Local Climate Change

Should you squeeze the toothpaste tube in the middle or from the end?
Post Reply
George the original one
Posts: 4136
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Local Climate Change

Post by George the original one » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:15 pm

Climate is definitely changing locally, noticeably so in Portland, Oregon. Failing to plan around the change is a mistake, whether you believe it is manmade or not.

For instance, it doesn't snow like it used to. Regular annual snowfall is a thing of the past, with El Nino influencing whether there will be any snow at all, with one winter often accounting for the bulk of the snow in a decade. For the 2000s, the winter of 2008-2009 dropped 24", over half the decade's snowfall. The 2010s have put 5 winters into the books and the decade only has 14" snowfall so far; it will take twice that in the next 5 years to equal the 2000s snowfall.
Image

Summers are significantly hotter than they used to be. Portland's past was marked with a mild summer climate, with very few hot days where the thermometer got above 90F. So far in the 2010s, 90 days (more than the 1960s!) have been racked up and the climate is on target to hit 150 days. If you want to move to Portland for the climate, be aware that the "Portland summers are mild with an average of 11 days over 90F" is not valid today.
Image

George the original one
Posts: 4136
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by George the original one » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:38 pm

More severe weather linked to climate change? Let's look at tornadoes hitting Oregon by decade:

1950s 4
1960s 12
1970s 9
1980s 9
1990s 31
2000s 30

halfmoon
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:19 pm

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by halfmoon » Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:15 am

@Georgetoo,

Can you tell me how to find these statistics for Seattle? Did they hatch in graph mode, or did you have to turn them into graphs by some sort of magic? For some reason, I normally have extreme difficulty "seeing" graphs, but these were clear to me. I'm really interested to see how the Seattle/Western WA snowfall and summer temperature changes would track.

It was shocking to see the number of 90+ degree days in Portland. I wonder if this correlates at all with potential solar energy production. We have Portland friends who have covered their entire roof with solar panels and ordered a Tesla, and I need to know whether to envy or mock them. :D

steveo73
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by steveo73 » Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:30 am

Lord help us ! The climate is changing.

User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 5117
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by jennypenny » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:13 am

It's funny how the little things can sometimes reveal a lot. I grew up on a lake. It used to freeze for at least a month or two every winter, long enough to spray paint a hockey rink and secure the nets so we could play after school every day. One year it was frozen for several months ('76-'77). The winter of '80-'81 was the last good year. By the time my youngest brother moved out it almost never froze for more than a couple of days in a row.

This is the lake now. The town is working on a dam hoping it will fill back up with some help.

Image

User avatar
Sclass
Posts: 1045
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by Sclass » Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:25 am

Aww man this is a bummer when the climate change hits close to home.

The tide pools in South Orange County between Emerald Bay and Newport are dying. I've been playing out there since I was a kid and the dieoff during the last two years is dramatic. Sea anemones gone. Urchins gone. Starfish gone. Snails gone. Clams gone. Crabs gone. Sea slugs gone. Seals are done too. They came up on the beach starving last summer and ended up in a lot of beachfront homes scavenging. No more. No need to call marine rescue, they're gone. Lots of empty shells.

I love when I hear bleach white tourists say "oh honey look at all the perfect shells on the beach, it's wonderful". Yup, big unbroken mollusk shells just started washing up one year. Before it was pure luck to find one that wasn't cracked. Now the beach is a combing paradise. Wonderful!

And the fisherman are gone...unless they're dumb or not there to catch fish.

And we had some new stuff show up. It was ankle deep in red "Tuna Shrimp" for a week. Apparently they came up from Baja and died. People found a few yellow bellied sea snakes which was super rare.

I've been watching this particular stretch of beach long enough to notice he change. It's like somebody dumped toxic waste in there. Oh wait, TEPCO did just that.

User avatar
Gilberto de Piento
Posts: 815
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:16 pm

The date of ice forming and ice leaving the lakes where I live has been tracked for 150 years. The trend is for a later start date and earlier end date. In 50-100 years it won't freeze at all.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 2447
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:06 am

I can't come up with as vivid of an example based on my personal experiences in my region. The weather has always been highly variable in south-east Michigan. It is my perception that the variability has now increased to the level that you can pretty much count on not needing to wear your snow pants in August, but that's about it. The first year I ventured into gardening was 1988, and there were a record number of days over 100 that summer, so that colors my perception somewhat in the other direction, because I am forever expecting all my seedlings to perish due to scorching heat. Unfortunately, it is difficult to point to any sort of obvious pattern with just cursory skim over historical weather data for my region.

My region is also somewhat unique due to the fact that there has been greatly increased population in some areas and greatly decreased population in other areas. So, much of what was countryside in my childhood is now strip-malls, and much of what was once vibrant urban center is now nothing but abandoned rusting or rotting structures, weeds and scrub-trees. Air-conditioning was not yet omni-present in the 1960s/70s, so I can clearly remember being stuck to a vinyl car seat in the glaring heat, driving into the cement jungle of Detroit, while listening to "Summer in the City" by the Lovin' Spoonful playing on the radio.

George the original one
Posts: 4136
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by George the original one » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:46 pm

Everyone living in the Portland area today knows that increased elevations will get you more snow. The top of the West Hills never goes without snow while the tops of Mt. Tabor and Kelly Butte are limited to only dustings. To get a consistent 2" or more, you need to be around 1000ft elevation.

2" or more snowfall at the rivers was the case in the 1900s, 1910s, & 1920s. Which means that climate change for Portland has had the same effect as if Portland were lowered by 1000ft over the past century!

User avatar
Riggerjack
Posts: 1480
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by Riggerjack » Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:45 pm

@GTOO

Those charts looked so dramatic, I thought they had to be faked. I mean, 40 inches of snow in portland in just one winter? Hipsters would be EATING each other.

Then I realized that they aren't average per year, but total over a decade. That seems like a good way to show the slow changes.

Where did your data come from?

George the original one
Posts: 4136
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by George the original one » Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:59 pm


George the original one
Posts: 4136
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Local Climate Change

Post by George the original one » Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:29 pm

We just exited La Nina into a neutral condition. That is one of the shortest periods (if not the shortest) spent in La Nina and extremely unusual after the strong El Nino that enhanced heat waves across the USA for the past 2 summers. Forecasts do not yet indicate moving into another El Nino this year, but it is an ugly possibility.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

Post Reply