Trump - Clown Genius

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
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bryan
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by bryan »

jennypenny wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:54 pm
Pence is losing support among Republicans because they feel he has been too hands off and would not necessarily be a great replacement for Trump. Some feel like he's supporting all the wrong issues behind the scenes (and supporting Trump too much on camera). He's apparently also spending a lot of time campaigning (privately) for his own political future instead of helping the party out. One person said the party's perception of Pence's actions thus far are not kind -- they think he's being calculating, not judicious. Lack of confidence in Pence will slow any effort to remove Trump.
Guess I didn't post explicitly here, but elsewhere in Jan/Feb I wrote that I think Trump wants to get impeached and Ryan will be playing HoC for the Presidency (i.e. not sticking it to Trump until he is sure Pence will be out of the way). :twisted:

I went through my twitter feed purging political retweets recently and the last 6 months have been completely mental :cry:

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

Thanks, jp -- that makes more sense than anything I've heard. It does seem like its all photo ops and campaign stuff all the time. That's all you see on his tweets besides complaining about the tv or the newspapers and throwing various staff and would-be allies under the bus.

I'd be really pissed if I was Sessions and gave up my Senate seat for this guy. Maybe Pence is just worried he's next if he doesn't kow-tow on camera in the right way.

I wonder who put the bug about the transgender stuff in his ear. Either some supporter at the rally in Youngstown or maybe he was just looking for a distraction or a new scapegoat, saw the news from Texas and thought he would jump on that bandwagon. The immigrants and Muslims angle is getting kind of played.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Today's announcement had nothing to do with Trump's feelings on transgenders. He's trying to stick it to a handful of senators he feels aren't supporting him enough on the healthcare issue. He's also pissed at Mattis at the moment.

I'm not defending him. Just explaining what prompted the announcement.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

I agree he probably doesn't give a rats ass either way. But I must be missing something -- how does the announcement on transgenders stick it to the senators?

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Most of the republican senators who didn't vote to repeal ACA have been vocal supporters of transgenders in the military (all except for Alexander IIRC). You'll probably see a bunch of announcements this week that are meant to stir up trouble for representatives as they head home for break.

Mattis has also been dragging his feet on the issue. He was directed months ago to come up with specific numbers on transgenders in the military -- number serving and where, health care costs associated with them, costs for other accommodations -- and Mattis has been stalling because he has no issue with anyone serving as long as they are fit for service. Wasn't it Mattis who quipped that the military spends more supplying troops with Viagra than it spends on transgender needs?

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

What I don't understand is how intelligent people like Mattis, Sessions and Tillerson thought Trump was going to be anything other than what he has shown since the late 80's. Why Scaramucci thinks jumping on board is a good idea after all this is really surprising. I guess he just wants to be able to say he was in the White House at some point in his career.
The WH is pressing representatives from Qatar and other states to work to calm tensions in the region. It's interesting because the one credible Russian theory I've heard is that if Trump wanted to/agreed to help Putin in a roundabout way, the easiest way to do that would be to drive up oil prices. I heard the speculation after he cozied up to Saudi Arabia and again this week. Russia and SA would both benefit from higher prices.
Is Trump giving the order for the White House to press reps from Qatar/other states to calm tensions or is someone else ordering it? Trump may have not given much direction either way, which seems likely given what you said about his work ethic and interest in governing. This would match everything we see.

The Bannon tax plan might have a chance for Democratic support. I don't know all the details, but the handful I have heard like raising taxes at the high end and giving tax cuts to the middle class gives it at least a chance for the Democratic support.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

It's getting to the point I cannot stomach "watching" what's going on in Washington any more. Since there are no news-mentary sources that align with my perspective (they are all too far left of me or too far right of me) I had been trying to do the dumbell thing by splitting my time evenly between a moderately far left news outlet and a moderately far right radio commentator (selected only because they are on air during my commute time). But even that's not working any more.

A few thoughts on recent issues:

-The military isn't really a malleable bastion for free speech and self-expression, so I can sympathize with the attitude that you want a bunch of 1 each, standard soldier, type pegs to plug into soldier-shaped holes with as little complication as possible. That said, Klinger was a pretty good nurse. Further, the president broaching that subject by tweet, regardless of his motives, is pretty crass.

