Trump - Clown Genius

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IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

I think I'm a lot less horrified by Trump than most (certainly doesn't mean I *like* him). If nothing else the near-insurrection by the professional bureaucracy (aka deep state) and media are cementing my belief that elected officials have power only insofar as they don't stray much from the script. At minimum the excessive outrage and end-of-the-world-ism are having a boy who cried wolf effect on me and I suspect the same is true for many others.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

The lack of horror increases mine.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

Fair enough. I am fundamentally an optimist and I think that separates me from most here in terms of perspective. My innate skepticism leads me to look at many things with a predisposition towards "it's not as bad as it appears" undercurrent versus "it's even worse than it appears". I may rue that one day, but for the most part it serves me well.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

The difference on the horror-meter reminds me of the Clinton-Lewinsky thing. Many conservatives, especially religious ones, were horrified at the Lewinsky affair. They found that kind of impropriety repugnant--from her age to the public discussion of debris on her dress. I remember my father (who worked in DC at the time) wondering aloud why Clinton couldn't manage to keep it zipped or at least be discreet while he was in office. When stories circulated about the stuff going on in the White House and Oval Office, my father (and many others) thought the reputation of the office of the Presidency was permanently damaged.

Fast forward to Trump. His buffoonery, shoddy performance, and ignorance of the gravitas needed in his position horrifies many (ironically) Clinton supporters, who are also horrified that conservatives aren't outraged by his behavior. Democrats are now the ones declaring the Presidency permanently damaged.

In both cases, one side found/finds the other side's tolerance of the offensive behavior abhorrent. I suppose this confirms a lot of what Haidt has been saying. Different stroke outs for different folks, depending of the flavor of the offense.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

Trump's certainly been bad for the brand of the presidency. it's now common and an everyday occurrence for citizens and pundits alike to say "fuck <president of the US>", "<president of the US> is a fat fuck", "<president> is fucking his own daughter", and so on. even under Obama, that was unthinkable - or maybe just because all the pundits were on his side? the only thing brute can think of that came close in terms of disrespecting the office was the birth certificate/secret muslim nonsense.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

@IlliniDave
Yeah, I don't think everything is going to crash and burn right away because of Trump. It just appears that Trump took office when a small part of Rome was burning and then decided to light more of it on fire instead of fighting the existing fire or at least just keeping the existing fire contained.

@Jenny
I don't think the comparison between Bill Clinton and Trump is a good one. The reason being is that Clinton's affair (probably affairs) has no bearing on anyone outside of his family and Lewinsky, while Trump's continued mismanagement of foreign and even domestic (congress, intel community, etc.) relationships does.

For instance, if John Elway is your starting QB and he cheats on his wife, he is still starting on Sundays. It doesn't impact his ability to play. However, if he begins to consistently read defenses wrong, choose the wrong receiver, make the wrong audibles, give playbooks to other teams, etc. it might be smart to draft another QB.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

@Chad -- I'm not comparing how competent either of them are or whether their deficiencies compromised their job performance. (we could do that, but I think it's a separate issue) What I'm talking about is the 'horror' factor. I can calmly discuss Trump and his failings because even though they bother me, most don't push my buttons. Other people (including you, I think) can't talk about him without getting emotional because Trump's failings are exactly the kind that push your buttons.

To your Clinton/Elway comparison, some people felt that once Clinton's shenanigans started taking place in the White House, and with youngish interns, it called his judgment into question on everything because it showed a lack common sense and a brazenness that can be dangerous in other settings. You (and many others) didn't make that leap because you don't see sexual indiscretions as anything more than a personal matter. Fair enough, but realize that there are many people who do see it as more important and indicative of how responsible a person is. That's my whole point. Different criteria -- different levels of horror.

That doesn't mean I don't know how bad Trump is, only that it doesn't horrify me to the same level as others with different political leanings and/or belief systems. A lot of Republicans I know voted for Trump as a giant middle finger to the Republican party more than anything. They aren't surprised or disappointed in his performance (except maybe on trade).

btw ... I was a lifelong Elway fan and wore the jersey every Sunday (even before they finally won the Super Bowl) and stopped after the details of his affairs came out. Doesn't mean I thought he should lose his position or be shamed out of the NFL, but I found it distasteful enough to give up on the Broncos. I also haven't watched an Eagles game since the day they signed Vick (I own pit bull rescues). I'm not imposing my judgment on anyone, but that kind of stuff pushes my buttons enough to make me change my allegiance. I'm not arguing whether that's right or wrong, only admitting to the kind of criteria that matter to me.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

@Jenny
I see the point you are trying to make. The big difference is that Clinton's problem/affair may impact decisions, but Trump's problem/decisions do impact actual current issues. This is why, while I agree I'm definitely emotional with Trump, I still see more logic in my position even with the red haze of anger obfuscating my view and making me error more in my analysis than in the past.

