Trump - Clown Genius

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JamesR
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Trump - Clown Genius

Post by JamesR » Thu Sep 24, 2015 7:25 pm

Scott Adams has been arguing that Trump has been using his skills at persuasion (Trump did write a book on it) as well as NLP to set up anchors & mental associations to his benefit or to disarm media traps, and that this happens to explain why he's been dominating the polls.


Some anchors Trump has setup:

Jeb => "Low-energy"
Carson => "Nice guy" (too nice)
Fiorna => "Look at that face!"/Robotic
Clinton => "Major security risk"


Defusing a media trap:
In the first debate, Megyn Kelly asked Trump to explain his offensive comments about specific women. If Trump had engaged in the question, the headlines the next day would have been about him “walking back” what he said, or lying about what he said, or simply being smeared with the topic in general. It was a perfect media trap. Trump was expected to say something generic and defensive, and then the media would take it out of context and paint him as a horrible sexist. That ploy would have generated a week’s worth of “news” that required no research and no flying into a war zone. Very economical.

But Trump dropped an anchor on the media’s collective asses before the question was fully formed. He interrupted with “Only Rosie O’Donnell” (an unpopular name among core Republicans) and completely owned the headlines after that. That was some genius misdirection, and it was probably planned in advance. So that’s a good example of when to use a strong, visual anchor.

Read more: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1274792552 ... z3mhmL5bq9

The original post: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius

All the trump-related posts: http://blog.dilbert.com/tagged/Trump



I'm not american, but I'm starting to think that Trump might actually win. And that it might be interesting to see what happens then.
Last edited by JamesR on Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ffj
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:07 pm

I haven't followed his platform at all and on the surface he seems like an insufferable person to be around, but I gotta say it's been refreshing hearing him turn the the tables on these news agencies and pundits. Whether you agree with him or not, at least he has the balls to say what he says and not apologize for his views. I really feel most people are tired of being held hostage by the horrible PC policing and pandering that occurs in the media. He told Fox News he was boycotting them the other day! Can you imagine any other candidate doing something like that?

I too, thought he was a bit of a joke at first, but look at our other choices. :roll:

Slevin
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Slevin » Fri Sep 25, 2015 1:26 am

I'm going to preface this off by stating the fact that I don't vote, and I don't pay an incredible amount of attention to the general elections. It is a personal choice, but I am apathetic to which monkey the US puts on display to lead the country (and I also dislike jury duty).

I do however find it hilarious that Trump is leading in the polls. He really doesn't have much of a platform he is running on, yet people love him. Current comments I have heard about him through random conversation: "Well he knows how to run a business, and that's what this country needs", "He has destroyed and dismantled hundreds of businesses and only been successful with one", "He hates women", "If he gets elected, UGH!","His hair is so gross". I have heard nothing about his policy, yet everyone seems to have a VERY strong opinion about him.

On another note; is it possible that Trump is leading the polls just because he is far more of a household name than any of the other candidates? He has had a strong media presence for over a decade now, may people just feel comfortable with him leading the country due to the recognition factor?

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Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:58 am

Slevin wrote: On another note; is it possible that Trump is leading the polls just because he is far more of a household name than any of the other candidates? He has had a strong media presence for over a decade now, may people just feel comfortable with him leading the country due to the recognition factor?
This among other things.

His thought process is also the same as the average person...shallow, with little research.

41% of Americans think we need a fence on the Canadian border. Do they watch South Park and think it's real? This is not Trump's idea, but it provides a good view into the thought process of a good portion of Americans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic ... ern-border

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Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Fri Sep 25, 2015 7:33 am

I agree that his biggest "contribution" is to show just how feckless most of the media is, and in particular TV media. Reminds me why its really not worth watching other than as an anthropological study. But since he assumes that the entire venue is a theater of the absurd, fame-driven and has no memory, there's no reason not to engage in absurd behavior that increases exposure while in that venue. In effect, he shows that the would-be emperors of public opinion have no clothes and are essentially just blow-hards like him.

For him, its a win-win situation, because he's fundamentally most interested in how famous he can be. And it plays into the popular obsession with fame-for-its-own-sake as an important goal in life.

I'd be curious to see how many of his supporters actually watch so-called reality TV like the Apprentice vs. the general population. I would guess his supporters are out-sized consumers of all forms of television.

