Trump - Clown Genius

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cmonkey
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by cmonkey »

@OldPro, Over 40% of the population does not vote and I would take it as a vote of no confidence. A group of people who realize that it makes no difference to their individual lives whether they vote or not. They understand that adaptation, flexibility and an ability to experience objective amusement at the individual level at whatever comes their way always trumps partisan passion.

Or maybe they are just lazy.

ether
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ether »

I think we are living in historic times if Trump gets the republican nomination. When was the last time you remember a political candidate winning a nomination and not following basic party doctrine? The current establishment has failed to address several key issues: government debt, government collapse and radicalization in the middle east, rising healthcare costs, low wages, and high unemployment. If I were a federal politician now, I would be polishing my resume because the populist wave is coming and they can't control it.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

jacob wrote:What I want to know is ...

* Trump appeals to the kind of tribalistic people who want simple answers to complex problems. Can this be Fourth Turning related in the sense that traditional politics build ever more complex political structures until "critical mass" is achieved at the margin to bring the whole complication down, clear the air, and start over. E.g. WWII, American Civil War, French Revolution, the fall of the Dutch dominion. That is, something that will happen every 80 years or so? If so, if Hillary, who is a master of wonkspeak like her husband or to be fair, the rest of the establishment, just going to delay this for another 4 or 8 years? In short, is a populist induced collapse inevitable? And will it start in the US this time?

* Since people who are inherently prone to demagogy is a relative minority, is there any chance of Trump capturing the "swing (undecided) vote" and creating a positive feedback a'la Germany in the 1930s? Pundits seem divided on this issue leaning towards either OMGWTFBBQ it's the end of the world and "whatever, he has no serious policies anyway (They did say the same thing about Hitler initially) so if he's elected the 'check and balances' will be a swift trip back to real politiks".
From the 4T book itself (first published 1997):

"A charismatic anti-intellectual demagogue could convert the ad slogans of the Third Turning into the political slogans of the Fourth: “No excuses.” “Why ask why?” “Just do it.” Start with a winner-take-all ethos that believes in action for action's sake, exalts strength, elevates impulse, and holds weakness and compassion in contempt. Add class desperation, antirationalism, and perceptions of national decline. The product, at its most extreme, could be a new American fascism."

Strauss, William; Howe, Neil (2009-01-16). The Fourth Turning (Kindle Locations 5892-5895). Crown/Archetype. Kindle Edition.

And before Trump came along, I thought it would be more likely to be Ted Cruz.


They also predicted that there would be a political realignment in this era, but I think it is taking longer than they expected. The Republicans are in the middle of it, but the Democrats really haven't so much. Part of it was Obama's surprise winning of the nomination in 2008, which left the rest of the party in a kind of stasis surrounding Clinton. It's probably a good thing that all of this is taking time to sort out, painful as it is to watch.

"The second best known cycle theory of American politics is the party realignment cycle, which coincides perfectly with the saeculum. Every forty years or so— always during a Crisis or Awakening— a new “realigning election” gives birth to a “new political party system.” According to Walter Dean Burnham, these elections occurred in 1788 (Federalist-Republican); 1828 (Jacksonian Democrat); 1860 (Lincoln Republican); 1896 (McKinley Republican); 1932 (New Deal Democrat); and 1968, 1972, or 1980 (Nixon-Reagan Republican). By this count, Burnham reckons we are now in our sixth party system. Though these realignments don't coincide with his own cycle, Schlesinger does concede their regularity. “Over the last century and a quarter,” he notes, “each realignment cycle has run about forty years.” What causes these cycles? Political scientist Paul Allen Beck suggests that children who grow up during realignments come of age shunning them, whereas children who grow up during eras of “normal” politics come of age seeking them. The result is one realignment every two phases of life."

Strauss, William; Howe, Neil (2009-01-16). The Fourth Turning (Kindle Locations 2070-2078). Crown/Archetype. Kindle Edition.

jacob
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob »

Caveat: I must admit that some of this seems like curve-fitting to me. For example, it's somewhat iffy what the correct fit was ~320 years ago. The Brits vs the Dutch? The Indian Wars? The end of the 30 year war?

The focus on year-count probably confounds the model. Cycles don't necessarily have to be the same length.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Dragline wrote: The Boomers will vote the same as they always do, and split their votes. So will Gen-X, if it votes at all.
I plan on voting several times.

