The Trump Problem (the real one)

Should you squeeze the toothpaste tube in the middle or from the end?
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Riggerjack
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Riggerjack » Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:59 pm

Ego, I have long supported the localized empowerment you linked to. But, it just doesn't work as well as it should.

Even in blue States, like WA, there are lots of red counties, trying to limit massive budget increases.

I believe federalism is a great solution to our political impasses. As I generally put it, life SHOULD BE different in California from Kentucky.

We gave 50 States, each with differing laws, views, histories, demographics. We don't need to solve all the problems the same way.

Seattle already has the $15 minimum wage (currently 12.50, 13.50 next month, $15 in 2018). But that is in line with the cost of living. Othello, out in farm country is still at 9.47. No need to wait for feds.

I think changing focus to local politics is a move in the right direction, but unlikely. There is less drama, and power at the lower levels, so less attention is paid. Even though this is where decisions that actually have impact on our daily lives are made.

George the original one
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by George the original one » Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:47 pm

I think the real difference between the shirt colors in Washington & Oregon has a lot to do with the urban/rural divide, where the people who own the most land don't like being outvoted by the people in the cities when it comes to what can be done with the land. Immigrants to Washington & Oregon settle in the cities, so this puts the rural residents on the losing side until these states have an exodus. Where the rural residents get sympathy is a belief that people should be self-sufficient without recourse to government aid (though of course few would refuse what they can rightfully collect and don't see things like leasing government land as aid, rather it's their birthright).

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BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:38 am

George the original one wrote:4.8% unemployment
that number is basically fraud. labor participation is at the lowest level since the 80s or so. that's not necessarily a perfect number either, but the "unemployment" number doesn't count humans who haven't looked in a month, have worked a day this year, have part-time jobs, and so on.

George the original one
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by George the original one » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:46 am

Well, ask any employer how deep their applicant pool is when they recruit for positions. They will tell you the market is tight, so the jobs are there, but people aren't applying. Certainly that is by choice of the labor pool, which is an indicator that they don't WANT to participate.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:33 am

There are always problems with any macro number like labor participation rate. I used to think this made these numbers questionable, but not any more. You just need to be aware of the issue(s) with each number so you don't get blindsided. It's not like the numbers in 1980, 1970, etc. were perfect either. Right now the labor participation rate seems to be more right than wrong, and that's about the best you can say for any macro number.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:47 pm

I don't have any idea who this guy is, but he seems to accurately describe the current situation. One that I'm sure at least partially guilty of.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a5 ... ate=120116

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Riggerjack
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Riggerjack » Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:01 pm

Sounds like a good show, until his producers fill in his guest list and live audience with Jerry springer rejects. TV doesn't do reality well, it is just too easy to go to Reality TV.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Tue Dec 06, 2016 3:23 pm

I just liked the write up.

Yeah, I'm not entirely hopeful on the show. Especially, with Rick Santorum. Though, that is probably why I should watch. I'm not sure I could agree with him on anything.

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Riggerjack
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Riggerjack » Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:57 pm

I don't agree with rachel maddow about anything, but it is always good to listen to people I don't agree with. Sometimes, they have good reasons for being wrong. It's always good for me to review my thoughts, and be certain I'm right. I can't do that in an echo chamber of agreement.

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Riggerjack
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Riggerjack » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:28 pm

And every once in a while, I find that I am wrong, and that makes it worth listening.

Almost all of my current beliefs were reassoned out, after listening to people who had better beliefs than I.

I started out very liberal, and knew that those who didn't agree with me, disagreed out of stubbornness, ignorance or corruption. Now, I am fairly conservative, and find most people disagree with me out of moderation, and compromise, and a disproportionate amount of empathy...

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Dragline
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Dragline » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:36 pm

BRUTE wrote:
George the original one wrote:4.8% unemployment
that number is basically fraud. labor participation is at the lowest level since the 80s or so. that's not necessarily a perfect number either, but the "unemployment" number doesn't count humans who haven't looked in a month, have worked a day this year, have part-time jobs, and so on.
Huh? Have you actually looked at the data? Here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... ation-rate

The labor participation rate has varied (not very much, really) from about 57% to 67% since 1950 and is currently in the middle of that range, as it was in the 1980s. It increased most steeply under President Carter, peaked around 2001 and has been declining ever since. It essentially matches the Baby Boomer generation's entry and exit from the labor force.

On employment itself, if you want to include the other people looking for work, the statistic you are interested in is called U-6, which has only existed since 1994. U-3 or U-4 is actually comparable to historical figures, though, because U-3's data set goes back to 1890. (I don't know why you are labeling it a "fraud" -- its just data.) Here is the graph of recent U-3, U-5 and U-6: http://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate

U-6 has never been below about 7.5%, which occurred in the late 1990s. It peaked at over 17% in December 2009 and has been declining ever since. It sits at about 9.3% now. It has been lower only from 1996-2001 and 2005-2008.

So where is this "fraud" you allege? Sounds like fake news, I'm afraid.

