Investments Trade Log

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dragoncar
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Post by dragoncar »

Jacob, you don't think gold will come down, or you don't care because you'll be hedged?


DividendGuy
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Post by DividendGuy »

I wish I had some capital for the market free fall today. Hopefully equities stay depressed for the next few days until I receive my commission check this Thursday.
There is a lot of blue chips on sale right now. PEP is down 10% over the last 30 days. PG also looks attractive.
http://www.dividendmantra.com/2011/08/opportunity.html
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm a bit surprised the market was as chaotic as it was today with the debt deal getting done. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but no surprises. Our AAA credit rating still stands, so the market may rebound tomorrow.
I'm definitely going to stock up on a blue chip later this week, especially if the DOW stays below 12k.


jacob
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Post by jacob »

@dragoncar - Gold IS my hedge. Just look at what happened today.
I don't think the stock market will go up beyond the 12000 range. The earnings aren't there and I don't see where they would come from. The only way would be to increase the P/E multiple that investors are willing to accept---how's your future optimism? So people won't sell gold to buy stocks.
I don't think the government is likely to raise interest rates voluntarily. A lot of money is going into the system to prevent deflation. The money velocity is low because people aren't spending as they're busy trying to get rid off all their debt, so to prevent deflation, the government can only respond with more money. (I suppose this is the theory that you can put out a fire with gasoline if you pour fast enough.)
All this is good for gold.


Wes
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Post by Wes »

gold, gold, gold!


George the original one
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Post by George the original one »

@Dividendguy - The budget and debt ceiling was the excuse the market needed to finally pay attention to flat jobs report and stagnating growth and the first time that consumers have reduced spending in 20 months. It's not clear right now where future profit growth will come from. I think you've got time to pick and choose your stocks for at least a week or two.
Fully agree that PEP and PG look like good value right now compared to their historical yield.


dragoncar
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Post by dragoncar »

Jacob, interesting outlook. I've asked you before why stocks are expensive and you pointed to the shiller pe chat for s&p. Have you looked at an inflation adjusted graph of gold prices recently? A bit deja vu. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/imag ... _chart.htm
Bonds are expensive too, right? And cash? Ugh.
Nevertheless, I too am interested in the pp, but the tax issues and execution strategies are daunting... There are so many variants out there! Even prpfx is really just pp inspired, not a 25-25-25-25.
Can I do this with three etfs and cash? Do I put the gold in my tax deferred accounts? Maybe a separate thread (or I could spend months reading other forums!)


jerry
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Post by jerry »

With gold quadrupling within 6 years, I have a hard time considering it or PP with 25% gold a safe long term investment. While gold may continue on up to 3000, I wouldn't bet my retirement on it.
I did add to my position in WM yesterday as I consider landfills/recycling centers, etc to be the goldmines of the 21st century.


JohnnyH
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Post by JohnnyH »

@Dragoncar/jerry: Yes, my personal bias is that 3/4 components of the PP are not things I want to be in right now... But I've done much better with the PP than I have trading my attempts at fundamental analysis. I can't find anything that has done as well over the last 40 years, while avoiding large draw-downs.
That's the beauty of the PP, you don't have to bet your retirement. It is much less volatile than any of the components are individually... Even if gold plummets 50% to $835, and none of the other components rise (very unlikely), you'd still have 87.5% of your portfolio left.
I would advocate ETFs, rather than PRPFX. CrawlingRoad has details; TLT (4% div) for long term bonds, VTI/SPY (2.5% div) for market. I use a mix of 35% foreign equities which have good dividends...


dragoncar
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Post by dragoncar »

Sold all my stocks at the close today. Just kidding, but I sure wish I had converted to PP like I was planning yesterday. DividendGuy thought there were some good deals a few days ago, so now it should be very attractive. Still, this is one of those head scratchers for me. Given the news of the day, why did the market drop so much? This blows up many efficient market theories.


Sojourner7
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Post by Sojourner7 »

Dow down 500; what a day! The interesting thing was the increased intensity mid day and again at the end.
I've been looking for a place to buy back in, but I didn't do it today. There was too much downward pressure at closing for me to be comfortable. I guess we'll have to wait and see if it was a good buying opportunity or if we've got some more moves down coming up. Either way, lots of action and excitement.
Anyone make any trades or gambles today?