But I do feel happy for one of my favorite impressionists, Frank Caliendo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49dFSAm9Eew

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by GandK » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:00 am

Dragline wrote:For him, its a win-win situation, because he's fundamentally most interested in how famous he can be. And it plays into the popular obsession with fame-for-its-own-sake as an important goal in life.
That's how I see him, too. Anything for a photo op or a sound byte. He's the Kim Kardashian of politics.
Dragline wrote:I'd be curious to see how many of his supporters actually watch so-called reality TV like the Apprentice vs. the general population. I would guess his supporters are out-sized consumers of all forms of television.
I'm on the periphery of the Republican political establishment. And we (G and I) have yet to find anyone within the Machine who supports Trump. Every time a poll comes out showing Trump in the lead, there's more dismay around here. "You didn't say you'd vote for him, did you? And I didn't say I'd vote for him. Nobody here would vote for him. Who the hell are they polling?!" It's really funny.

I do suspect that he's less of a threat than the polls suggest because the establishment does loathe him. Once the public finishes voting people off the island, the remaining non-Trump Republican will receive all the money they need to win the final vote. That person will likely only fail if they stumble. Of course, all that will go out the window in the unlikely event that Trump ends up taking the nomination. The only person the Machine hates worse than Trump is Hillary.

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Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:13 am

GandK wrote: I'm on the periphery of the Republican political establishment. And we (G and I) have yet to find anyone within the Machine who supports Trump. Every time a poll comes out showing Trump in the lead, there's more dismay around here. "You didn't say you'd vote for him, did you? And I didn't say I'd vote for him. Nobody here would vote for him. Who the hell are they polling?!" It's really funny.

I do suspect that he's less of a threat than the polls suggest because the establishment does loathe him. Once the public finishes voting people off the island, the remaining non-Trump Republican will receive all the money they need to win the final vote.
This is a great Bloomberg podcast interviewing Nate Silver who discusses the current polls and how history suggests this will all work out. He basically says that when using historical models, where "Trumps" are more common than people realize, Trump ends up with a very low probability of winning at this point (1-3%). He also notes this probability can change going forward.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/08/ma ... eight-com/

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:47 am

Well, here's some outside perspective ...

Trump parallels some of the populist parties on the European political scene in that people are using him to vote against the establishment candidates. Were he running in Europe, he'd likely be heading one of those parties. Such parties rarely if ever have a coherent or fully-developed platform (meaning they would never actually be able to translate their principles into a sustainable workable government).

In general such populism seems to be based on a combination of outright nationalism (something that distinguishes "us" from "them") and/or populist socialism (usually focused on broad redistribution to the masses (pensions, healthcare, ... ) and state-sponsored job projects (building roads, dams, military expansion, ...) ). This kind of tribal inward-turning "keeping them out while focusing on ourselves" caters to some very powerful human drives which is why they're such an easy sell to the masses.

Historically (see 20th century in which very many countries had been democratised, especially Europe and South America) populism seems to pop up whenever an economy suffers extended recessions. It usually goes away on its own after the economy recovers but sometimes if driven by a sufficiently charismatic strong-leader-type whom people actually believe will make their country great, it doesn't. It would be a mistake---which intellectuals keep repeating---to underestimate how strong these populist currents can get; especially if early success is demonstrated.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by JamesR » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:04 am

Chad wrote:
Slevin wrote: His thought process is also the same as the average person...shallow, with little research.

41% of Americans think we need a fence on the Canadian border.
So the fence thing is largely just a negotiating tactic, especially the mexican side. His immigration policy is largely outrageous, way over on the unfeasible side - but it gives him room to negotiate and bring it down to a much more moderate position.

Trump is probably a smart, rational guy - contrary to appearances. He's actually an atheist, but he keeps that on the down low. He knows how to pander to the great mass that have an average IQ of 100.


BTW, about a lack of platform - it's kind of irrelevant. Since when do politicians deliver on their platforms/promises? In reality, all plans/platforms fall apart when the guy is elected President. You can really only hope that you have a non-moron in office.

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Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:13 am

I don't think it's a negotiating tactic at all. It appears to be a way to do what others have noted he does...grab the spotlight. It's outrageous and it taps into the fear of people who have no basic knowledge of the issue. Whatever else his positions do are just a bonus, but not calculated. He is definitely the Kardashian of politics.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by JamesR » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:16 am

I think a truly strategic guy that wants to get into office would take the Kardashian route to get there. Make everyone underestimate you and then hammer through some awesome shit when you're in office. :P

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by George the original one » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:06 pm

Trump's headlines are nothing but a spew of hate and vitriol. I have not heard one positive word from him.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Ego » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:31 am

Whoops.

