Investments Trade Log

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halfmoon
Posts: 697
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:19 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by halfmoon »

Interesting point, George. Most successful tech companies are in the process of transforming themselves, and I like to think that T and VZ will be tech companies of a sort in the future. From what I read, 5G will be key to Internet of Things.

As long as I'm on the subject of hope-based investing: any thoughts on GILD?

cmonkey
Posts: 1814
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

After seeing so much money flowing into growth away from value, its nice to see a reversal start!

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C40
Posts: 2748
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

Bought some O in my Roth. (most of the money I used was from a conversion from Traditional to Roth, to start my ladder, and that all came from dividends from stocks in the Traditional).

And made these changes in my Traditional to push up my dividend income there:
- Sold a chunk of VYM. (I bought it in August last year. Gained 7% of capital gains, and 2.3% from dividends). And spent the proceeds evenly on these:
- OHI
- SBRA
- WPC

The VYM was yielding around 3%, and the ones I bought yield around 7%. These changes in my Traditional increase my dividends by $1,300 per year, and the O in my Roth gets me another $600/year.

George the original one
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Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

Verizon buying Yahoo is complete now and Marissa Mayer has resigned. Stock price is down something like 13% since Jan 1 if you're shopping. Here are some notes I've pulled from the Reuters article:

Verizon, the No. 1 U.S. wireless operator, is combining Yahoo with AOL, which it bought two years ago, to form a venture called Oath, led by AOL CEO Tim Armstrong. Oath's more than 50 brands include HuffPost, TechCrunch and Tumblr.

Reuters reported last week that Verizon planned to cut about 2,000 jobs, or 15 percent, of the 14,000 employees at its Yahoo and AOL units. Verizon is expected to make cuts as early as Wednesday. Yahoo cut 15 percent of its workforce last year and AOL cut 500 jobs.

On Friday, the remainder of Yahoo not acquired by Verizon will be renamed Altaba Inc, a holding company whose primary assets will be its 15.5 percent stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA.N) and a 35.5 percent holding in Yahoo Japan Corp <4689.T>.

Chad
Posts: 3844
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

Verizon buying Yahoo and combining it with AOL will only really matter if the FCC and current administration manage to break the current open internet model.

cmonkey
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Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

Any thoughts on SSW? Seems their biggest headwind might be the future of international trade agreements, but I don't know how much these concerns will pan out since Trump can't seem to get anything done. Revenues are higher than ever, but have plateaued a bit. EPS has gone down due to more shares being issued. P/E and P/B are very good.

distracted_at_work
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work »

I really really want to buy SHOP. I've regreted missing the boat since I started following it from $30 last year. This one is listed in Canada and the U.S.A. Any thoughts?

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

SSW is interesting. The short-term negative is the rise of populism and protectionism. It seems to be receding a little, but it's hard to count it out for good. The long-term negative is super cheap automated factories that can be easily retooled because of advanced AIs (not SciFi AIs). These factories will reduce the cost of labor to a point where it won't matter that much for many items and could make it more feasible to just build a bunch of small factories near or in the major population centers and economies of the world. This would cut out a portion of overseas shipping that SSW does.

I do like the valuation, dividend, and the fact that it actually makes money. They did cut their dividend recently, but that just brought it in-line with their current profit level. I would think shipping would rebound from the beating it has taken over the last two years, if populism and protectionism don't get in the way.

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

I would rather buy AMZN that SHOP. I keep hoping for a nice 10-15% pullback on AMZN to buy some more. The recent pullback didn't quite go far enough.

A really good analysis of what AMZN does:
https://stratechery.com/2017/amazons-new-customer/

That does not mean I hate SHOP. I just think AMZN is the Standard Oil of the modern age and competes tangentially with SHOP. Though, I'm not even sure there is a historical comparison for what AMZN will probably become. Maybe the East India Company?

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

I doubt you are going to get a pullback like that. This latest drop was probably one of the best you'll get. Maybe if some antitrust efforts get started? Seems likely at some point.

AMZN is pure bubble/speculation and the sky is the limit until their moat dries up, but since they keep making it deeper that is unlikely. 5K per share by 2020 if future P/E follows past.

