Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

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jacob
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Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by jacob »

If you could magically obtain a good overview of the world from the three dates in the future of your choosing, which would you pick?

You're allowed to sample anything you want except a history book or some other transparent strategy (stock quotes) to break the fun of this exercise. So you could have newspapers, pictures, art, restaurant menus, a shopping trip, a day at work, a typical home, or even a typical tax return... You could pick dates evenly spaced out within your lifespan... or you could pick dates tens of thousands of years in the future to see where humans are going or not going. Or maybe you'd rather not know?

What do you want and when do you want it? You get three dates!

7Wannabe5
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Take One

1/1/2500- Copy of the most critically acclaimed novel of the 25th century in the English language.

7/4/2076- Photographs of all my living descendants.

5/10/2032- Results of my yearly physical exam and lab work.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

2050 AD, 2100 AD, 2150 AD.

To see if we actually live to the next century and where we go. I probably use a day at work or a pitcher of hot tea and a TV with the most reliable news source at the time.

SErickson
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by SErickson »

First post! But I thought this might be a good place to start.

Been lurking for a bit, and just thought that this question might help me get to the core of what I am hoping to accomplish in life. Perhaps the lack of articulation might give me some insight on the type of questions I need to answer for myself. I don't know. But here it goes.

I think that a day at home on a holiday would be preferable. Say Christmas 5 years from now, 15 years from now, and 30 years from now.

Just to see where I am. Where I am living, and the type of close relationships I have cultivated in my life at those points. I think that something like that would be a good litmus test for success. My living arrangement might give insight into stability (if the home is changing), or growth/failure (if the home is changing).

Who is around me would hopefully allow me insight into the people I should or should not surround myself with in the here and now. And if I can't change the future, even by viewing it, this might give an insight as to my happiness.

I know that statistically, that is the most stressful time of year, so I might also get to see myself at a particularly low moment. And with the breath of decades of change, I might be able to gain insight as to how to escape the bleak trials that life can throw your way.

Hope that I did that right!

Toska2
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by Toska2 »

Curiosity of one's self* , one's home country, the human race or the world in general. Which one wins determines the timeline.

*barring any "Back to the Future" possibilities

Absolute Dates
2067 Scientific American or better magazine
2525 A day of leisure.
3500 7 wonders of the world (did we build more pyramids, spaceships, Trump Tower of Babel?)


Events that don't have a specific date

Successful overthrow of a first world nation, bloody or not. In a house on the losing side.

Fifty years after petroleum becomes too expensive for 95% of the world's population. Agricultural production in large metropolitan city.

Five years after an electromagnetic storm knocks out most satellites (and more). The average house and it's inhabitants.

simplex
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by simplex »

Somehow this reminds me of http://phpir.com/expecting-the-unexpected
The mentioned Good-Turing estimator is quite fun and can be quite misleading.

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fiby41
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Re: Gedanken experiment: Knowing the future

Post by fiby41 »

A day in the life of a person part of a settlement on moon or another planet 2250.

2100 these documents:

Agreement of settlement of all Indo-Pak wars after the '99 Kargil War.
Changes in the Indus Water Treaty if any.
Draft of that article when Uniform Civil Code was implemented in the Constitution.*
Angus Madison report 22nd century to find out if India's percentage of world income climbed back to its 18th century level.

* (UCC aims to brings all citizens under a uniform law. Presently Muslims in India have separate religious laws, some perks of which include polygamy and being able to dump a wife at a whim... because Sharia (law in Quran) says so. Muh secularism.)

2038

Find out if I'm fiby41 or not. How'll I find this out? Investment acount statement, tax return or am I allowed to be invisible and hover over my future self/alter ego?

If I find out I'm not going to FI anyway, doesn't it make more sense to do the next thing with the highest marginal utility to me? Like plan to assassinate someone..
Or will this create a feedback loop where present input is influenced by future output?

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