Pick your post-peak future corner

[7Wannabe5]

I wrote:
OTOH, there is a level on which it is sort of ridiculous to create such a model of sustainability when I am currently surrounded by dumpsters full of rotting foodstuffs, and affluent men willing to buy me dinner and/or a plane ticket out of Dodge City, but the puzzle intrigues me and I can't think of anything better to do, or anyplace better to do it.



jacob wrote: This is likely the reasoning why societal transition has yet to be prioritized. Why start now when it seems easier to start next decade? Why start locally when it seems easier to relocate globally? Why be the first mover when it seems easier to copy the leader?

Such a strategy makes sense if the belief is that we're on a continuous slope. If we're approaching a discontinuous cliff situation, ...

You are pretty optimistic if you think this is the reasons why social transition has yet to be prioritized. Most people don't even know there might be a problem. One interesting thing I have noticed is that many of the people who know that there might be a problem, but deny that there actually is a problem are, in fact, some of those best skilled or situated to cope with the eventuality. Like right now they stand to gain by denying the problem because they are currently incentivized to be building stuff for the DOD or Ford, but then when there actually is a problem, they will be the ones who know how to build other stuff.

Also, I might have used the word "wasteful" rather than "ridiculous" above, because creating a closed model of sustainability within a larger ecosystem full of waste streams is inherently not conservative of resources. My overall Renaissance Person plan is aimed at developing practices that will also tend towards improving the quality of my life in any best case scenario. Mmmm...fresh heirloom apricots.

[jacob]

@ffj - It's not 2050 in the form of a point event as much as it's somewhere between 2030 and 2080 in the form of a roll-over. There are a bunch of consilient vectors indicating the timing. Current farming methods rely on 5ish main factors: soil+climate, water, nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium.

Nitrogen is directly coupled to natural gas via the Haber Bosch process. Nearly 80% of the nitrogen found in the average human being today originated in a chemical nitrogen plant. If countries intend to stay within the 2C limit, much of the world's fossil fuels will be imputed (have to stay underground). This means building up even more alternative energy sources to drive the electrolysis to get the hydrogen instead of taking it out of methane. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process

If countries decide to exceed the 2C limit (and note that there's a 33% this might happen anyway; 2C is not a ceiling, it's a conditional probability with p<66%) by charging ahead with the natgas, then the limit is soil+climate. Desertification is an increasing issue. With business as usual, the US corn basket will be wiped up by 2100. E.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToY4eeWsdLc

Water is partially mined (aquifer), partially transported in (rivers from mountain snowfall), and partially relies on monsoons. Water shortages are widely considered to be the biggest issue.

Potassium is currently being mined instead of recycled. Most of the world's supply comes from Canada and Russia (75% of it). Like oil, market prices are already very volatile and enough to translate into retail prices and cause food riots.
http://media.ycharts.com/charts/e3f87cb ... 6f8593.png

Phosphorous is also being mined instead of recycled. Most of the world's supply comes from Morocco (there are only a few deposits in very local places around the world). Peak extraction is expected around 2030 but the cost of production is already rising http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 800800099X

Possible responses will be e.g. recovering NPK (replace flush toilets), switching the world to vegetarianism (animals are much less efficient), having fewer babies, decrease of lifespan (malnutrition and the resulting consequences primarily epidemics), famines, and/or war.

@7wb5 - That's the first time in a long time someone has called me optimistic. Most people miss the underlying currents (the disease) and blame year-to-year/local stuff like not being able to find a job or the rent being too damn expensive (the symptoms).

[JL13]

@Jacob

So if I'm understanding this correctly (it's been 16 years since HS Chem), right now we're splitting of the H in the natural gas HC, and then combining it with atmospheric N2 to create 2NH3 which is called Ammonia? So the issue (from a global warming perspective) is that when you split up the HC then you get CO2?

But the alternative is that we could just pull H out of H20 with enough electricity from non-CO2 emitting sources?

What is the waste stream for NPK? Is it all being absorbed by humans and livestock? Or is some of it being wasted and collecting somewhere?

[7Wannabe5]

@jacob: Interesting, neat and concise summary of status quo course to disaster.

This is how I intend to mine my own P and K on site. Plants that are good mineral accumulators can very well leach their own P and K out of otherwise less accessible sources in the soil. One of my friends has already seen excellent results with a two year trial of this method on his nearby property. Clover and alfalfa will also be in my mix for direct fixation of nitrogen and indirect production of ammonia through animal feed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqjW4EtUCe8

One of the reason why I chose my location is ready availability of potable water with moderate, reasonably steady precipitation throughout the year. The situation will almost certainly grow more erratic, but according to my calculations, my need for supplementing water supply (irrigation) will be easily achieved and maintained with very small reservoir system that could even be created out of something like series of partially buried second-hand 15 gallon Rubbermaid totes and catchment off of my dome greenhouse. However, I am in the process of creating a very small swale and pond system. My main concern is that I garden in a neighborhood where small children are frequently allowed to wander unattended, so my reservoirs need to be extremely shallow, quickly draining in useful direction, covered or secured with sturdy fencing.

I am also in the process of purchasing a vintage (will not pay more than $1000) camper to park and periodically move (via some sort of deep discount Yemenese or Bengali immigrant towing service or anybody I am dating who owns/operates a truck) from one of my gardening sites to the other. This will make recycling of most of my own urine very easy.

I don't believe that vegetarianism is strictly necessary because animal food sources can be much more efficiently integrated into a small-scale permaculture system than in the Big Corn/Big Beef/Big Petroleum equation. For instance, I would not choose, unless my situation became truly desperate, to consume something like a stew made out of alfalfa and slugs, but rabbits and ducks are not quite so picky, and will convert alfalfa and slugs into fertilizer, meat and eggs. Also, the plant vs. meat dichotomy is rather false at any scale other than the giant land animal one we inhabit, because plants "eat" very tiny creatures themselves.

OTOH, I intend to do my personal best to avoid decrease of lifespan, famine and/or war. However, if my experimental project proves successful, I think that I will "deserve" 1 human grandchild as reward, especially if I also manage to breed a cold hardy source of caffeine. If necessary, I am also prepared to martyr myself by trading sexual favors with whatever grouchy old guy on the the governor's staff has the power to veto the expansion of the hazardous waste storage facility located less than a mile from me, but then I think the Millennials and Nexts should also grant me one small emotional support animal in addition to one human grandchild.

[7Wannabe5]

JL13 said: What is the waste stream for NPK? Is it all being absorbed by humans and livestock? Or is some of it being wasted and collecting somewhere?

http://www.pbs.org/video/2365328080/