The Trump Problem (the real one)

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

I have been suggesting the "brain drain" theory for awhile and have seen it played out in my hometown. So, while that is the reason, I'm not sure it provides a solution.

Putting those brains back would be the obvious solution. However, the only way I see that happening is an economy that doesn't require most workers to be physically located in a specific spot. This then gives the brains the choice. (The other option would be ERE, but that's not happening.)

Though, I don't think the choice makes much of a difference, as I doubt they would go back. Why would they? Who is going back to rural Pennsylvania when you could live in Tahoe, Florida Keys, Hawaii, Austin, etc.

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

@jacob, Are we going back to Plato's cave again? :lol:

Having grown up in a city in Iowa and still being in contact with people there, this has been my experience as well. And the ones that stayed there also seem to be the ones with the worst health habits -- smoking, drinking, obesity. I'm beginning to watch some of them just drop dead now of heart failure and other lifestyle maladies. The ones that got out went to places like Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Denver and even Madison, Wisconsin. Or further afield in my case and a few others. And they are doing fine socioeconomically for the most part.

Meanwhile the governor of Iowa just told his constituents that one of his biggest worries is ISIS coming to Iowa. Yeah, right. Echo chamber effect indeed. Many if not most Americans confuse Iowa with Ohio and Idaho. Most people outside the US don't know of it and really don't care about anything remotely near it.

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

Chad wrote:I have been suggesting the "brain drain" theory for awhile and have seen it played out in my hometown. So, while that is the reason, I'm not sure it provides a solution.

Putting those brains back would be the obvious solution. However, the only way I see that happening is an economy that doesn't require most workers to be physically located in a specific spot. This then gives the brains the choice. (The other option would be ERE, but that's not happening.)

Though, I don't think the choice makes much of a difference, as I doubt they would go back. Why would they? Who is going back to rural Pennsylvania when you could live in Tahoe, Florida Keys, Hawaii, Austin, etc.
I agree that there aren't any pat solutions. We can provide them with welfare, which a lot of them are getting anyway through social security disability but that's a horrible and expensive program that just locks people into never working again. I'd rather just pay them outright or use a negative income tax if we are going to do that. I'd almost prefer to bribe people with a "moving to a more productive area" bonus. Like if you take a job in another state than pays more than your current position (or non-position), you don't have to pay taxes for a year. (Yes, you'd have to put restrictions on it so people couldn't game it by moving every year, but you get the idea.)

The problem I see is that the political incentives are all wrong. No elected official is going to campaign on the idea that people need to leave their state. Instead they always campaign on the idea that they are somehow going to create or attract jobs with legislative policies. Usually it doesn't work (see Kansas as today's failed effort), so what they actually end up doing is essentially bribing companies with tax breaks and other incentives to come to their location. We should be moving the people around with bribes, not the companies.

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Ego
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Ego »

Dragline wrote:Be careful you do not lump "Trump supporters" in this manner, as most people who support Trump simply do so because they dislike Clinton.
I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that the Trump supporters who continue to stick it out do so for one thing, supreme court nominees. Those who simply hate Clinton bailed long ago when they realized the level of hatefulness between the two is staggering.

I believe the persistent Trumpers represent two overlapping camps, guns and abortion. Look around you. Who are the gun rights and anti-abortion folks? Are they young people or old? Do their philosophies represent the future or the past?

Rather than simply shove them aside, we should parse the good parts of their philosophies (yes, there are good parts) from the bad and reconstitute them into something useful. That's what autophagy does in the cell, recycling the useful material and combine it with other recyclables into something good.

Respect for life is undoubtedly good if combined with sane encouragement of birth-control and no encroachment on women's rights. Legal, safe gun ownership is good if we keep guns out of the hands of the crazy and the criminal.

Today the entrenched Trumpers want all or nothing. In the same way they refuse to move from their hometown, they refuse to budge on their policy positions. In the same way they commit self-harm by staying put in dying towns, they are willing to commit societal self-harm by electing this lunatic if they don't get what they want.

Maybe social autophagy is the solution. Remind me again, how do we induce autophagy?

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

"Life as Autophagy" -- by Ego. Available on fine internet message forums near you.

The answer to that question would be "fasting". But I think you were asking it rhetorically.

IlliniDave
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by IlliniDave »

Dragline wrote:Many if not most Americans confuse Iowa with Ohio and Idaho.
That made me laugh and reminds me of my first cube-mate when I started work in Boston after graduating. His name was Ken. He'd been with the company a little longer and was a nice guy and would on occasion introduce me to other coworkers of an appropriate age for a new college hire to socialize with. It would go like this.

Ken: Hey everyone, this is Dave. He's from, what is it? Iowa?
Dave: No ...
Ken: Indiana?
Dave: No, it's ...
Ken: #^ck it, who cares. It's one of those states out west that starts with an "I".