It does confound me a little why Trump doesn't press your buttons considering his misogynistic tendencies and strong support for various strongly misogynistic countries. Admittedly, some of them have had past support (Saudis) from our gov't, but some have been oddly verbally supported (Duterte) and wouldn't have been from previous administrations.

I used Elway because I consider him the greatest QB of all time. Though, that has nothing really to do with the example.

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jennypenny
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jennypenny »

Trump does push my button over the misogyny thing. I find him repugnant in that regard (most regards, really). And unfortunately yes, most US presidents/candidates support SA because of Iran which annoys me to no end. But as usual, I only had two choices so I picked the one closer to my position on issues important to me. I'm disappointed in Trump's performance, but I'm hopeful it will scare both political parties straight.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

Chad wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:35 am
@IlliniDave
Yeah, I don't think everything is going to crash and burn right away because of Trump. It just appears that Trump took office when a small part of Rome was burning and then decided to light more of it on fire instead of fighting the existing fire or at least just keeping the existing fire contained.
I don't even pay that much attention to Trump, it's what's going on in the government around him, especially the unelected part, that I think is interesting. As far as Trump goes, his biggest problem might be that he stoops to the level of his opponents/critics, something that's pretty "unpresedential" even when the opposition/criticism is a bit more civilized, and that is now cemented as his persona. I'm sort of surprised people who don't like his political agenda aren't pleased with this. My prediction now is that he will succeed at nothing legislation-wise, and anything he does by EO can be quickly undone by the next president. If he'd have "cleaned up good" once in the WH he could have gotten a lot done that would have been difficult to undo.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

@IlliniDave
I don't entirely disagree concerning actual legislation to be passed. However, I'm extremely concerned "horrified" by stuff like this:

Not explicitly backing Article 5 in the NATO agreement:
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-na ... e-5-2017-6

The unbelievable amount of lying. Every politician lies, but this is at levels above what others have done:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ality.html

Also, the blatant attacks on science. I could pick out a ton of other stuff.

It's the stuff that can potentially permanently change our culture and the foreign missteps with long time allies that bother me. These are bigger threats than much of his proposed legislation, not that I even remotely like his legislation.

Hopefully, as Jenny noted, this scares both parties straight, but that seems like taking your life savings to the casino and placing it all on one spin of the roulette wheel. Sure, it could work, but it's not likely.
Last edited by Chad on Mon Jun 05, 2017 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

Chad wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:45 pm
Hopefully, as Jenny noted, this scares both parties straight, but that seems like taking your life savings to the casino and placing it all on one spin of the roulette wheel. Sure, it could work, but it's not likely.
Well, that would be nice but both parties seem to be disintegrating. I don't think parties matter any more other than they act as baubles to keep the population distracted.

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

IlliniDave wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:11 pm

I don't even pay that much attention to Trump, it's what's going on in the government around him, especially the unelected part, that I think is interesting. As far as Trump goes, his biggest problem might be that he stoops to the level of his opponents/critics, something that's pretty "unpresedential" even when the opposition/criticism is a bit more civilized, and that is now cemented as his persona. I'm sort of surprised people who don't like his political agenda aren't pleased with this. My prediction now is that he will succeed at nothing legislation-wise, and anything he does by EO can be quickly undone by the next president. If he'd have "cleaned up good" once in the WH he could have gotten a lot done that would have been difficult to undo.
Sinking from incompetence into irrelevance. Well, that's probably about the best we can hope for. Flynn is gone and Bannon appears to be neutered. Here's hoping they stay that way.

Wish he would just take another junket. He seems to have less access to US television news then, and consequently does less tweeting. I can't help seeing him aging quickly before our eyes, as its become obvious he just can't keep up mentally with everything going on. It was really weird today when he criticized his own Justice Department on the E.O. litigation, as if he and Sessions did not control what it was doing.

I know a couple millennials who have recently taken jobs with Senate committees. One is working with the main finance committee. The word from there is that Mnuchin/Cohn have not had time to put together a real tax plan and were essentially forced by DJT to put out the one-pager, which they hated having to do. But more significantly, there is no action planned on taxes before health care, due to the consequences a new health care bill may have on taxes and budgets. Which means is may only happen during the Reign of Queen Dick, as one of my favorite 19th Century phrases goes.