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jennypenny
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Post by jennypenny »

I'm close to pulling the trigger on Ford. PG and JPM are also coming very close to my buy criteria.
BofA meets my criteria now but I HATE that company so I just can't do it. I'd rather own JPM in that sector.


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C40
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Post by C40 »

Pretty happy with my timing on converting to PP within the last couple weeks. Today S&P down almost 5%, PRPFX up 0.53%
Edit -- ugh, it's down 2%
I've been watching the daily variation of PRPFX compared to VTI, TLT, SHY, and IAU. There were PRPFX didn't follow the average of those 4 as closely as I'd like to see it. I don't know if this is because of the different allocation PRPFX uses, or if it's that I'm looking at too short of a timeline (?)


jacob
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Post by jacob »

@dragoncar - Margin calls/covering.


DividendGuy
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Post by DividendGuy »

@dragoncar
You read my mind. Today is extremely attractive. I hope that my investment views are seen with the caveat that I'm extremely long-term (40 years out).
I bought into the oil sell-off too early in the day and added to my holdings with Chevron. I wish I would have waited until later in the day, but I bought when it was already down quite a bit. I didn't think we'd experience the biggest drop in three years today. I just happened to receive my commission check today on the big drop. Great timing on the part of my job, but bad timing on the part of myself unfortunately.
Blue chips like PEP and PG are phenomenal buys right now. Even Coke dropped quite a bit. International companies like TEVA and TEF are great buys.
I hope it continues to drop. Great buying opportunities.


KevinW
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Post by KevinW »

@C40

See this thread: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/in ... pic=1257.0
PRPFX's bond allocation is smaller than 25%, and bonds have been the winner for the last few days.


m741
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Post by m741 »

What dividend plays stand out right now? Seems like a lot of blue chhips haven't been hammered too badly. For instance, PG is only trading at the level it was in March. So it's set back ~3 months, but that's not too much. Same with names like ABT, JNJ, PEP, etc.
One name, not a pure dividend play, that sticks out to me is MMM. I think it's been way oversold.


jacob
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Post by jacob »

Asia is down. At least they didn't have to sell gold to cover their positions/they moved into gold.
Odds are the show continues tomorrow. The European markets open in about an hour.


jacob
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Post by jacob »

BTW I suspect/hope this is a short term hiccup (like the Greek issue earlier this year) rather than a sentiment switch to "let's consider all news to be negative from now on".
If not, pick telecom and utilities to ride it down to DOW <<10k. Pick mining and energy to ride it up. If you feel gutsy, US treasuries is the safest place on the planet.
My "active" portfolio (the one I get my dividends from) was down 4% today. It's big on telecom. It also has lower beta (m)REITs and utilities. Large positions in GE and WFC dragged it down.
My IRA which is 23% gold, 37% bonds, and 50% Dogs was down 1% today. It was actually in neutral until gold started selling off.
Seeing that the politicians don't seem too inclined to fix this credit problem, I wonder what the solution is for the individual ... somehow the western world has to start producing useful stuff again. This is, of course, a funny thing to say for someone who retired (but then again, my job didn't entail making anything useful in the first place). I do think we could produce useful stuff in more limited amounts. I just don't trust this whole mass scale economy based on service+finance+government+military. That complex simply produces nothing---it just rearranges products.


George the original one
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Post by George the original one »

In the past few days, I've sold JNJ, DPM, WPC, and ARCC as they've hit my mental stop losses. Some of these were total sales (DPM) and others partial.
T is starting to flirt with my stop loss and I'm trying to decide whether I want to pay attention or not. I'm inclined to let that one ride.
It's weird to watch the BDCs get clobbered, yet the mREITs are holding ground.
Oh, yes, I also sold FAX on Tuesday when the debt deal was signed. It was pretty obvious to me that faith in the US$ was being restored and thus reverse the decline vs. the Aussie$, at least temporarily. Expect to repurchase FAX once the currencies stabilize.
LTC will report earnings on Monday. It's down to an attractive purchase price, so I might add some today. UHT is also down to an attractive price. On the other hand, the healthcare REITs are still getting beaten up due to fears about Medicare/Medicaid cuts.


dragoncar
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Post by dragoncar »

George & Dividendguy: Just goes to show that one man's stop loss is another man's limit order.


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