"The opposite of poverty is justice"

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

@ thisdinosaur, did you actually read the article you linked?
To approximate a number that has long been considered unknowable, the authors studied the subset of prisoners who, if wrongfully convicted, are most likely to be exonerated: those facing the threat of execution. Because the justice system goes to lengths not to execute innocent people, the cases of prisoners on death row receive far more scrutiny and go through many more appeals processes, raising the likelihood that any flaws in their convictions are found.

"The result is an exoneration rate that is far, far higher than for other [types of] cases, hundreds of times higher than for felons in general," Gross explained. "That means that it might be possible to use that very high exoneration rate as a good measure of the underlying rate of innocence, because it might come close to discovering all the cases that are there."

The study required some inventive math, however, because the highest predictor of being exonerated is not merely being sentenced to death but being currently under the threat of death. Many people sentenced to death ultimately have their sentences reduced to life in prison, at which point the criminal justice system stops focusing on their cases and their chances of being exonerated drops dramatically.

In order to find the innocence rate, the study had to determine the probability that someone sentenced to death would be exonerated if he or she remained under the threat of execution indefinitely. So Gross and O'Brien teamed up with biostatistician Chen Hu from the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine and applied "survival analysis," a technique generally used in medicine, to find the likelihood that someone on death row is innocent.
The error rate of supposition times extrapolation times wishful thinking exceeds the result. This field is full of the most persuasive and motivated lawyers on the planet. Doubt everything.

Edit: I should flesh this out. Capital crimes have more lawyers on both sides, fighting diligently. The innocence project is just one of dozens of anti capital offence organizations out there. They do good work, as I said, I'm not a fan of the death penalty. But, they tend, like all True Believers, to want to convince, more than they want to educate. We really don't execute many people. 20 people last year. That's less than 40% of the deaths caused by lightning. If I were to get worked up about innocent people killed in our justice system, I expect more are killed by prison population, than by prison guards. If I were to get worked up about state caused deaths, I would focus on keeping our soldiers at home. It's not that I am not concerned by the death penalty, but that it is a relatively small concern, for me.

My solution isn't very original, brute already brought it up. Saving prison for criminals, rather than filling them with unlicensed merchants just seems reasonable.
Last edited by Riggerjack on Tue May 23, 2017 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

A friend of mine worked for the Innocence Initiative. (They represent death row inmates when DNA evidence proves they are likely innocent.) He has several stories about clearly bogus convictions that were extremely difficult to overturn because the prosecutor in the case went on to build a political or judicial career on their fame from said conviction.
So, you have a buddy who is a True Believer. And he works with other True Believers. And when his faith exceeds the evidence, it is the fault of the opposition? :roll:

To be clear, we execute people entirely innocent of the crime they are convicted. I'm sure we execute people innocent of any crime (you saw the distinction?). It is just part and parcel of the system we have. I don't feel any guilt over that. I didn't design the system,and nobody is asking me to fix it.

I would prefer that we stopped execcuting people,but on my list of injustices in America, this is pretty low on my list.

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

How is it not accurate to say that the Civil War was fought over States' rights to legalized slavery?

I went from liberal to libertarian. Now I can know the solution, and also never see the harsh results of the test of time.

I'm also a former liberal, mid-transition into libertarianism. But I'm not of the opinion that libertarianism has all the answers. Sometimes the free market is the best solution and sometimes it isn't. Chad and IlliniDave had a good 'toolbox' analogy for this in the Obamacare thread.
The civil war would completely derail this thread, but I'm happy for take this up in another.

Keep going down the libertarian rabbit hole. It's worth the trip. I'll see you on the other side. For what it's worth, I'm aware that the libertarian solutions often are not ideal. However, most problems people want to regulate/legislate away, are the results of that same solution. You can't fix a problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

Riggerjack wrote:
Mon May 22, 2017 4:51 pm
@ thisdinosaur, did you actually read the article you linked?
Yes.
Riggerjack wrote:
Mon May 22, 2017 5:07 pm
So, you have a buddy who is a True Believer. And he works with other True Believers. And when his faith exceeds the evidence, it is the fault of the opposition?
No doubt my friend is a True Believer. I also think he's right that the courts are a human built thing full of human flaws. Its why im not optimistic we'll ever get the Enlightenment-based, philosophers-ideal justice system I would prefer. The death penalty is inefficient, doesnt work as a deterent, is disproportionately applied to the poor, and at least occasionally results in the state offing the wrong person. What about it are you defending?

