Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:10 am

Dunkelheit wrote:
Seppia wrote:Bought some more Engie today, one of the best bargains in Europe in my opinion.
Now my second largest single stock holding after Royal Dutch
Hi Seppia, here another european investor glad to read and learn ;)

Now that I read your last buy, I would like to ask you a couple of questions:

- What are your prospects regarding Engie?
- What's your opinion on another utility, the italian ERG?

Thanks!
Engie is taking a pounding because of their now not so profitable shift to renewables and gas.
In my opinion they are just doing what the French do best with their state owned companies: plan VERY long term.
The TGV project for example started in the late 70s and went break even in the 2000s, but they were by then in a position to profit massively from their technological edge (except for the Japanese, nobody had such a great technology in super fast trains).
They did the same in the 80s with nuclear energy.

While what Engie is doing may hurt them short term, I view this as being at the very front in a few years when the inevitable will happen.

Also, Engie owns a very large stake (I think it's 30% if I'm not mistaken) in Suez who basically does waste management (another thing of the future in my opinion: how stupid is that now waste is managed at the micro level almost everywhere? This will change)

Lastly: they already announced a dividend of 0.7€ per share for the next two years, at the current 11.65€ price that's almost 6%.

I would avoid Italian state owned companies

Dunkelheit
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Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:24 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dunkelheit » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:59 pm

Hi Seppia, many thanks for your explanation. I have checked more about Engie in another forums and the opinions I have received are not very optimistic, at least in the short-term, as you say. It is changing its whole model and it will need hard measures to achieve it. The worst problem I have read about is the nuclear energy, since getting rid of it could be extremely expensive. Besides, the dividend doesn't seem sustainable in the long-term due to the cash flow needed right now for the model change. The company seems to be fastly decapitalizing.

As far as I have found, ERG is not state owned, but 63% family owned. The business is mostly focused on renewable energy and oil.

Cheers,
Dunkelheit

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Seppia
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:37 am

Sorry, you said erg, not eni, you're right.
On Engie, I guess we will see. This is a long term play for me.
German E.on is doing a similar thing and also took a beating earlier this year, but I remain confident, cleaner energy is here to stay I think, when even companies like Royal Dutch say that natural gas is their future I think it's a sign.

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bryan
Posts: 522
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:09 pm

bought: ACM
sell (short): ALL, INTC

and in my larger portfolio I've picked up some VAW and reduced exposure to US bonds.

For ALL it is part of my long term negative view on insurance/bank corps. ACM I bought for speculation on recent events (Lake Oroville dam, infrastructure failing rather than being maintained, etc) and plan to hold at least one year. For INTC it seems that competition is catching up, more or less.

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jennypenny
Posts: 5117
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:15 am

Put in an order for RDUS.

Also watching utilities, rail, and farmland names. And SEDG.

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Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:58 am

I just made a napkin calculation and if I'm not mistaken, Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Facebook are worth more (market cap) than all of the German stock market combined.
I'll take Germany, thanks.

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Dragline
Posts: 4133
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:17 am

I've been building positions in XOM and NKE to hold for about a year or more. Selling covered calls to exit on remaining shares of IBM, GS and WY, which are mostly gone now. On REITS, recently bought VTR and GLPI. Also bought some ENB and a little TLT and GLD.

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cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:21 pm

So rates get hiked (with more coming) and financials go flat/down, REITS/Utilities go through the roof. Eh?

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:13 pm

@cmonkey - you're not the only confused person... why does GLD go up when the dollar will be stronger?

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Dragline
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:17 pm

Well, short-term movements are all about expectations. As some famous investor (Buffett? Graham?) said, in the short-term the market is just a voting machine. It only becomes a weighing machine long-term.

My guess is that prior to the announcement, people were speculating on three more rate hikes this year (or more than 1/4 point now) and the Fed came in at "less than expectations." A lot of the movement today was simply a reversal of what happened in the past week or so, so there may have been some covering of positions, too -- that old "buy/sell on the rumor, sell/buy on the news" thing.

It also tells us that if for some reason there are not two more rate hikes this year, you can expect the same kind of action around the time of the next announcement.

The most notable thing is that the yield curve just flattened, especially on the front end: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

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jennypenny
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Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:25 pm

I thought the gist of the perceived good news today was that the Fed went ahead with the rate hike despite the recent weak economic data.

@GTOO -- Trump is actively pushing for a weaker dollar to improve US trade prospects. That will inflate gold.

