The Trump Problem (the real one)

Should you squeeze the toothpaste tube in the middle or from the end?
User avatar
jennypenny
Posts: 5151
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:20 pm
Location: Stepford USA

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jennypenny » Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:55 am

I'm not sure I'd call it multiculturalism is you only interact with cultures with whom you're already comfortable. I don't beat the push-yourself-to-the-point-of-being-uncomfortable drum like Ego does, but I agree with him that it's important.

And to Campitor's point, you have no idea who we all are. Some (many?) may come from cultures that you would avoid IRL, and yet here you are sharing ideas and learning from those same people. Think of what we'd be missing out on if the conversations were limited to like-minded cultures.

This isn't about being old or set in my ways or not agreeing with you (have you read my posts in the other Trump thread??). It's about not being prejudiced. Most of the problems in the US -- even if they are centered around a particular race or culture -- aren't the result of inherent issues within those races or cultures.

ShriekingFeralHatred
Posts: 76
Joined: Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:03 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:18 am

blah
Last edited by ShriekingFeralHatred on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
BRUTE
Posts: 2096
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE » Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:34 pm

to get back to that separatism point. abstractly, brute thinks that drawing a circle of governance and "this is all the same" around too large of a group of humans is the root cause of many problems. small, homogenous states are almost always easier to govern. every policy works in Denmark because it's a handful of happy, rich humans of the same ethnicity.

there's been a reference to a book on here a few times, how culturally, the US could split into a few different areas. PNW, commifornia, The Sprawl on the east coast, and so on.

unity is only good if it's beneficial.

classical_Liberal
Posts: 79
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by classical_Liberal » Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:34 pm

I do not believe separation is a legitimate solution.

While I disagree race is causation for one's class, I cannot disagree that certain races tend to cluster into specific economic classes (note: purposely leaving out the debate as to why). For simplification, imagine four economic classes with roughly the same political and cultural beliefs. These cultures may vary somewhat regionally and may have subsets within the class, but the similarities grossly outweigh differences. I believe the general idea of socio-economic classes is relatively self-explanatory, for brevity I will not specifically define the class separation I have chosen, rather leave it open for debate.

Working poor and/or social program dependant

Undereducated working class

Educated upper middle/ Gentry

Upper class/Capital owners

Obviously there is significant social mobility potential for individuals in the US, but I would argue that the cultural and political beliefs remain relatively constant through a lifetime and only change dramatically with succeeding generations. My working theory is that there is an economic closing between the two lower classes; while the two higher classes remain separated, but both are thriving.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/ec ... dle-class/

This leads to a feeling frustration and loss on the part of the working class and a feeling of plenty in the upper middle class. This is creating the schism we see today. IOW, in past generations the economic and cultural separation between the working class and upper middle class was significantly less. So much so, that they used to agree on most issues, now they do not. Since these classes represent the vast majority of the US population, the appearance of division is increased.

If, as I propose, ideologies and culture in the US are mainly class based, geographically it is near impossible to separate. All of the classes can live in very close proximity to each other (ie different neighborhoods in the same city). How would Brute (or anyone else) recommend a separation? Are there alternative solutions?

User avatar
bryan
Posts: 568
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by bryan » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:00 pm

@ShriekingFeralHatred, do you really believe you can reduce complex systems to a binary model? What you are saying certainly doesn't match the realities I've encountered in the USA.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:18 pm

A really good article by an economist from Cal. It's long, but does a good job of identifying when and how many manufacturing jobs were eliminated, and why, on a macro level, this happened.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/ ... loss-trump

It also briefly touches on some other themes we have talked about, such as the propensity to not move from a depressed economic area to a prospering one.

User avatar
Dragline
Posts: 4189
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:37 pm

The second half of this new EconTalk podcast where they talk about the spread of heroin east of the Mississippi, what kind of problem opioid addiction is, and muse about "why don't people move out of economically depressed areas" is also relevant to this discussion:

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/0 ... es_on.html

7Wannabe5
Posts: 2499
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:47 am

I am reading "Four Futures: Visions of the World After Capitalism" by Peter Frase, and the author mentions a study which showed that all the psychological problems associated with being unemployed almost magically disappeared when unemployed individuals crossed over into retirement age or status. IOW, just feeling justified in being able to say "I am retired." rather than "I am unemployed" greatly improves happiness and cures dysfuntional behavior. Since women are more accustomed to engaging in work through which they derive meaning without direct remuneration, they generally suffer less stigma from "unemployed status." This can be particularly seen in the different social status generally assigned to an unmarried welfare mother vs. a married woman with children whose husband is unemployed.

