Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Anything to do with the traditional world of get a degree, get a job as well as its alternatives
Post Reply
SimpleLife
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:23 pm

Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by SimpleLife »

General mechanics don't seem to make a lot of money. I find this strange, because I cannot rebuild an engine. I could learn but with the current mechanics wages it doesn't seem worth it.

As an IT professional though, I wonder if my industry will eventually become like mechanics? I can't imagine that when cars were first invented that mechanics made low wages. I would think they were paid very well back in the day but as cars have become a commodity and mechanics are readily available everywhere, that this has driven down their wages. What's to keep this from happening to IT?

daylen
Posts: 2528
Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:17 am
Location: Lawrence, KS

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by daylen »

Pay is influenced by supply and demand. In IT, demand is high, supply is low relative to mechanics since information systems are more abstract than mechanical systems (less of the population is adapt to thinking abstractly).

Though, who knows what the distant future holds..

EDIT: I over estimated the amount of theory an IT professional required. In my mind, IT required at least some basic computer science background, but I guess that isn't necessarily true.
Last edited by daylen on Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

BRUTE
Posts: 3797
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by BRUTE »

brute thinks this dynamic probably happens in almost every industry.

if humans are honest, IT work is not much more complicated than mechanical work or repairing an engine. there's some moving parts, a bit of theory, lots of practice. brute thinks most programmers are closer to masons or brick stackers than architects. the market is just not as saturated yet, due to being younger.

Scott 2
Posts: 2824
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:34 pm

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by Scott 2 »

I think you are oversimplifying the profession of mechanic.

Pay for most people servicing consumer level products is low. Consumers are cheap. Working on geek squad at best buy doesn't pay well either.

SimpleLife
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:23 pm

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by SimpleLife »

Scott 2 wrote:I think you are oversimplifying the profession of mechanic.

Pay for most people servicing consumer level products is low. Consumers are cheap. Working on geek squad at best buy doesn't pay well either.
As I said, generally. Some mechanics for cars like BMW, Mercedes, etc. make more than your typical mechanic. But generally most don't make that much, around what the BB GS makes. But I would consider what a mechanic does to be more difficult actually in most cases. Hardware related computer issues are relatively easy to fix. It takes less skill than developing a JavaScript application so it pays less because the supply of people who can do it is high, while the demand for the service is low because most people with an IQ above two digits can do this type of stuff on their own. Yet they still make the same as a mechanic who has considerably more skill than them such as rebuilding an engine or transmission, something most people cannot do on their own. It's also dirtier, harder work. Yet mechanics often make so little.

As rapid application development technologies have flooded the market over the past decade+, more end users are able to do their own IT work. Take web development in the 90's. If you could write HTML or CSS you could earn a fat paycheck to write sites that were so simple that you could do them in notepad during lunch. Now, you can download forum software, download web site templates and modify them, and do your own basic web development in no time. Surely this can't be good for the industry. And as more people get into IT, the supply of workers will increase while the demand goes down with the advent of cloud services, and rapid application development.

JL13
Posts: 645
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 7:47 am

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by JL13 »

From what I understand, it is a pretty complicated job. Here's a typical article from a mechanics monthly magazine:

http://www.motor.com/wp-content/uploads ... T_0516.pdf

I have a hunch that if you adjust for competency, then the wages are probably closer than what the BLS averages would indicate. But you have so many varied jobs mixed into the numbers for auto repair (tire changers and lube techs for $8 an hour) that it drags the average down. You don't really have the equivalent in computer programming, as at the lower levels it's in another category (data entry?). But it is likely that you'll make more (and be much more comfortable) doing a computer programming job versus mechanic.

Cars have been moving towards modularization lately. Instead of replacing the CV joint, you just replace the entire axle (no user serviceable components inside). So auto repair has been concentrated at the factory where they assemble modules and the technicians are just swapping those out rather than rebuilding. Computers started going this route also, especially laptops and cellphones. It's cheaper just to swap the entire thing than repair it.

On the software side, maybe we'll see something like this develop. Maybe programming languages will evolve to where you just add preexisting components together (what do you call them in programming? Objects?). Kind of like Wordpress today versus HTML 20 years ago. If so I would expect the wages to fall.