Image

OldPro
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro » Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:43 am

As a Canadian, I can't decide which I think is worse. Trump in the USA or our newly elected Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, here in Canada. Both are an embarrassment to anyone with half a brain, in either country. I'm beginning to wonder if the book of Revelation has got it right and this is the beginning of the 'end of times'. :shock:

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GandK
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by GandK » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:49 pm


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Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:24 pm

Because he reminds them and reinforcing the meme that they are the "real victims" of a host of scapegoats that he will corral and neuter for them. This is what all politicians do. He's just more upfront about it than most.

On the other hand, I find it amusing when he invokes the "silent majority", as I believe that now most resembles a college educated women about 30 with a job, who may or may not be white and/or recently married, but probably doesn't have children yet.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:38 pm

The poll is not so surprising given that the same brand of populism also very successfully targets the uneducated working class demographic in the European theater---except Trump has managed to piss off women and practically all minorities as well which is unusual.

Trump gives simple answers (build a wall, make the country great again, ban all Muslims) to complex problems. It works on whoever thinks that the world and its problems really are quite simple and that all we need is someone who can just "tell it like it is" and "get'er done".

"Trump says a lot of things that just make sense" is a very common phrase. It's the same mindset who believe that "normal" politicians are deliberately obfuscating things and making solutions overly complex.

Of course the problem is that the world IS complex, but because of the basic orientation that "the world should be simple", any kind of elaborate or complex explanation/rebuttal to the Trump demographic is like water off the duck's back. This is also why he can get away with making all these oversimplistic inane statements. It doesn't matter that the statements are stupid. What matters is that they're simple! Explaining the stupidity of his politics and why they're not going to work just reinforces the belief that politicians/media/... are overcomplicating the problems.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:53 pm

I absolutely doubt, no make that I am sure that the silent majority is not represented by a 30 year old college educated woman in the USA. Time to do some reading up on the literacy level of the average American Dragline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_ ... ted_States

If only 15% of all Americans can read at an undergrad level, I don't see the 'silent majority' having any chance of being in that group or a single woman of 30 being representative of them do you?

I'd say your silent majority more likely fits, "with the notion that the "average" American reads at a 7th or 8th grade level which is also consistent with recommendations, guidelines, and norms of readability for medication directions, product information, and popular fiction." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_ ... ted_States

I always remember being told in an early marketing course that you must aim ads at the reading level of the average 15 year old if you want the widest audience to be able to understand the message. Trump sure seems to be good at doing that.

Trying to explain a complex subject in words of 2 syllables or less is far harder than just giving them a glib and simple answer to their problem. Politics has never been about trying to educate the people.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:13 pm

Sounds like you might be worried. But neither of the links you posted concern who will vote in the next elections and what it may mean for the outcome.

I was referring to the Silent Majority as defined by Nixon, which is essentially the people who vote but are not out making noise every day. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_majority at the Nixon section.

Today, all the people making noise are the ones who support candidates like Trump. They are not silent by any stretch of the imagination. They are angry and loud, like the people who opposed Nixon in behavior and fervently supported McGovern.

The silents who will eventually vote and decide the election are the Millennials, who are not very vocal politically. There are no mainstream media outlets than cater to Millenials. They are relatively silent, but will decide any national election without a doubt simply due to their relative numbers.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:39 am

I prefer to get my news at least 30 days late, but ...I was teaching a group of 12 year old children whose parents mostly recently immigrated from Yemen and Bangladesh the other day, and they asked me if it was true that the next president might try to have them deported or forced to carry identity cards. Luckily, another teacher had apparently already discussed the matter with them, because they half-answered their own question with "No! That won't happen because we are American citizens, and we have a constitution. Right?" and they looked up at me for reassurance.