Also, I would note that there is likely to be an end to our ability to retreat to productive employment not likely to be better facilitated by robots in the near future. Agriculture and manufacturing were just the first to fall. There are expensive machines already designed that will be used to pick delicate fruit crops as soon as there are no longer inexpensive migrant workers available. All the tedious research currently done by junior lawyers will soon be automated, along with every other form of research and customer service at that level.

The funny thing is that if I am reading the author correctly (possible not), this forum might qualify as an example of what Marx really meant when he used the term "commune", IF it was the case that all the investments any of us held were in endeavors largely being carried out by robots or as passionate avocation of other humans. I am taking a class on how to build my own robots, because I realized that PVC are a more efficient convertor of solar energy than potatoes, and I would advise the rest of you to do the same ;)

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:24 am

Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.

Robots/AI will definitely threaten some white collar jobs in the future. Though, if given a chance, which we don't seem to giving it right now, the market and society will create new/different jobs for people. This has happened multiple times in history. I'm sure the hunters and gathers all hated the farmers, the individual weavers all hated the spinning jenny, the farmers/related workers (75% of US population) all hated the industrialization of their profession (less than 2% now), and horse trainers, shit shovelers, buggy manufacturers...all hated Mr. Ford and the automobile.

The only difference now or at any time in history is who has to change. The one slight difference now is that it is happening a little faster and the US is coming off one of the most perfect economic situations in the history of the world, which can't be duplicated again unless millions die.

Toska2
Posts: 177
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:51 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Toska2 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:36 pm

The one slight difference now is that it is happening a little faster and the US is coming off one of the most perfect economic situations in the history of the world, which can't be duplicated again unless millions die.

That's two. ;) If I may, I would like to add a third. Capitalism and corporatism has reached the edges of the globe. There is nowhere to "go west and live off the land". The economic engine of the world affects all.

A fourth if you include the central bankers insistence on an always inflationary policy.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:09 pm

Yes, two. Still plenty of places to "go west" to & no I don't believe central banks are a big enough difference to be included with the others.

thrifty++
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by thrifty++ » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:59 pm

Are people in the USA freaked out by Trump's actions? I am so glad to be far away from it.
I was initially a little blase about Trump's election and thinking it would just be business as usual. But he actually is carrying out the things he said he would and more. What makes me anxious as well is the speed with which he is doing it too. Seems so dictatorial and extremist. Its been less than a week and already: a ban on federal money going to international groups that perform or provide information on abortions: hiring 10,000 more Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents; blocking grants to sanctuary cities: and now he really is going to build a wall FFS. Also I have heard reports that there is a proposal to remove the visa esta waiver programme with 38 countries, including NZ and Aussie, and institute a mandatory interview for anyone entering the USA. FFS no one will want to go there, how weird. Some of the policies being swiftly rolled out seem hate, fear and intolerance based.
Last edited by thrifty++ on Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Gilberto de Piento
Posts: 821
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Gilberto de Piento » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:10 pm

For some, Trumps actions are very worrying. For others, it's their dream come true. A third group has barely noticed and thinks it doesn't matter or won't affect them.

User avatar
Dragline
Posts: 4189
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:56 pm

Dismayed, yes. Freaked out about something unexpected, no. He's doing exactly what he said he was going to do. The only people who should be surprised are the ones who didn't believe him or thought he was somehow different from the same person he's been for most of his life.

Most people I know, whether they supported him or not, are hoping that the "adults in the room" who make up about half his advisors will take over at some point. I think that's probably wishful thinking. They're more likely to quit or be fired.

As the Dead Kennedys once sang in the 1980s, "We've Got A Bigger Problem Now." Only they didn't know they were prophets at the time.

scriptbunny
Posts: 194
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:46 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by scriptbunny » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:17 am

+1 to what Dragline said.

A lot of people I know in my very blue city are consoling themselves by saying the federal government is big, bureaucratic, and unwieldy and so it'll be hard to do for his executive orders to be implemented in an effective manner. There is some truth to that-- some of the executive orders have been headline-grabbing but more toothless in practice (e.g. ACA rollback). But that his administration is inclined to erode norms so quickly does not bode well.

steveo73
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:52 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by steveo73 » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:47 am

Chad wrote:A really good article by an economist from Cal. It's long, but does a good job of identifying when and how many manufacturing jobs were eliminated, and why, on a macro level, this happened.