SimpleLife
Posts: 771
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:23 pm

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by SimpleLife »

JL13 wrote:From what I understand, it is a pretty complicated job. Here's a typical article from a mechanics monthly magazine:

http://www.motor.com/wp-content/uploads ... T_0516.pdf

I have a hunch that if you adjust for competency, then the wages are probably closer than what the BLS averages would indicate. But you have so many varied jobs mixed into the numbers for auto repair (tire changers and lube techs for $8 an hour) that it drags the average down. You don't really have the equivalent in computer programming, as at the lower levels it's in another category (data entry?). But it is likely that you'll make more (and be much more comfortable) doing a computer programming job versus mechanic.

Cars have been moving towards modularization lately. Instead of replacing the CV joint, you just replace the entire axle (no user serviceable components inside). So auto repair has been concentrated at the factory where they assemble modules and the technicians are just swapping those out rather than rebuilding. Computers started going this route also, especially laptops and cellphones. It's cheaper just to swap the entire thing than repair it.

On the software side, maybe we'll see something like this develop. Maybe programming languages will evolve to where you just add preexisting components together (what do you call them in programming? Objects?). Kind of like Wordpress today versus HTML 20 years ago. If so I would expect the wages to fall.
Are you referring to libraries/plugins? It's the same thing I was talking about earlier. Copy and paste templates have enabled users to develop web sites. Not as easy to do with traditional software or application oriented software that's process specific vs. say, a forum or a web site with a few pages such as About Us, Contact Us, etc.

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 2791
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanic

Post by Sclass »

Sooo, aren't IT people a bunch of mechanics already? ;)

There is so much variability out there from the IT guy who adds toner to my printer and checks my malware update or the friend of friend who writes video compression algorithms for Netflix. The salary difference is 10x. I take it you guys are referring to "software engineers ".

It's like comparing a guy who interprets electronic diagnostics on modern cars with the guy who changes oil. They are completely different animals.

If you're worried about where you will fit into the picture in the future, I'd worry about what you bring to the table in terms of complex intellectual content. For example I'd rather be the guy coding the machine learning filters on the Google Self Drive Car rather than the guy working on the dash display interface. If I am working on the display I will be learning machine intelligence stuff on the weekends. Just an example.

Math and implementation always seemed to be the differentiator in the past. After spending years doing digital signal processing, math kept the wannabes who could only write a function call off my heels. Is it the same today? Maybe "hard" works just as well.

Wait...that's not enough. Being rare can get you backed into a corner. Ohhh the fine art of selling yourself. Fun.

I remember being on a team where the programmers where good at coding but had no idea how to implement a complex mathematical algorithm and optimize it to our proprietary processing architecture. They kept demanding a "library" when it was their job to create the described routines.

Don't be the oil changer. And don't lull yourself thinking you're paid a lot. Jet engine mechanics working for Pan Am were paid a lot. You're under compensated by design unless you've tricked some dumb investor to give you money for nothing. Plan for a future where you'll no longer be cute in the tech brothel of mental prostitution. Nothing is forever except the engineering fools game - from the pyramids to the present the engineer always gets the short end of the stick.

If you weren't such a coward maybe you could be the daredevil who owns your job.

Wait, didn't the pharaoh kill the engineer? :lol:

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 2791
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by Sclass »

forgive me for my last post Simplelife, I am suffering from bitter old man lately.

Here are some thoughts about being a mechanics. I have a unique perspective because I am a hobbyist mechanic and I've spent time around the auto industry developing electronic diagnostic tools for cars.

I tell my father who takes a lot of pride in the degrees I collected, that he should have let me go to L.A. Trade Tech in Los Angeles. I wanted to be a mechanic. I argue that I would not be stuck in a bay working for hourly wages under a car doing lube jobs. Given my personality I'd own a garage or more and hire a bunch of hourly mechanics while I use a combination of sweet talk and fear to separate nice well compensated IT professionals from their hard earned overtaxed money. I'll even provide wifi and cable in my air conditioned waiting room. And I've told dad that I'd be just as rich as I am now. Why? Because my dopey yet daring pals I grew up with who didn't go to school started service businesses and cleaned up.