The other one is a lawyer who speaks Russian fluently and just started last week on a Foreign Relations committee . . .

enigmaT120
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by enigmaT120 »

Chad wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:45 pm
It's the stuff that can potentially permanently change our culture and the foreign missteps with long time allies that bother me. These are bigger threats than much of his proposed legislation.
Isn't the fact that our culture has changed the reason for his election, not something he is causing? I see him as a symptom.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave »

enigmaT120 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:25 pm
Isn't the fact that our culture has changed the reason for his election, not something he is causing? I see him as a symptom.
This I think is accurate, maybe that *he* is not the symptom per se, but certainly his election was a symptom. In my moderate-length life I never remember the two political parties being so irrelevant, and the unelected apparatus so prominent. So it appears that it (the election) was a swing and a miss.

Chad
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad »

enigmaT120 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:25 pm
Isn't the fact that our culture has changed the reason for his election, not something he is causing? I see him as a symptom.
Oh, definitely. The people I personally know that voted for Trump all voted because they failed to change with the culture. Of course, change by itself is not something that concerns me. I actually enjoy it when we are moving forward. However, my concern is that Trump emphasizes the negatives (racism, anti-science, rudeness, no self-awareness, fear of foreigners, anti-trade, etc.) in the constant change within society.

@Dragline
The tax story from Mnuchin/Cohn sounds quite likely, as neither of them are dumb enough to do what was done without being forced and half-assed is Trump's MO.

The Russian speaker on the Foreign Relations Committee is interesting considering what is going on.

Riggerjack
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Riggerjack »

Which means is may only happen during the Reign of Queen Dick, as one of my favorite 19th Century phrases goes.
You lost me there. What does Trump have to do with Cromwell?
The lack of horror increases mine
As someone who doesn't support Trump, but isn't horrified, let me explain my peace and tranquility.

Trump and the Simpsons entered my life about the same time, by the same medium, so I guess it is natural that it feels like we elected the worst possible combination of Bart and Homer Simpson. But it is cartoonish buffoonery. I fully expect an "eat my shorts!" Tweet.

Now, if I thought the President was a real, powerful, leadership position, I could be alarmed. But I don't. The President is a figurehead. The powers are almost all temporary. What lasting damage has come from any of the last dozen Presidents that wasn't also endorsed by Congress? Does anyone think Trump could get ANYTHING controversial through congress? I don't. He just lacks the ability to get anything other than tweeting and outraging the left.

Since I find the left more amusing when outraged than when smug, (I'm sure they have other mental states they display in private, but as an outsider those seem to be my only options.) and since I just don't want a lot of change, I'm OK with the douchebag in office.

Now, if I feared he could be effective, I would have cause for fear, concern, even horror. But how can anyone take him seriously?

Trump attacks science? That is your concern? If science can't stand up to that level of "ATTACK", then I have misunderstood science entirely.

Trump lied? Michael Moore said it best: "How can humor be inaccurate?"

We have 3.5 years left in this vaudeville act. We have to laugh, or cry. The choice is always our own.

BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE »

Riggerjack wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:56 pm
Now, if I thought the President was a real, powerful, leadership position, I could be alarmed.
this.

thought experiment: what if all functions of the presidency were performed by a random number generator for a full term? what could the worst possible outcome be? that's what Trump should be compared to. in brute's not so humble opinion, the downside would be quite limited. brute's confident that the nukes wouldn't actually be launched if Trump sneezed on the button.

in fact, a RNG might perform pretty well if it got lucky with the business cycle and other external system variance, and got lucky a few times. brute believes most presidents (in fact, most humans) are just pulling random levers, and their intentions have very little influence on the outcomes. the ratio of causality to noise is probably 1:10 or lower. hence, a lucky RNG would outperform the most competent president with bad luck.

bryan
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by bryan »

I thought the head of the executive is the "CEO" of most agencies, "buck stops here" guy, and the guy commanding/controlling any enforcement of laws or not laws. Also, at least since I've been around, Congress has been happy to cede power to the executive. Of course it is real, powerful, and a leadership position (for better or worse)!

Dragline
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Dragline »

BRUTE wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:01 pm

thought experiment: what if all functions of the presidency were performed by a random number generator for a full term? what could the worst possible outcome be? that's what Trump should be compared to. in brute's not so humble opinion, the downside would be quite limited. brute's confident that the nukes wouldn't actually be launched if Trump sneezed on the button.
Historically, the worst possible outcome was Civil War, which President Buchanan practically encouraged, even though he did not have twitter.

Your model seems too Gaussian for me -- I think the tails are fatter. The real test will come when DJT starts declaring election losses to be illegitimate.

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