If the zombie apocalypse comes, and I am the only able-bodied nurse left in the field hospital, and Donald Trump is in need of morphine....well, it just might happen that I will picture a happy little child wearing a hijab and pink tennis shoes dancing to the Gummy Bears song and then being frightened, and the evil old repulsive idiot clown will get a hard poke in his bed-sores instead.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave » Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:38 am

Dragline wrote:Because he reminds them and reinforcing the meme that they are the "real victims" of a host of scapegoats that he will corral and neuter for them. This is what all politicians do. He's just more upfront about it than most.
This. In order to compete with the Dems/progressives, the Republicans need their version of "the 1%" to demonize and promise to punish for the satiation of the right-leaning contingent of useful idiots and perhaps seduce some of the useful idiots in the moderate demographic away from the anti-rich cult. Terrorists and people in the country illegally are low fruit. Emotions are running high wrt terrorists right now, and the miscalculation the Dems seem to be making is people are starting to hate terrorists more than they hate the wealthy. Ridiculing or denying the legitimacy of the terrorism concern is a bad strategy right now. The POTUS even made a halfhearted attempt at backpedalling from that stance recently.

I don't think Trump will win the nomination, but he'll pave the way for a hawkish guy like Cruz, I think. The good he's doing the system is to disregard the PC taboos and broaden the scope of the discussion, and to shine some light on the news media's non-neutral role. If he had just a little bit of tact and restrained from the most extreme of his statements, he'd probably have a legitimate shot at the nomination. But he appears to be one of those people who compulsively take everything one step too far.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by cmonkey » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:20 am

Just curious, but does anyone here actually vote? Not asking for who. ;) I'll take silence as a no.

I got into this kinda stuff a few years back but now I view it as the most entertaining reality show out there. Although I haven't kept up with this one in the slightest.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro » Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:15 pm

Dragline wrote: The silents who will eventually vote and decide the election are the Millennials, who are not very vocal politically. There are no mainstream media outlets than cater to Millenials. They are relatively silent, but will decide any national election without a doubt simply due to their relative numbers.
That's an interesting belief on your part Dragline but I don't know where you would get that idea from. I doubt very much that the number who VOTE will be higher than the number of 'Boomers'. I believe and someone can correct me if I am wrong, that the largest block of voters WHO VOTE, are still the Boomers. The actual largest block of those eligible to vote in the USA are those who do not vote at all. Millenials are going to overtake actual numbers of Boomers this year but not the number who will VOTE and that is what matters.

There will be roughly 75 million of each but the percentage of each voting will be something like 65% Millenials vs. 75% Boomers. Boomers will still cast more votes. So the 'relative number' of Millenials is not the factor that will decide any election. Not unless far more of them get off their ass and vote.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro » Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:22 pm

Cmonkey, you ask a good question. 'Does anyone actually vote?'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/th ... story.html

If you don't vote, what are you doing? If you don't vote, are you entitled to an opinion?

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Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline » Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:43 pm

OldPro wrote:
Dragline wrote: The silents who will eventually vote and decide the election are the Millennials, who are not very vocal politically. There are no mainstream media outlets than cater to Millenials. They are relatively silent, but will decide any national election without a doubt simply due to their relative numbers.
That's an interesting belief on your part Dragline but I don't know where you would get that idea from. I doubt very much that the number who VOTE will be higher than the number of 'Boomers'. I believe and someone can correct me if I am wrong, that the largest block of voters WHO VOTE, are still the Boomers. The actual largest block of those eligible to vote in the USA are those who do not vote at all. Millenials are going to overtake actual numbers of Boomers this year but not the number who will VOTE and that is what matters.

There will be roughly 75 million of each but the percentage of each voting will be something like 65% Millenials vs. 75% Boomers. Boomers will still cast more votes. So the 'relative number' of Millenials is not the factor that will decide any election. Not unless far more of them get off their ass and vote.
This isn't a new or original idea; nor is it mine. Here is a typical analysis/discussion: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... /?page=all You can Google hundreds of others, along with all kinds of surveys.

What you are not comprehending is the math behind elections. Elections are decided at the margins. So what you are most interested in is not all the people who you expect to vote the same as they always have, but to analyze who is NOT voting anymore and who are the NEW voters.

The Boomers will vote the same as they always do, and split their votes. So will Gen-X, if it votes at all.

Now who are the people NOT voting anymore? Largely what is known as the Silent Generation, born just before World War II. They have two primary characteristics: they are more white than any other generation -- there was negative immigration in the early thirties; and they are socially conservative, particularly as to how they viewed the role of women in society. Now why are they not voting as much? Mostly because they are DEAD. More die out each year, and in a hyper-exponential fashion as any good actuarial table/mortality curve will show you.

So who are the new voters? Millennials. The primary difference between them and those whom they are replacing is that they tend to be socially liberal and have a vastly different view of the role of women in society, especially the women among them. Thus, they are the most likely to decide who wins the next few national elections.

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