BRUTE
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by BRUTE »

he's not defending the death penalty. he's saying that it's not on his top 10 list of problems in this country. brute agrees.

executing innocent humans is a tragedy. so are life long prison sentences for innocents. 60 years innocent in prison cannot be undone, just as the death penalty cannot be undone.

brute is against prison in general, except for actual literal maniacs. even then, psych wards would probably be better. prisons make prisoners outcasts, reduce their chances of ever integrating into society, treat them inhumanely, cost taxpayers a ton of money. prisons do nothing to undo the crimes committed, they do not prevent future crimes, they do not make whole victims.

brute is also against private prisons. because private institutions are more efficient at producing goods than government institutions. goods, and bads. prison is a net harm to society, and should therefore be as inefficient as possible, hence, government run. of course, brute would prefer prisons be completely abolished.

the #1 action item against "structural racism" in the US is removing the drug prohibition. if that's not what liberal humans are talking about, he's not interested in their feel-good activism.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

@scriptbunny
I used to be one of those people who thought we were approaching an inevitable post racism society. I was oblivious. Makes me wonder what ideas I have now that I'll totally change my mind about.

And for-profit prisons are an excellent example of why free market solutions are sometimes a terrible idea.

Reparations, though, are a sure way to perpetuate interracial tensions for at least another generation. If we are for equality, we should ensure equality of opportunity. We shouldn't try to Harrison Bergeron ourselves into "fairness."

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

Agree with everything brute said after that first paragraph. The state executing citizens is a problem worth adressing. I havent made a list, but that might be on it if i did.

BRUTE
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by BRUTE »

ThisDinosaur wrote:
Mon May 22, 2017 10:39 pm
Agree with everything brute said after that first paragraph. The state executing citizens is a problem worth adressing. I havent made a list, but that might be on it if i did.
the state executing citizens is a problem worth addressing in a vacuum. according to Wikipedia, the US has in its history never executed more than 200 humans per year since 1600, and never more than 100 per year since the 1960s. recently, it's been in the 40-50 humans per year range. if 100% of those are presumed innocence, this still pales in comparison to many other issues brute has with the government. 50 human deaths is not even a Friday night in Chicago. how many humans die because of lack of medical care in prison? how many humans are shot every year by the police? how many humans die because their marginal tax rate prevented them from attaining life-saving medical care? how many humans die every year because the FDA would not allow them to seek "experimental" or "dangerous" treatment? how many humans get killed each year as collateral damage in military operations?

while it sounds super reasonable and bipartisan to state things like "libertarianism doesn't have all the solutions" and "toolbox bla bla bla", the fact is, in most of these "race related" issues, libertarianism DOES HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS. the drug war CLEARLY is racist and has caused blacks to suffer as a class.

leading up to 2008, brute really was HOPEful that finally, there was a liberal politician willing to use liberty for good. but even though this politician apparently smoked dope like nobody's business in college himself, he never took any action to solve the biggest issue regarding the systemic discrimination of black humans in this country. in 8 years, he did fucking nothing about the #1 issue. instead, he focused on BS issues like ACA, .. and, what else again?

thus, brute has completely run out of patience for liberals. libertarianism has the #1 answer to systemic racism. liberals can wake brute up when they're ready to legalize all drugs. until then, brute is going to jerk off and play video games, because at least then he's got something to show for his efforts.

BRUTE
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by BRUTE »

brute's list:
1.end war on drugs
2.un-fuck or completely stop all foreign military engagements
3.decriminalization of all victimless crimes (see also: prostitution)
4.dissolve public school system: it had its chance, it failed. at this point, it's just Stockholm syndrome.
5."proof of benefit or sunset" regulation: all federal or state programs have to prove their worth annually or be shut down. not worth compared to nothing, but compared to market solutions. yes, the proof is on the government solution - if the threat of the government is involved, there better be a really good reason to prevent humans from exercising their free choice.
6.aggressively reduce prison population. humans should only be imprisoned if it can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt that this is the best way for society to handle their individual case, i.e. if they are about to commit violent crimes any second. all other humans can work off their debt or be placed under house arrest or whatever. actually strike #6, this is #3 or 4. also, clemency for all humans currently imprisoned for victimless crimes, and monitored release of all humans who do not currently pose a violent threat.
7.dissolve borders, all humans who are determined to make it in, make it in anyways. cost outweighs benefits by far.
8.maybe death penalty

oh there, it made it. brute is a bleeding heart libertarian after all.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

I dont think i know any liberals who are against decriminalization of drugs. I cant think of any conservatives i know who are against it at this point either. This is strictly a problem with the politicians, not their constituents. The politicians represent the people who fund their campaigns. This was Bernie's main issue at the start of his presidential run. Meanwhile, Republicans support Citizens United. Plus, they have Jeff Sessions.

And brute's #6 sounds pretty far left to me.

James_0011
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by James_0011 »

@ThisDinosaur sounds like you don't know any real conservatives. There are plenty of people against ending the drug war, I really don't think it's just an issue with politicians.