-Healthcare. I was initially not in favor of a repeal-only approach but Rand Paul changed my mind. His take was that repeal-only would be the only way to potentially bring the political left into the process of coming up with a replacement and I think there's merit to that. As long as we have unilateral ramming of plans with zero support from the other side, we're just going to careen between systems as the political winds change. One big problem in the discussion which frustrates me to no end is that there has been a conflation between medical insurance and healthcare, and medical insurance for many has become synonymous with paid-for healthcare. A fatal flaw in what I hear out there is this idea that young, healthy people should be allowed to forgo insurance "until they need it" but insurers must insure anyone who wants it, and irrespective of that providers must provide care. That's like saying, "I'll buy homeowners insurance right after I call the fire department," with the insurance company being forced to give it to you. It just won't work. To stay in business the insurance company would have to charge you more than the replacement value of your property. So you don't buy it because you know a builder must rebuild it anyway, and Home Depot has to provide you appliances, etc., etc.

The more I think about it the more I think there are fundamentally two choices. We can, as a nation of taxpayers, provide everyone with some reasonably humane basic level of medical care which will cost us all a significant amount of money throughout our lives. Or we can say everyone is on their own for medical and refuse service to people who can't pay. I don't think there's a stable set point between the two.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

I only watch TV news from the business channels. They aren't perfect, but they are better at being rational about politics. Though every now and then this happens: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__dEBQaVcew

The real problem isn't necessarily the normal nightly news on any of the channels. It's the supposed "news" shows like Hannity, Morning Joe, Maddow, O'Reilly, Limbaugh, etc. and even some of the none news channel shows like The Daily Show. When Koppel told Hannity he was bad for America he was dead on: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... /99680636/

I don't trust the Republicans to actually replace the ACA if it was repealed. This is probably a big obstacle for that tactic.

Also, it's not like the few new options proposed to replace the ACA were even remotely palatable for the Democratic side. There was no give from the Republicans, so Democrats weren't going to come to the table and be part of the mess.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

I don't watch any TV unless it is sports, certainly not "news". It's all really political commentary (news-mentary) anyway. Some like Hannity are up-front about it, others less so. Koppel is just a left version of Hannity (his commentary that guys who do commentary like Hannity are bad is the only thing 60 Minutes aired out of a 50 minute interview, which is ironic). Mistrust of Republicans re replacement of ACA might be well-founded if the expectation is a unilateral solution. But with some democrats willing to participate, the process doesn't get held hostage by the farthest of the right. Ideally in that scenario the far fringe on both sides are the ones who get marginalized (as arguably they should be). At that point it might not be simply a binary matter of opposing/swallowing something regurgitated by the right, but working up something bipartisan in origin.

There is no single solution that will make everyone happy, that much is clear because there is an enormous amount of money at stake. ACA will die pretty much any way you slice it. Having everyone in power stand on the sidelines with their arms folded while it does would be characteristically juvenile of them, but I hope they do better.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

All I have heard for seven years is about Obamacare was the worst thing that ever befell mankind. If that is true, then why is it so difficult to come up with a better plan after 7 years of wailing and moaning about it?

The answer is that its actually a pretty good plan and provides a workable framework if you do not want either zero government involvement with healthcare or a single payer system. (Romney figured that out in Massachusetts and the ACA has Republican roots.) The plans on the table are not "fix the problem plans." They are either "no plans" or sabotage plans. After seven years, they should just admit they can't come up with anything better and propose a repair plan, which is what has happened historically with every single benefit program. A lot of the fixes are not that hard. But first some people have to admit they were wrong and have been lying about it for seven years.

Bomb throwing at the ACA was easy. Actual governing is hard, isn't it? Of course, having an incompetent leader who never had any plan of any kind and can't lead/nobody wants to follow doesn't help much, either. Then again, they expected the next four years were just going to be bomb-throwing at Clinton.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

If you think Koppel is the same as Hannity...I just don't know what to say.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

brute would suggest that ACA in its current implementation is unworkable in some situations, and many of the things that "made it work" were hacks/accounting tricks.

- the whole "20 million will go uninsured crap" has nothing to do with ObamaCare as a system, ACA simply paid states money now to add more humans to Medicaid. Medicaid is probably better than nothing, but it's terrible. and those subsidies will eventually be reduced, leaving the states with huge bills. selling future debt for current benefit to politicians and voters is very low form.

