one or both of them in my taxable portion of my investments and add to my father's holdings of both at these levels.

halfmoon
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by halfmoon »

Because I received great input on VZ & T here, I'm going to angle for more. No good deed goes unpunished.

We hold GILD in two accounts (makes us twice as dumb?). I've been teetering on the verge of selling one of the holdings, but I keep thinking it should be a good long-term investment. I know they've suffered from actually curing Hepatitis C instead of just treating it...what were they thinking?? ;) Still (and even saying this makes me feel like capitalist scum), the rising heroin epidemic could bring a lot of new and repeat customers.

Scummy profiteering aside, the company has things I like: low P/E, pretty good dividend, low payout ratio, deep enough pockets for additional pipeline acquisition. Analysts on Fidelity somewhat favor it. Yet the stock price is in the basement, and it's pretty dark down here.

Thoughts? Cut and run or hold? Just don't say "buy more", because I already did that at 66.70. :oops:

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