Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Seppia » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:10 am

Dunkelheit wrote:
Seppia wrote:Bought some more Engie today, one of the best bargains in Europe in my opinion.
Now my second largest single stock holding after Royal Dutch

Hi Seppia, here another european investor glad to read and learn ;)

Now that I read your last buy, I would like to ask you a couple of questions:

- What are your prospects regarding Engie?
- What's your opinion on another utility, the italian ERG?

Thanks!


Engie is taking a pounding because of their now not so profitable shift to renewables and gas.
In my opinion they are just doing what the French do best with their state owned companies: plan VERY long term.
The TGV project for example started in the late 70s and went break even in the 2000s, but they were by then in a position to profit massively from their technological edge (except for the Japanese, nobody had such a great technology in super fast trains).
They did the same in the 80s with nuclear energy.

While what Engie is doing may hurt them short term, I view this as being at the very front in a few years when the inevitable will happen.

Also, Engie owns a very large stake (I think it's 30% if I'm not mistaken) in Suez who basically does waste management (another thing of the future in my opinion: how stupid is that now waste is managed at the micro level almost everywhere? This will change)

Lastly: they already announced a dividend of 0.7€ per share for the next two years, at the current 11.65€ price that's almost 6%.

I would avoid Italian state owned companies

Dunkelheit
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:24 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Dunkelheit » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:59 pm

Hi Seppia, many thanks for your explanation. I have checked more about Engie in another forums and the opinions I have received are not very optimistic, at least in the short-term, as you say. It is changing its whole model and it will need hard measures to achieve it. The worst problem I have read about is the nuclear energy, since getting rid of it could be extremely expensive. Besides, the dividend doesn't seem sustainable in the long-term due to the cash flow needed right now for the model change. The company seems to be fastly decapitalizing.

As far as I have found, ERG is not state owned, but 63% family owned. The business is mostly focused on renewable energy and oil.

Cheers,
Dunkelheit

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Seppia
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Seppia » Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:37 am

Sorry, you said erg, not eni, you're right.
On Engie, I guess we will see. This is a long term play for me.
German E.on is doing a similar thing and also took a beating earlier this year, but I remain confident, cleaner energy is here to stay I think, when even companies like Royal Dutch say that natural gas is their future I think it's a sign.

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bryan
Posts: 480
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby bryan » Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:09 pm

bought: ACM
sell (short): ALL, INTC

and in my larger portfolio I've picked up some VAW and reduced exposure to US bonds.

For ALL it is part of my long term negative view on insurance/bank corps. ACM I bought for speculation on recent events (Lake Oroville dam, infrastructure failing rather than being maintained, etc) and plan to hold at least one year. For INTC it seems that competition is catching up, more or less.

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jennypenny
Posts: 5061
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby jennypenny » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:15 am

Put in an order for RDUS.

Also watching utilities, rail, and farmland names. And SEDG.

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Seppia
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Seppia » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:58 am

I just made a napkin calculation and if I'm not mistaken, Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Facebook are worth more (market cap) than all of the German stock market combined.
I'll take Germany, thanks.

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Dragline
Posts: 4044
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Dragline » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:17 am

I've been building positions in XOM and NKE to hold for about a year or more. Selling covered calls to exit on remaining shares of IBM, GS and WY, which are mostly gone now. On REITS, recently bought VTR and GLPI. Also bought some ENB and a little TLT and GLD.

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cmonkey
Posts: 1368
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby cmonkey » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:21 pm

So rates get hiked (with more coming) and financials go flat/down, REITS/Utilities go through the roof. Eh?

George the original one
Posts: 4076
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby George the original one » Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:13 pm

@cmonkey - you're not the only confused person... why does GLD go up when the dollar will be stronger?

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Dragline
Posts: 4044
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby Dragline » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:17 pm

Well, short-term movements are all about expectations. As some famous investor (Buffett? Graham?) said, in the short-term the market is just a voting machine. It only becomes a weighing machine long-term.

My guess is that prior to the announcement, people were speculating on three more rate hikes this year (or more than 1/4 point now) and the Fed came in at "less than expectations." A lot of the movement today was simply a reversal of what happened in the past week or so, so there may have been some covering of positions, too -- that old "buy/sell on the rumor, sell/buy on the news" thing.

It also tells us that if for some reason there are not two more rate hikes this year, you can expect the same kind of action around the time of the next announcement.

The most notable thing is that the yield curve just flattened, especially on the front end: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

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jennypenny
Posts: 5061
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby jennypenny » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:25 pm

I thought the gist of the perceived good news today was that the Fed went ahead with the rate hike despite the recent weak economic data.

@GTOO -- Trump is actively pushing for a weaker dollar to improve US trade prospects. That will inflate gold.

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cmonkey
Posts: 1368
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Postby cmonkey » Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:13 pm

Dragline wrote:My guess is that prior to the announcement, people were speculating on three more rate hikes this year (or more than 1/4 point now) and the Fed came in at "less than expectations." A lot of the movement today was simply a reversal of what happened in the past week or so, so there may have been some covering of positions, too -- that old "buy/sell on the rumor, sell/buy on the news" thing


I pondered this on the bus home today and came to that conclusion as well. The market wanted more 'hawkishness', three 25 basis point moves isn't as much yield as the REITs. I think I saw something about some expectations of 4 hikes, but then went they with 3 for now.


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