IlliniDave
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by IlliniDave »

James_0011 wrote:
Tue May 23, 2017 5:49 am
@ThisDinosaur sounds like you don't know any real conservatives. There are plenty of people against ending the drug war, I really don't think it's just an issue with politicians.
Yeah, there are a lot of people who are all for personal freedom, except when it comes to other people doing things they don't want other people to do. People who think the FDA and ATF are catastrophic federal overreach but at the same time love the DEA.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

@James
I'm sure there are real people with that opinion. I just think its more common among politicians than the voters. I base this only on the people that I know. My coworkers are mostly republicans; a number of vocal trump supporters as well as some evangelicals and small-government types who tolerate him. Even the ones who think drugs are immoral don't seem to think they should be illegal. My dad is a media stereotype of a Trump voter (blue collar Midwesterner distrustful of minorities, esp. immigrants) and he wants legal medicinal pot for his knee pain. I know some people who work for the democratic party (as in, they are the people who help decide who the party endorses in local races) and they are for decriminalization as well.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by ThisDinosaur »

brute makes a good point that some problems are more important based on the degree and number of people affected. Going back to scriptbunny's OP, I would say most of the items on that list should be pretty low in priority with the exception of these:

- Punitive justice versus rehabilitative justice
- The effect of intergenerational trauma, unresolved, in black communities

A justice system that rehabs violent offenders (assuming possible) and releases them to be productive members of society, is better than the alternatives for all involved (except the victims and families who want revenge.)

There is no question that history has an impact on where everyone starts out in life. I submit there is no way to fix that without making things worse. However, it is conceivable that you can level the playing field by, as much as possible, building a meritocracy into the existing system. This may require standardizing schools, so that rich and poor kids get identical quality educations. (In finland, its illegal to open a school and charge tuition. Result: rich parents are incentivized to make sure public schools are of high quality.)

IlliniDave
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by IlliniDave »

ThisDinosaur wrote:
Tue May 23, 2017 7:48 am

A justice system that rehabs violent offenders (assuming possible) and releases them to be productive members of society, is better than the alternatives for all involved (except the victims and families who want revenge.)
It's more than just the justice system. Once a record exists, even for nonviolent offenders, it is permanent (even if expunged, it will still be in the data system of all the background check providers out there). Such a record closes so many doors that at best a person could achieve only marginal reintegration.

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

I know some people who work for the democratic party (as in, they are the people who help decide who the party endorses in local races) and they are for decriminalization as well.
Then you are wasting your time here. There is only one issue liberals should have on their minds. Removing the top third of the DNC. I haven't heard about a purge, so I assume they will be as ineffective at running their party as they are at the rest. If you can't fix your party, why would anyone trust you to fix anything else?

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

I too was disappointed, in that what he said was not what he did, or had done.

But... Sometimes he who governs least...

Obama was CIC when States started legalizing marijuana. Keeping Federal forces out of that helped.

While giving a nice speech about changes he would force the BATFE to make in background checks, the BATFE changed long standing policies restricting silencers, making them easier to get for law abiding citizens, and bringing poliicy closer to Constitutional compliance.

Give credit where it's due. If you thought he would do as he said, or if you just listened to the speaches, I could see being disappointed. But when you look at what actually happened in his term, I think he was the best since Reagan. And even Reagan the President wasn't Reagan, as we remember him...

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

Ta-Nehisi Coates of The Atlantic made the case for reparations. Can we track down the black vets, those of WW2, the Korean War, of Vietnam that were unable to use their GI benefits for college and housing due to segregation and redlining and give them and their descendants that free tuition, that heavily subsidized first home? Can we actually attempt creating school busing and desegregation programs that work across entire metro regions and include the wealthy white suburbs? I don't think our society has the stomach for these things, but it's the scale we should consider if ever we do.
I have a lot to say about this, but I'm not done reading your links. I will be back after.

But, scriptbunny, I'm going to ask a few questions, don't answer if you aren't comfortable.

I think you are young, black, female, and in Boston. Did you grow up there? Do you vote? Which party, and why?

When you speak of reparations, who do you think should pay them, and how? Specifically, who would get them, and how would you divide those who get reparations, and who wouldn't? Do you believe your government is capable of righting this, or will this be just another grievance in 15-20 years?

I'll check back, looking for your reply.

James_0011
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by James_0011 »

@ffj

How do marriage and children solve any problems?

Also, yes what you're saying is overly simplified, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transgenerational_trauma
Last edited by James_0011 on Tue May 23, 2017 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

Riggerjack
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Re: "The opposite of poverty is justice"

Post by Riggerjack »

Secondly we need to stop the condescension and treat the afflicted as adults that are capable of making adult decisions. Why is the drug policy racist? It's implied that blacks are incapable of not doing drugs, so we have to protect them.
Uh, no. Drug policy is racist because the vast majority of prosecutions are black. White kids buy drugs, get caught, do community service. Black kids sell drugs, without licenses, and then go to jail.

I'm not sure I buy that, but that is the racial argument. If you want to argue against it, I'm good with that.

Also, you grew up in rural Kentucky, got a good paying job working with the fire department. Then retired early. Recently, I have come to hate the word " privilege", but that is a world away from the community scriptbunny is talking about.
First of all, if anybody wants to fix any particular groups problems, that solution needs to come from within the affected group. Others can make it easier , just like this site, to provide information and resources, but ultimately it is the responsibility of the affected person to bring about change. And we need to understand that a lot of people are comfortable in their station in life, even though it would not be palatable to us.
Yup.

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