7Wannabe5
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Dragline said: In the modern context, this includes virtually every kind of population you can think of that attaches an inordinate value to the speck of land they are living on or town they grew up in -- whatever keeps them rooted. This includes some of the Trump supporters, some Native Americans, some urban populations and many impoverished communities in just about any country you can think of. IMO, this is why immigrants or migrants in any society are generally more successful on average than the natives -- they don't suffer from this kind of limiting nostalgia that has them looking backwards for answers or looking for scapegoats to blame, instead of looking forward or to their own capabilities or opportunities.
Yup. Of course, this also obviously applies to the way some people try to stick it out through bad times in their marriages or failure of faith in their religion. Like they are too stupid to understand sunk-cost fallacy or S-curves.

jacob
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jacob »

In terms of solutions, I think it's most effective to engage at the function one is currently at or those which are very close. Leave the political strategies to politicians or people who have politicians' ears. If you're a teacher or active in the PTA, get more children educated in a way that solves the problem. If you're a writer, ...

If you're a regular person with no special situation people connections, take a starfish approach. It seems common at family gatherings or visits to politely shut up (as the out of town visitor) and just silently endure the local parochial views no matter how uninformed they may be. I did that for a long time until DW said I should speak up lest some of the younger family members get completely and permanently stuck a bubble.

One doesn't have to move back. This can work while visiting. Or on facebook. Or postcards, or whatever.

I've had some success with a strategy of sowing uncertainty in the echo-chamber. The general idea is to avoid debating, but rather introduce a bit of dissonance that challenges their world-view but in a way they still find useful. For example, I'm quite familiar with the "I can't wait until I get my handgun license. I have to talk to a judge first because I got a record. But I need it so I can defend my family against terrorists"-status. This is mostly coming from the young people by the way. In such a case, rather than telling them that the odds that some terrorist is going to show up at their house in Milltown, BFE are infinitesimal I would say something like "Sounds great. Better make sure that it's a real terrorist before you shoot anyone, because unless you got a million witnesses, as soon as someone gets hit, you're probably going to be looking at a minimum of $10,000 in lawyer fees and that's just to get bail and get the process started." My goal here would be first to support the decision, but then to plant the likely previously non-existent idea that shooting at someone comes with a potential shitstorm of legal fallout even if they feel justified(*) in shooting.

(*) I've seen much liked memes justifying "self-defense" while showing pictures of street riots. I'm no legal expert, but I bet if you have a riot going on outside with people smashing up parked cars, you can't go outside and blast away and justify it as self-defense.

Similarly, "My neighborhood is crazy. When I went to [other big scary city], I brought my new gun in my bag, so if I ever come visit you guys, I'll make sure to bring it." Reply: "Oh no. Chicago shootings is almost all gang-related and the gangs keep it within the block more or less. It's not a bunch of meth heads walking into random houses around here. It's all gangs and there aren't any where we live. So please leave the gun at home. Also I think you need a special permit here. It's way more trouble than it's worth." My goal here was to plant the idea that rural gun crime and city gun crime are very different things.

That was all guns. However, it also works on politics or money. "I only make $12 an hour and nobody can live on that". Response ... "I think I calculated from my budget that I spend about $14 per day but of course we own our house." Thus planting the seed that "some people use budgets" + "some people spend very little and yet live well" + "some people actually own houses".

Another example: "I really wanted that [fancy $15000 midsized] car but they wouldn't approve me because of my credit score". Response: "Car loans are a waste a money anyway. The banks totally screw you on the interest. We bought ours in cash. Of course it's an old car, but it was only $5000 and it runs really well after we had a mechanic look it over."

First empathize a bit. Then follow up with some information that creates some uncertainty about their choices or perspective. Then shut up and allow it to germinate.

Of course, sometimes the situation is hopeless e.g. someone throws an "I hate Obama"-tantrum just repeating themselves over and over having essentially nothing else to contribute beyond a primal feeling. It's hard to connect with anything here, so don't. Instead maybe reach them indirectly by talking politics at a slightly higher level with someone else and let them overhear it. There's a lot of value in reaching the "sergeants" or the family heads/trusted perceived experts as well. Trickle-down knowledge. It might require some digging finding out who they are because likely they'll be hiding their knowledge as well, especially if they're the only one around.

Also, there's strength in numbers: Hearing the same message from two people makes it more than twice as loud.

Overall, this "soft-power" approach has been moderately effective in preparing the territory. Baby-steps. But I've seen the beginnings of actual budgets. Spending money on paying down debt instead of buying ammo or car part upgrades. Inquiries about dividends and how one gets them. Plans to save up for house down-payments.

PS: https://www.amazon.com/American-Nations ... 0143122029 has been very helpful in understanding where people are coming from.

BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE »

Ego wrote:In the same way they commit self-harm by staying put in dying towns, they are willing to commit societal self-harm by electing this lunatic if they don't get what they want.
there's always apoptosis

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Ego
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Ego »

A problem has to be defined before it can be solved. I thought this was an interesting (mostly pro-Trump) take on the Trumpers perspective from an unlikely source. The presentation is annoying but his explanation of why Trump is still rising is interesting.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-t ... lks-about/

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jennypenny
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jennypenny »

To those ignored, suffering people, Donald Trump is a brick chucked through the window of the elites. "Are you assholes listening now?"
^^This. The appeal of DJT to many is that he is the biggest brick they could find. (insert joke here)

Anyone listen to Carlin's show this week? He also pointed out that if you don't solve this problem, it won't just go away or resolve itself on its own.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

jennypenny wrote:
Anyone listen to Carlin's show this week? He also pointed out that if you don't solve this problem, it won't just go away or resolve itself on its own.
This is exactly why I asked this question (I didn't listen to Carlin, yet, but I agree with him. It won't go away.). Plus, I don't see a solution. Jacob's solution is very long-term and more of a preventative measure for the next generation than a solution for the current generation.