I know a lot of rich blue collar businessmen. I kind of gravitate toward them maybe because I'm of the same makeup. It is not a bad life when you own your own shop and make your own rules and sell other mechanics' hours. If you do it well you will get rich. But, be warned, my friends who do this well blow their money on six figure dune bugs, house boats, vacation cabins, booze, weed, strippers and divorces. They cannot invest if their lives depend on it unless you count opening more garages investing.

Smart guys don't stay under a car working for a smart garage operator for long. It's just too easy to get out and build your own customer base.

Going the grad school to tech to business route was really hard. I took a lot of boring classes. Hung out with some really boring or odd people for decades. (incidentally those graduates look pretty pathetic financially today) Worked really hard at learning a bunch of stuff I got paid to do but didn't like.

After sitting in my friend's auto shop and watching him fleece Audi driving clients (super scared look on their face as he slides the bill to them) who pay using two credit cards I realized maybe just maybe I had gone the wrong way. Funny, now that I'm retired I spend more time in my friends' shops than I do with the tech crowd. We sit there laughing about how dumb the customers are after they leave. I cannot believe the services they get sold on. Then one comes in to pick up and we all get serious again with my face still from LMAO a minute before. Like everywhere else the weak and their money are easily separated. My pals are wolves. I'd never take my car to them.

My advice to you specifically is what it has always been. Keep cranking out as much money as you are. Stay on track with your investments. Watch you health issues closely. Then make an ERE break when the time is right.

tonyedgecombe
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:11 pm
Location: Oxford, UK Walkscore: 3

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by tonyedgecombe »

JL13 wrote:On the software side, maybe we'll see something like this develop. Maybe programming languages will evolve to where you just add preexisting components together (what do you call them in programming? Objects?). Kind of like Wordpress today versus HTML 20 years ago. If so I would expect the wages to fall.
I've worked with some software that presented an easy to use graphical interface for building applications. Although it was a powerful tool in the right hands, it could never make up for the lack of ability to decompose a requirement to its constituent parts. Most of my customers can't even express their own requirements, let alone start plugging them together to make a solution.

KevinW
Posts: 959
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:45 am

Re: Will IT workers eventually become like mechanics?

Post by KevinW »

@Sclass nailed it, but I'll add my two cents.

"Mechanic" covers a wide range of job titles requiring different levels of technical competency, from quick lube and tire change jockeys that only know how to operate quick lube and tire change machines, up to luxury car diagnostic technicians that need to understand the theory, practice, and interrelationships between ICE engines, electric motors, AC circuits, DC circuits, hydraulics, air conditioning, computers, wired computer networks, radio networks, radar, emissions controls, etcetera. Likewise "IT" comprises everything from construction workers that lay ethernet cables up to the scientists and engineers creating new technologies like smartphones and self-driving cars.

Both industries are following a long-term secular trend toward consolidation, modularity, and automation. As noted, it is cheaper, and also faster, cleaner, and safer (at least in the shop) to replace an engine, transmission, or axle as an assembly, than it is to disassemble and rebuild them. Often it's even cheaper to replace the entire vehicle. Rather than have thousands of shops throughout the world doing highly technical rebuilds, the industry has switched to having a handful of (re)manufacturing factories that work at volume, and the shops of the world swap these modular mass-produced parts. It's a consequence of globalization, cheap shipping, expensive education, and expensive labor.

IT is following the same trend, too. In the 1980s there were dozens of incompatible software and hardware platforms, and everything needed a lot of technical on-site maintenance. Remember defrag, adapter cables, Windows/Mac/mainframe compatibility problems, viruses, backups, etc.? Hardware is converging on sealed solid-state devices with no mechanical or serviceable parts. Software is converging on only a handful of operating systems, and everything interoperates through the same internet and cloud. Setting up an office used to involve paying a consultant to select a server, PCs, and custom network, then a team of technicians to install and configure everything. Now it's easy for a consumer to order a bunch of stuff from Apple or Dell, have it drop-shipped, and set it up themselves. Because a lot of effort went into making everything modular and easy to set up.

I think it's pretty clear that the job prospects are poor for low-skill workers in both fields. They are being replaced by centralized engineering and cheap and deep supply chains. The people that implement the centralization will have plenty of work to do, at least for another decade or two.

Post Reply