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cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:13 pm

Dragline wrote:My guess is that prior to the announcement, people were speculating on three more rate hikes this year (or more than 1/4 point now) and the Fed came in at "less than expectations." A lot of the movement today was simply a reversal of what happened in the past week or so, so there may have been some covering of positions, too -- that old "buy/sell on the rumor, sell/buy on the news" thing
I pondered this on the bus home today and came to that conclusion as well. The market wanted more 'hawkishness', three 25 basis point moves isn't as much yield as the REITs. I think I saw something about some expectations of 4 hikes, but then went they with 3 for now.

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distracted_at_work
Posts: 82
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:51 am
Location: Western Canada

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work » Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:29 am

I'm not proud of what I'm about to say...

I bought APH - Canadian weed stock - near all time highs today. As far as I'm concerned, I put some money down at the casino and it is spent and gone. This buy is legitimately a bet on weed stocks getting a big bump for 4/20 and the legislation supposed to come out next week.

My exit range is -100% to +20%.

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bryan
Posts: 522
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Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:43 pm

Seems my trailing stop loss for TSLA got triggered near the end of April 5 (damn..), leaving me w/ a short term gain of 58%. You know what they say.. sell the winners and let the losers ride.

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:48 pm

haha, they also say "a bird in the hand ..."

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Dragline
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:29 pm

Bought XLE, NKE and TLT today and sold covered calls on half of those positions. Sold covered calls to exit MCD.

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:04 pm

In my non-trading fund (the bulk of the money), I've been buying short and long term treasuries, and adding to gold. I'm inching closer to a golden butterfly. I'm having trouble convincing myself to buy into the stock part of the allocation right now, although I have bought several REITs. Apparently my golden butterfly is going to have REIT antennae.

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distracted_at_work
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Location: Western Canada

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by distracted_at_work » Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:33 pm

Stop-loss triggered on APH this morning for a tiny $250 profit. That was fun?

Edit: I know I said I would ride to -100% but I wasn't at my desk all week so I decided to hedge. Good thing, otherwise I would have been down already 20% on that bet. I can't stomach these trades, lesson learned.
Last edited by distracted_at_work on Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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bryan
Posts: 522
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Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:48 pm

haha, they also say "a bird in the hand ..."
I never liked that saying :)

On the topic of TSLA and From another thread:
jacob wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:37 pm
There's no Tesla Truck.
Well Tesla will be showing their alleged self-driving (drivers are ~25% of fleet operating cost) full-electric (fuel is ~40% of fleet operating cost) semi this year. Pick-ups and vans are not far off. The later two, I think will be the real cash cow for Tesla. I'm not sure about the semis.. it makes a lot more sense to me to make these things hybrids? "Industry experts" are saying the truck will only be able to travel 200-300 miles before needing a charge or swap but I anticipate some iPhone-level industry surprise coming (could be something like it actually being a hybrid, some financing/leasing innovation, re-fuelling spots offering super cheap electricity, some crazy electricity storage scheme (you may be able to deliver electricity from cheap areas to expensive areas as a by-product?), getting 1000+ miles on the battery, Trump giving Musk a large subsidy, Tesla trailers featuring auxiliary battery, Tesla being a monopoly of quality large batteries, etc).

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one » Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:09 pm

I'm still waiting to hear what the self-driving and autonomous delivery vehicles will do about hijackings...

black_son_of_gray
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray » Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:27 am

@GTOO, many of the features necessary for theft deterrence will surely come standard on self-driving cars
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait_car)
E.g. remote start/kill switch, GPS navigation, cameras, etc.

So, a thief gets in it and drives off. After 2 minutes, the car pulls over to the side of the road, shuts down and locks all the doors until the police arrive.

I suppose it could be possible to override that, or hack it, but that would take some sophistication.

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Dragline
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:20 pm

George the original one wrote:
Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:09 pm
I'm still waiting to hear what the self-driving and autonomous delivery vehicles will do about hijackings...
I can see a lot of people hacking hitch-hiking on self-driving vehicles. You could go all kinds of places on them. We'll be hopping SDVs like people used to hop freights.

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Fish
Posts: 127
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 9:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Fish » Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:08 pm

Some algos scooped up the dollar bills I scattered in front of my steamroller. Mostly deep OTM options. Not an investment, just uninformed speculation based on a hunch that we are "due" for volatility. <0.1% of NW at stake. Gives me a reason to follow the market. In some alternate universe I will become a multi-millionaire. That's good enough for me. #EREgambler

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cmonkey
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Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:45 am

cmonkey wrote:
Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:57 pm
Sold CAT.
Curious how others have gotten past the kicking of one's own ass for past decisions. :roll:

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Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:55 am

A good process is better than an extra unpredictable gain.

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