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jennypenny
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jennypenny »

WaPo article The Most Liberal Universities in America

If lack of education is a key component of the 'Trump Problem', then the lack of balance at top-tier universities that they show in the article is probably a contributing factor. I imagine conservative kids might shy away from attending universities where they don't feel welcome just like any other minority might.

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GandK
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by GandK »

Recent IQ2 debate: Blame the elites for the Trump phenomenon

I found those arguing against the motion to be offensive (elitist) to the point of being part of the problem they were debating about. And utterly unaware of it.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

More of the problem:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/ne ... s-torches/

I'm not sure he even understands what he is suggesting.

jacob
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jacob »

@Chad - http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/p/the-fiv ... lapse.html I fear this model could be applicable insofar one does not see the stages as click-click-click-by-stage but rather takes an approach of seeing citizens as a Gaussian distribution and counting how many people there are in each stage. It's fair to say that this election can be categorized as a potential political collapse---certainly a loss of faith in politics as usual---so the mean falls around stage 3 for now. Your example falls under stage 5 or cultural collapse or the point where respect for other human beings is lost. I have a few others: http://chicagoist.com/2016/10/14/the_second_city.php and http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trum ... -1.2832866 as well as one example from my personal "focus group" who has crossed the WTF level :-( ... but so far they seem to be outliers?

I think the question here, at least in the short term and from a systemic perspective is, how well are the stage 5 group organized. Are we talking independent actors? It seems to me that there's no effective organization at this point. Organized outliers are scary. Independent ones, not so much.

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

I go with the view of such as obnoxious and pathetic wretches. But there will be incidents and arrests. A few people will have convinced themselves that they can "start a revolution" by murdering some innocent people. (Sometimes I really wish Timothy McVeigh would have written an autobiography -- of how that stupid deluded random murder bullshit does not accomplish anything.) And then maybe most people will come to their senses and be shocked by what this really means -- it means you run around killing innocent people who happen to be your neighbors or local law enforcement and then hope and wait for Alex Jones or similar to call you a hero.

The risk of domestic terrorism will be many magnitudes higher in lower-population areas than in well known parts of the US. Which means it will be multiples of close to nothing. But it will seem like its in your living room non-stop 24/7.

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Ego
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Ego »

Family crossed the border today for a picnic. After crossing they stopped at a grocery store 8 miles from the border. In the parking lot a guy noticed the Mexican plates on their new SUV and yelled, "Go back to Mexico!" They've been shopping at that store since the early sixties and have never experienced anything like that before.

Obnoxious and pathetic wretches indeed.

Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad »

@jacob
His categories are a decent way of looking at it. Yeah, I think the extremists, such as the sheriff, the religious war trio from Kansas (of course, it's Kansas), your friend, etc. are more outliers than an organized movement.

It's hard to tell who could join these extremists. Most of the Trump supporters I know are too old, too anti-change, and too privileged to become real extremists. Though, I doubt they actually think they are privileged.

The recent interview done by Vice with Glenn Beck is interesting concerning the extremists, as Beck completely denies having anything to do with building this extremist base.

On a side note, the new 30 minute daily Vice News program is rather good. No anchors and almost no opinion. For instance, they were probably dying to call bullshit on Beck's claim he wasn't part of this, but they didn't even remotely suggest it with the voice over.

@Dragline
Everything seems like it is in your living room non-stop if you watch TV news without context. It's why my relatives can't believe I haven't been killed having lived in major cities for the past twenty years. It's why everyone believes that murders are out of control, when we are really in one of the lowest points in US history.

Also, police officer deaths are near the historical bottom third and, when total population is factored in, the number looks really good historically.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline »

Chad wrote:
@Dragline
Everything seems like it is your living room non-stop if you watch TV news without context. It's why my relatives can't believe I haven't been killed having lived in major cities for the past twenty years. It's why everyone believes that murders are out of control, when we are really in one of the lowest points in US history.

Also, police officer deaths are near the historical bottom third and, when total population is factored in, the number looks really good historically.
Agreed. Most places in the US are the safest they have been in our lifetimes. But people confuse having a lot of access to exciting information about individual incidents in a very large population with what is actually happening in most places most of the time. Which is generally "not much of concern" other than common-place bad habits, addictions and illnesses.

Case in point: Over the weekend I met up with some old friends. No one reported being a victim of crime or terrorist activities in the past year. Or even witnessing such events. There was, however, one heart attack, one instance of prostate cancer and one attack of the shingles. And one of them had acquired a dog due to the suicide of one of his friends. And two had lost and/or changed jobs.

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