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

Nothing ever goes straight up or down. Three months from now analysts will be asking why AMZN hasn't capitalized on the WFM purchase and start saying AMZN is faltering. Some news agencies will pick it up and run with it, and some AMZN delivery truck will hit some little old lady and...the pullback appears. But, who knows, you might be right. Maybe I never get more, which is fine. I don't like buying companies, even historic ones, near highs.

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jennypenny
Posts: 6851
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny »

Why is amazon still considered a tech company? I saw Bezos was at the WH yesterday with Schmidt and Cook and wondered why amazon is lumped in with Alphabet and Apple.

bryan
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

I guess it inherited the trait from the dot com era? Any business that was online as a front-end is a tech company. Like, do you consider EBAY, ETSY, UBER, or NETFLIX a tech company today? Then again, at least amazon gets some good money from AWS and kindles.

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

AWS supports this image as well. They have done a lot of pioneering in the cloud tech space.

Also, why break a catchy acronym (FANG)?

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

Amazon is most definitely a tech company. It's not what they sell, 99% of their stuff is sold by other stores, or that they deliver. It's how they sell and how their systems allow them to be efficient.

Some of their tech stuff:
- Prime video
- Prime music
- Warehouse robots
- Efficient inventory systems
- Efficient delivery systems - I can get some stuff the same day in DC.
- Echo (AI) and machine learning
- Data - Customer, vendor, delivery, etc.
- AWS - If AWS was a stand alone company it would still be in the Fortune 500

Selling physical goods is what everyone sees, but their real business is all behind the scenes. The physical goods are the proverbial tip of the iceberg.

A better question going forward is what company isn't a tech company? Wal-Mart just bought Jet.com trying to catch-up to Amazon. I have also noticed, as I have looked for jobs in the San Fran/San Jose area that Wal-Mart is hiring a lot of high level tech people for their operations in that area.

distracted_at_work
Posts: 202
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work »

This world needs less acronyms not more.

Anyway. I think SHOP will ride up with AMZN as the digital storefront providers while AMZN handles distribution of the product. I bought in today at $111 Canadian, let's see how this goes. If I can make 10% in under a month, I'll be happy. If not, I believe in the business long-term.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

Someone controlling a lot of shares dumped OHI today at the open, possibly in fear of Medicaid/Medicare reform.

bryan
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

Sold (short) WMT.

Mostly I think their free 2-day shipping will be a disaster. Don't think their relationship w/ vendors is healthy enough to profit so nicely w/ AMZN competition. I was in a store the other day because they had my (uncommon) motor oil on a deep discount, but turns out none were on the shelf. I suspected a pricing mistake because they had overflowing product for the same brand but different spec and for the same product in the auto parts store would be >2x the cost. However, I saw it on their website with free shipping. Sure, why not! (On second thought... Maybe I should re-order even more motor oil..) Meanwhile AMZN is pulling more people into Prime even though it's not such a great deal now.. and if you don't have Prime the free shipping (orders over $35?) is slow as molasses.

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giskard
Posts: 320
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Doubled down on my JP Morgan Chase (JPM) position yesterday (7/3/2017), here is my reasoning:

Interest rates are going up and the Fed has signaled this will continue. JPM just had their capital return plan approved and will raise its dividend to $0.56 from $0.50, along with an almost $20 Billion dollar buyback plan. JPM continues to have a strong balance sheet and has avoided the impending subprime auto loan issues that are starting to hit Capital one, Ally and Santander. I think JPM is priced more reasonably than most of the regional banks, and feels better run than competitors like Bank of America. One big worry is the succession plan for Jamie Dimon.

Chad
Posts: 3844
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad »

cmonkey wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:49 am
Any thoughts on SSW? Seems their biggest headwind might be the future of international trade agreements, but I don't know how much these concerns will pan out since Trump can't seem to get anything done. Revenues are higher than ever, but have plateaued a bit. EPS has gone down due to more shares being issued. P/E and P/B are very good.
I hope you bought some of it.

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