- the exchanges are a good idea in brute's mind, they are literally markets. but the individual mandates and a few other regulations made the system overly rigid and expensive in some lower income states.

- it didn't address the root cause of the problem at all, which is overpriced health care. it was only about who should subsidize whom.

- it didn't address the elephant in the room (in brute's opinion), namely: why is health care different for employees vs. other humans? employer-based health insurance is a huge tax break for companies and a subsidy to employees, removing them from the insurance pool that other poor schmucks have to buy into.

if "improving the ACA" meant loosening regulation on individual mandate etc., removing the tax advantage from or simply dissolving the employer-based system, removing the Medicaid scam hack, brute would be all for it. it would be an improvement over both the old and the current system. yet it would not address the biggest issue, insanely high medical cost. but removing all the subsidies and proxies might make that pain more visible, and thus give it a chance to be resolved eventually.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

Superficially TK and SH are night and day, I'll go that far.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

Please explain.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

BRUTE wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:20 am

- it didn't address the elephant in the room (in brute's opinion), namely: why is health care different for employees vs. other humans?

if "improving the ACA" meant loosening regulation on individual mandate etc., removing the tax advantage from or simply dissolving the employer-based system, removing the Medicaid scam hack, brute would be all for it. it would be an improvement over both the old and the current system. yet it would not address the biggest issue, insanely high medical cost. but removing all the subsidies and proxies might make that pain more visible, and thus give it a chance to be resolved eventually.
Why are paychecks different for employees than for other humans? :)

Part of the other side of what DT seems to be up to is making HSA's more widely available and making premiums HSA-eligible (and/or premiums deductible), which would level the field from a tax perspective. Not sure what you mean by relaxing the individual mandate, but it would need to be balanced by a relaxing of the insurance provider mandate if that happens. I think you are correct pulling the taxpayer/insurance rug out from under the system would eventually result in a cheaper overall system: services would have to be priced competitively, fewer total services would be performed, and there would be fewer beaks dipping into the bowl as its passed around.

Selfishly, I wouldn't mind if ACA somehow survived. It would probably be the best situation for me as an early retiree, and it could probably be propped up long enough to get me to Medicaid. But there's not enough political impetus to make it happen. On the right they want it to fail to say, "See, we told you, look what those blue guys did--disaster." On the left they want any sort of amend/replace effort to fail so they can say, "Ack, see, the red guys took your healthcare away from you!"

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

The best article on a massive failure for the Trump presidency. It also demonstrates how complicated government actually is and why operating on an ideological basis doesn't serve us. It's long, but well worth it.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/ ... hael-lewis

blackbird
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by blackbird »

Chad, that article is unnerving. Not just for the DOE, but think of smaller, lesser known agencies that probably were ignored to a higher degree. Reading that last bit about the ground tanks,... yikes.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

The article is worth taking the time to read. Lewis is a great writer.

The one thing he doesn't touch on in the article is how to pay for everything. I can think of a thousand programs worth funding, but the money has to come from somewhere. I'm not arguing that we should slash the DoE budget. I'm only pointing out the reality of the situation. I honestly don't know if it's possible to prioritize programs and establish long-term funding when the political climate shifts every 4-8 years. Some civil institutions may need to be removed entirely from the political appointee system for continuity. Of course, they would still need funding and since Congress doesn't seem that concerned about getting a budget done anymore I don't know how that would work either.


There are still lots of empty desks in other institutions as well. Some projects sit idle, half-finished, the staff gone -- even though they still have funding.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

^This. A massive problem with tying such instituitions into the political process is that some project are continuous work and in general should not be messed with via changing of political appointments.

bryan
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by bryan »

Yeah... that article should be enough to make anyone a doomer!

On what page did we come to consensus that Trump was only a clown, no genius? Is it really the Russians that were the geniuses? Are there folks behind the curtain completely giddy right now (Trump lasting in office past April)? What does a first-world coup look like?

Of course "Trump" is just a symptom.. (and I'm sure someone in the last 85 pages has said it in more detail).

I'm just hoping that all of this has a positive unintended consequence for the future.

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