Investments Trade Log

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Dragline
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:40 pm

Yeah, what you would probably have is months of speculation up or down on whatever he says until he actually takes office and appoints a cabinet. It's not unlike what's going on with Brexit.

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:43 pm

Looks like the Clinton rally is going to start a day early. Might add to gold.

I'm exhausted and there's still 54 coverage hours to go. I thought I'd get today off, but thanks to Comey no such luck.

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Dragline
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dragline » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:21 pm

I don't think gold will do well on a plus for Clinton in the next couple days. Only because the dollar is rallying. Maybe later, though.

Comey has turned "October surprise" into "November surprise". But I feel like he is already worried about his historical biography and was mad at subordinates who did not inform him early on about the Weiner-mails, and does not want to be blamed about who wins this election. The weirdness continues.

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cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:42 am

LC stock up 18% after results beat. As a retail investor I have been confident that results would start beating eventually. I put some money in back in September. I would expect some nice gains over the next year.

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cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:34 am

First open after the election and I am up 10 bucks at the start. Wasn't expecting that.

Infamous
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Infamous » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:15 pm

Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this, but is anyone investing in Medical Marijuana stocks?

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bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:01 pm

Well I've made some bets now..

Buy CCJ, GE, VIS, ERUS, VWO, VEA.
Sell EBAY.
closed (was short) AA.

Not large amounts, but enough to satiate the need to do something today. Still plenty on the sidelines waiting for the big one.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:42 am

Emerging markets are dropping steadily, another 6-7% and ill buy some more

Cornerman
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Cornerman » Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:50 am

Infamous wrote:Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this, but is anyone investing in Medical Marijuana stocks?
Bit of a gamble I reckon, mainly because of the possibility of Republicans destroying it , with Trump and all.

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Chad
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:55 pm

@Seppia
Yeah, I have shifted my new 401k money to be heavily weighted into EM funds since the pullback started.

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bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:20 pm

buy TSLA, ILF, VPL,
sell RDSA
close (was short) FB

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:31 am

Chad wrote:@Seppia
Yeah, I have shifted my new 401k money to be heavily weighted into EM funds since the pullback started.

Unfortunately it rebounded, and my limit order did not go through.

@bryan, can I ask you the thought process for buying tesla and selling royal Dutch?
RDSA has been my biggest holding since 2006 and I love them, I never sold once as I believe it's the best run energy company around.
Tesla, I would not touch with a 10ft pole, it's just a disaster waiting to happen in my opinion (in particular if the super shady solar city acquisition goes through)

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bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:39 am

on TSLA: mostly I've been wanting to invest in Elon for a long time now. It's recent slide feels like as good a time as any to buy in. Fundamentally they are innovating and scaling up rather nicely and it seems they have no problem with financing (and in fact have some interesting bond/carbon/energy credit synergy possibilities with the solar city acquisition). The only thing I'm a little hesitant on is Elon's desire to improve the world by keeping TSLA patents open for all to use.

on RDSA: taking my short term profit. Probably fine to keep on holding but I had bought them targeting short-term profits and am now wanting to make some contrarian trades with Trump being projected to win the election. I still own some CNQ.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:36 am

Thanks for your reply Bryan.
I would be cautious with tesla, the solar city deal has massive amounts of red flags in my opinion
- musk has major stakes in both companies
- solar city is basically bankrupt: this seems like Musk (tesla owner) bailing out Musk (solar city owner) by using tesla stock
- solar city operates in a business where almost none of the players makes money
Plus
- Tesla hasn't made a dime yet, if for any reason the capital stops coming they are dead within months
- Tesla so far has met around zero deadlines it set for itself, and apparently a lot rests on them being able to meet their model 3 numbers and deadlines.

Add to all this the cult like following that this company has (I mean, how many people gave them $1000 for the privilege to own one of their vehicles sometime in the future, at an unspecified date? We are in worse than Apple territory here).

Not for me

workathome
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by workathome » Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:53 am

Might be a good time to bet on higher volatility

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny » Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:23 am

Anyone anticipating any more big moves in the EUR - USD? Will the EUR recover a little? Fall further?

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:55 am

jennypenny wrote:Anyone anticipating any more big moves in the EUR - USD? Will the EUR recover a little? Fall further?

Has anyone in history ever been consistently successful in predicting currency fluctuations?
I have the impression that it's so influenced by non-forecastable events that it must be close to impossible.

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bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan » Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:23 pm

@Seppia, currency market is much like any other prediction market (maybe one of the most efficient/liquid?). If you only go all-in on wagers only when you have high confidence (say 85% chance) of winning, you will still converge on broke. That's why you never use Martingale.. and why stuff like Kelly criterion got discovered, at least.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:35 pm

Bryan: I 100% agree.
Exchange rate for me is a random exogenous element.
I consider it when I'm buying stuff, but I don't try to profit from it at any time.
Over the long run and across many trades, it should become irrelevant (especially if one focused on large internationally connected businesses)

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:55 pm

@Seppia - According to "expert traders", currencies is the easiest asset class to trade. Equity is the hardest. Now, before anyone signs up for a 10x leveraged account at random-scammy-offshore-broker, know that this is over the 2-5 year term.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:38 am

@Jacob
Intersting.
I never studied this, would you mind Pointing me in the direction of some good reading on the subject?
Thanks a ton

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:02 am


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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:23 am

Thanks!

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:27 am

I bought some Danone and some Engie yesterday.
Danone is a phenomenally well run company that sells yoghurt and dairy products, they recently bought the producers of Alpro (soy milk and other dairy substitutes) as a hedge against the decline in usage of dairy products (it's a recent trend).
It could fall further but long term I really like them.

Engie is French utilities, they are undergoing a big restructuring that will probably hurt them in the short term but that should position them very well for the future.
Similarly to E.on in Germany, they're making a big shift towards renewables, and it's hurting their bottom line.
Still, Engie will pay a 70c euro dividend in 2017 and 2018, and are now priced at 11.55€ per share

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Chad
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chad » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:41 am

I sold CAT, X, and CMI in my father's portfolio to lock in some very nice gains. Then sold STX for some offsetting losses, as it's hard to see how they will be able to continue that huge dividend (same with CAT).

While, I do think Trump's focus on infrastructure will help CAT, X, and CMI, it seems like that is already priced in. Especially, for CAT and X. CAT needs more than a US economy growing at 3-4% to hit their current P/E.

If these go back down before the government actually passes the infrastructure bill I will look at them again.

I've been looking at tech and I'm starting to look at healthcare, as both sectors are underperforming the market. Also, looking to add to my father's US pipeline companies for the dividends and maybe add to some of the higher quality shale plays once this oil rally dies and pulls back.

Still going very long on emerging markets, but that is in my portfolio, not my father's.

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