My in-laws are the silent generation and have never missed a vote, but they are already talking about skipping this one. The last candidate they could relate to was McCain. They may have taken the time to vote for Biden if he ran because they understand him, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Like Dragline said, I wonder if this will be the election that sees the silent generation fade from the political scene.


Ether touched on the reason I see for Trump's popularity. I don't see all of his followers as bigots and idiots. Some are people who are fed up after the last 16 years. Many are libertarian types or swing voters who feel that Bush got us into an unnecessary war and legalized Big Brother, and then Obama did the same thing. I know many people who are supporting Trump that don't even like him, but they like that he pushes back against the politicians, he pushes back against the media, and when he's asked a question he answers it--bluntly and unapologetically. I like that about him too. He's forced the other candidates to answer direct questions instead of equivocating.

I know there are people jumping on the 'kick 'em all out' bandwagon, but I think many don't really care about his politics. They see supporting Trump as a way to stick it to their party, whichever one that is. It's a vote for "neither" more than a vote for Trump.

I find this all kind of exciting. I like the unscripted quality of the race. People are actually watching the debates, and there's finally a reason to watch the political convention.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob »

FWIW, the investment community are all "supportive" in the "there'll be blood in the streets so big profits"-sense. #rothschild #cynics

PS: If the problems get sufficiently complex, there are no more direct answers available. This is how I suspect this is part of an inevitable cycle.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

jacob wrote:PS: If the problems get sufficiently complex, there are no more direct answers available.
I agree, but I think the bigger reason they don't answer directly is so they can't be held to a position on anything.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Do you remember Perot buying airtime and explaining what he wanted to do on his whiteboard? (it must be on youtube) I want to see that kind of thing again.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob »

jennypenny wrote:... is so they can't be held to a position on anything.
Aka, optionality. However, increased optionality drives increased volatility. So this closes the cycle.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

or CYA

jacob
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob »

Same thing. The thesis is that eventually there are too many As to C. This collapses the system?

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »


SimpleLife
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by SimpleLife »

OldPro wrote:As a Canadian, I can't decide which I think is worse. Trump in the USA or our newly elected Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, here in Canada. Both are an embarrassment to anyone with half a brain, in either country.
I agree with this. Both are complete jokes as politicians.

enigmaT120
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by enigmaT120 »

cmonkey wrote:Just curious, but does anyone here actually vote? Not asking for who. ;) I'll take silence as a no.

I got into this kinda stuff a few years back but now I view it as the most entertaining reality show out there. Although I haven't kept up with this one in the slightest.
If silence is a "no" then I better say yes.

OldPro
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro »

cmonkey wrote:A group of people who realize that it makes no difference to their individual lives whether they vote or not.

Or maybe they are just lazy.
And there is the fallacy cmonkey. Not voting DOES make a difference to their individual rights. Not understanding that is perhaps caused by people being too lazy to figure that out.

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Slevin
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Slevin »

OldPro wrote: And there is the fallacy cmonkey. Not voting DOES make a difference to their individual rights. Not understanding that is perhaps caused by people being too lazy to figure that out.
Or, in my case, I understand that no matter who the president is (due to their inconsistency between talk and action) the impact on my rights is likely a stochastic forcing function and that trying to predict who will take what action is a suckers game since there is no/little accountability and no/little disincentive for making poor decisions.

OldPro
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by OldPro »

Self-justification of a decision/choice is always easy to do Slevin. It doesn't mean that justification will stand up to scrutiny however.

What I understand is that if I do NOT vote, then I have given away whatever little bit of influence I have over those who run the country. The person/s I vote for may not keep all their promises or I may not agree with their position on every single issue but at least I have TRIED to influence where my world is going.

enigmaT120
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by enigmaT120 »

Come on OldPro, don't you think complaining about stuff on the internet is enough?

Carlos
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Carlos »

jennypenny wrote:Do you remember Perot buying airtime and explaining what he wanted to do on his whiteboard? (it must be on youtube) I want to see that kind of thing again.
I remember Perot and his whiteboard. :lol:

Incidentally I am watching the Ken Burns documentary on the Roosevelts (TR, FDR and Elenor). I'd fogotten about TR's Bull Moose party competing against the Republicans. TR was such an interesting figure, likeable in so many ways but with some serious flaws (like us all)....

jacob
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob »

Polling numbers are fun! Number of people who support bombing Agrabah:

Trump: 41% support, 9% opposed
R: 30% support, 13% opposed
D: 19% support, 36% opposed

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... 121715.pdf

If you never heard of Agrabah, click on the link. I would be extremely interested in seeing a similar survey from other countries.

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