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/ ... loss-trump

It also briefly touches on some other themes we have talked about, such as the propensity to not move from a depressed economic area to a prospering one.
This was a really good article.

ffj
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:16 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ffj » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:02 am

@ thrifty
I'm surprised at the speed he's pursuing these measures. I like the fact that he is trying to uphold his promises, but I wish he would slow down just a bit. I also worry about the amount of pushback in terms of real violence that will occur if some of his opponents feel they need to take action. And I think the speed at which he is operating will embolden these kinds of people to attack.

I have no problem with his national security measures, honestly it is what Obama should have been doing the past eight years. I am a little nervous with his intention to "wipe out" ISIS as there is so little information on what his plan entails. What does encourage me though is his willingness to bring people to the table and discuss the issues and as he says it "make a deal". I like that he puts people on notice such as the mayor of Chicago, with its horrible murder and crime rate. He's not ignoring issues, that's for sure.

The first hundred days of this administration is going to be a wild ride.

thrifty++
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by thrifty++ » Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:22 am

Oh I just found out that visa waiver proposal was misreported. It appears that there is no proposal to introduce an interview for existing visa waiver countries. Aargh get it right lazy journos!!!

7Wannabe5
Posts: 2499
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:09 am

Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.
No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.
Though, if given a chance, which we don't seem to giving it right now, the market and society will create new/different jobs for people.
True. The author suggests that we only or mostly experience the affluence afforded by automation, and not major associated ecological disasters, then we will likely either move towards a financially egalitarian society in which status is mostly acquired in social context (how many "likes" did your new hairstyle get?) or a financially lopsided situation with "rentiers" (individuals who own real estate, intellectual property rights (increasingly important), robots) at the top and the only employment opportunities available at the bottom will be in fields such as law, security, and robot maintenance. But, this will not be a stable situation due to crash of market demand once all credit has been fully extended and employed. IOW, the maintenance costs of the social construct of capitalism will become increasingly larger share of GDP.
Still plenty of places to "go west" to
True, for instance lots of wide open opportunity here in Detroit. The "West" was never some well-ordered Garden of Eden with fruit hanging low for the picking.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:51 am

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Chad said: Not surprising about the psychological aspects for the typical unemployed. Most people can't find meaningful projects to busy themselves with, so they rely on others to do this for them.
No, it's almost the opposite. The study shows that it's the social stigma of being unemployed that deflates happiness. Of course, the two may be intertwined since when you are "unemployed" , as opposed to being "retired", you are supposed to be "looking for a job" NOT mucking about in search of meaningfulness. OTOH, there are people who seize the interval of "unemployment" to become "self-employed" and many of these individuals end up being happier than when they had a job. The author of "Four Futures" gives "work" three possible definitions; what you do to earn enough money to survive, what has to be done to support society (infrastructure, commons) in general, and what you do because it draws your interest or passion. Few people are lucky enough to hold a job that provides all three. I am somewhat an advocate of the ideal work week of 2 days work for money, 1 day community service, 2 days highly creative work and 2 days pure relaxation model. Of course, this could also be broken down into hours/day or decades/life rather than days/week.
I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:10 am

@Thrifty

I fall in with much of what Dragline stated.

This is an example of the adults in the room failing to stop Trump concerning his "millions of illegal" votes claim:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/u ... MU5TAHryYL

This is the exact same type of information I get from certain friends who still live in my hometown.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 2499
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:59 am

Chad said: I think we are almost saying the same thing. I just used "meaning" as all encompassing term, which was a little lazy. For instance, I would suggest that many need society's approval to get meaning in their life. Thus, they can't find meaning when not in a normal job, as most of their meaning is derived from what they perceive to be the 2nd work definition from "Four Futures."
There is likely some garden-variety psychologically dysfunctional "need to be needed" manifesting in the 2nd definition, but there is also a whole lot of work that goes towards the maintenance of the huge shared infrastructure of any complex society. For instance, I think it is kind of hard to justify yourself as financially independent if you pay no taxes AND contribute no community service, but use the roadways, borrow books from the library and run on the park trails. Also, there are members of our society and other vulnerable/valued things in the world that simply do not have the means to be self-supporting, so those of us who have more than enough means need to do a bit more. And I don't mean to use "justify" in any sort of blue-haired matron "should" sort of manner, I am simply noting that this is an equation or equilibrium that is bound to break down over the long run if universally applied. Also, it is maybe even easier to be "self-employed" in social or community work than paid/survival work, so it can offer the benefits of autonomy. Even if you don't want to be forced to pay taxes, you can still choose to pick up trash from the park or teach a pack of disadvantaged kids how to kick a soccer ball, and you might even get a little perk of "feel good" from the effort.

User avatar
Chad
Posts: 3742
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:01 am


Post Reply