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BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:03 pm

Dragline wrote:Huh? Have you actually looked at the data? Here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... ation-rate
according to Dragline's link, last time the number was this low was around 1978. 1980s it was a bit higher. so "lowest since 80s or so" is even being generous, it's really "lowest since late 70s".

sounds like fact, brute's afraid.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:02 am

@riggerjack
I do agree it's good to listen to the other side. I just generally try to find someone on the other side I view as rational with different views. I view Santorum as irrational with different views. Huntsman is more my speed for an opposing voice. I'm really hoping for Huntsman to get Sec State. I would have really liked to have seen him vs Obama in 2012.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:10 am

I agree with Dragline. After the internet really got started all of sudden everyone realized the "numbers" weren't handed down by god. They have always been squishy. Economists have always known this. The general public is just waking up to this fact. Unfortunately, the reaction is that the numbers are fake. Ritholtz wrote a good article/rant on it recently.

http://ritholtz.com/2016/11/nilf/

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BRUTE
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by BRUTE » Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:12 am

still, focusing on 4.8% unemployment as a good thing if, in combination with labor force participation, it only means more humans stopped looking.. basically fraud. especially if one is an economist, or informed by some.

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Chad
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Chad » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:29 pm

A good article on the $4B Air Force One hullabaloo.

https://www.wired.com/2016/12/mr-trump- ... force-one/

Just hardening the plane for EMP would be incredibly expensive without including all the high end communications gear.

Based on one's view of Trump, this tweet is either an ill informed loose cannon reaction or a brilliant negotiating tactic.

ShriekingFeralHatred
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:03 pm

blah
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Miss Lonelyhearts
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Miss Lonelyhearts » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:26 pm

@SFH: who are the "opponents" of the white working class who "openly agitated for them to be chained to their desks"? When and where did they advocate for this policy?

Also, I'm curious to know how many people of color you've encountered personally who hate the white working class. Have you found this common in people you've met? You appear to believe this feeling is widespread, but you haven't provided any evidence to support it. Since people of color constitute over 100,000,000 people in the US, what makes you certain that this belief can safely be generalized over such a large population?

ShriekingFeralHatred
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:54 pm

blah
Last edited by ShriekingFeralHatred on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

halfmoon
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by halfmoon » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:58 pm

@ShriekingFeralHatred,

Your user name begins to make more sense. It's clear from this and your other posts that you despise your life, your chosen career and humanity in general. I'm not sure how we could all separate into Us and Them by urban vs rural, white vs color, rich vs working class; there's a huge amount of crossover. Regardless, this wouldn't solve the issue of your hatred for your life.

If you've learned nothing else from Jacob's book and this forum, it should be that you aren't a victim. If you don't like the direction things are going, you can change them. Look at the people here who are turning their lives into a realization of their dreams regardless of external factors. It doesn't happen by finding others to blame and stoking resentment against them, and it doesn't happen as a result of any election outcome.

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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by jennypenny » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:36 am

ShriekingFeralHatred wrote:The rest of my opinion is formed from the combined observation of my whole adult life, from living in majority white areas to 99%+ nonwhite areas.

After living among many types of people in many demographic proportions over a long period of time, I have concluded that the commonly accepted premise of "tolerance" and "everyone getting along" is exactly wrong, and that what we need most is to separate into Us and Them and go our separate ways.
If you're just finishing med school, you must be what ... 30 tops? As someone who's "whole adult life" is 3x longer than yours, my advice is to keep an open mind and get out into the real world before writing off entire segments of the population. You're awfully young to have your mind made up about everything.

ShriekingFeralHatred
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:46 am

blah
Last edited by ShriekingFeralHatred on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Campitor
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Campitor » Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:11 am

ShriekingFeralHatred wrote:After living among many types of people in many demographic proportions over a long period of time, I have concluded that the commonly accepted premise of "tolerance" and "everyone getting along" is exactly wrong, and that what we need most is to separate into Us and Them and go our separate ways.
I would say that history isn't on your side. Humans have historically advanced from the fusion of different cultures, races, and ideas. Sharing culture and connecting to something outside of ourselves is so ingrained that as a species we have gone out of our way to do it even to animals hence the domestication of once wild fauna into pets. To venture out, discover, swap our genes as far and as wide as possible is ingrained in our DNA. The founder of this forum, Jacob, is of a different culture but here we are swapping ideas which are rooted in personal history/culture/education with people we never met so I find your comment about separatism somewhat ironic.

ShriekingFeralHatred
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by ShriekingFeralHatred » Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:15 am

blah
Last edited by ShriekingFeralHatred on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Campitor
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Re: The Trump Problem (the real one)

Post by Campitor » Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:27 am

ShriekingFeralHatred wrote:He is not terribly different culturally. He is more similar to me on a genetic, cultural and class basis than a random Nigerian or something.
Similar but not the same yet neither of you chose to go separate ways but instead are exchanging ideas on his forums with one another and others in the ERE community - heck some of us could be Nigerian. ;)

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