Is the country headed for disaster??

[vexed87]

@jacob - that's a great analysis of the Greece's situation.

It's maddening to see how politicians are seemingly able to get away with 'kicking the can' further down the road. I expect all countries are in the same boat.

Once you people see politicians for what they really are, do you all completely disengage with the soap opera politics? I ask because the ERE book says get involved with politics, I'm assuming local politics. Not sure what can be done on a national/international scale.

[GandK]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1435517950.php --- Good overview of the Greek "money"-situation.

Now I'm wondering why being a writer or a hairdresser is considered hazardous enough to qualify for early pension benefits. Carpal tunnel, maybe?

And three years of work vests you completely for a full pension?!

No wonder they're going under!

[SimpleLife]

Yep, that's what you get with liberal policies of taking from those who earned it via a progressive tax system, and giving it to those who didn't.

Hey guys, if you vote for me, I promise to take the excess from those who went to college, sacrificed, worked hard, started business, etc. and give it to you while you sit at home doing drugs, drinking, and popping out more babies for more benefits!

For those that do work, I will give you twice the pay the private sector pays via the UNION, and then give you a pension after three years.

Seriously though, who on Earth other than those who stand to benefit from this nonsense would vote for this? Oh, that's right...

And the reality of it is, it's much easier to be a loser in society than it is to be successful, as such, more people are drifting toward getting paid by you and me to do nothing...

Of course the politicians are going to cater to this crowd. Sooner or later this idiocy will stop in the US, just like it's about to stop in Greece. I can't wait.

[sky]

If you think that is bad, add a massive military budget on top of it all.

[jacob]

@SL - You don't even need the tax system to cause such problems. The EU monetary union allowed banks to extend credit at interest rates that were too fundamentally low for Greece. This was turned into unproductive consumption but also allowed massive growth in the exporting European countries, especially Germany benefited from tremendous growth. The Germans now want their money back but the Greeks kinda partied that money away.

Does this in any way sound familiar? US, China, Dollar?

[mfi]

Sounds familiar, but not necessarily the same. The US has (borrows in) its own currency (...and also has nukes). Greece does not have either one.

[jacob]

Greece can just refuse to pay---it's not like war ships are going to show up because the Europeans are civilized that way these days---but that would permanently lose its cheap funding (the EU monetary system).

The US can also refuse to pay (or monetize)---again no war ships, especially not with nukes---but that would also would lose its cheap funding (the Bretton Woods system).

Different details, similar predicament.

There are many kinds of unproductive behavior and many ways to fund it. Ultimately, the results are similar.

[sky]

I suspect that the US social security program is the largest social welfare program in the world, on a dollar basis. The consequences of that program collapsing would be devastating to many people, me included.

[Chad]

Fortunately, Social Security can be fixed rather easily if any politician has the fortitude. In reality, it wouldn't be fixing it. We would just be moving it back to what it was originally intended for. This wasn't retirement, but old age insurance. In 1935, the year it was enacted, the average age was somewhere in the low 60's. Now it's in the mid to high 70's (though maybe our sendentary lifestyle and poor diet will fix this for us). This really should be a major issue for Gen X and the Millenials.

http://www.actuary.org/content/play-soc ... urity-game

http://crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/

Yep, that's what you get with liberal policies of taking from those who earned it via a progressive tax system, and giving it to those who didn't.

Statements like this don't help anyone. This just creates animosity and furthers the "team" dynamic of politics of catch phrases and dumbed down rhetoric we hear in the debates.

[Riggerjack]

"Fortunately, Social Security can be fixed rather easily if any politician has the fortitude. In reality, it wouldn't be fixing it."


The reality is Social Security will always be in crisis. The system is designed to be a constant disaster. Using today's taxes to pay for yesterday's obligations while building future obligations means that when it runs surpluses (90's), it will be shamelessly raided, (that's how Clinton got a "surplus", while simultaneously increasing the national debt). And when it runs dry, they jack the tax up. It started in the 2% range, now we are running 15%.


I expect the next " fix" will be to remove the cap on the earned income subject to FICA tax. That way, we can fix the system by "eliminating tax breaks for the rich", while also not in any way taxing the rich.

Once again, in America talking about earned income and The Rich, is simply obfuscation.

[Riggerjack]

I should mention my hostility toward taxes is really that I feel unfairly put upon, more an objection to how my money is used, and in April, taxpayers rage against a poorly designed system.

I sometimes fantasize that we should move elections to April 15th, and multiply votes by taxes. In this way we could ensure the tax burden is never piled to heavily on any particular minority.


Of course, giving the rich and the productive a bigger voice in America is clearly a fantasy.

[Chad]

The main variable for social security to be in crisis is if we have a declining rate of population growth, which we currently do. If that stabilizes, which is predicted (we will see), and we move some variables around, social security would stabilize.

Also, it's not a big deal for social security to "always be in crisis." Every system of this type is always in flux, as the underlying variables are difficult to control and predict. Even a pre-paid system would have significant volatility due to uncontrollable variables. This doesn't mean we should stop doing difficult things. Though, it does mean we need to get better at doing them, which could be done a multiple of ways.

I understand your desire to have the tax money spent more efficiently.

My fantasy for voting is to have the value of a vote start to decline from a certain age...say 75 and up. The average person is completely clueless normally, let alone when age takes it's tool on the mind and they allow their life to close in around them. I don't want my grandmother (85) having any say in our future.

[jacob]

From other thread (recommended reading):

https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/ ... vernments/

H/T GandK

[Riggerjack]

@jacob, that was a fun read.

What I have noticed is the larger the organization, the less efficient it is. This goes double for government.

As an example, I own a house in Marysville, a suburb of Everett, one in Everett, and the rural house on whidbey island. They all have similar property taxes, highest in Everett, lowest on whidbey. This fits with the local governments, highest budgets per capita are in the city. But the services provided by local government are completely different. Everett has the most cops, but far higher crime, potholes, graffiti. Marysville has graffiti, some cops and crime, few potholes, whidbey, few cops, nearly no crime, and the only potholes are on private property (parking lots). This is not to say that whidbey is well run, we just had a scandal over our no fare bus system getting run into bankruptcy thru mismanagement. Of course we don't have a county symphony, or a public relations gem like a sister city in Asia with all the associated expenses, either, so maybe that's the difference...

[Solvent]

Yep, that's what you get with liberal policies of taking from those who earned it via a progressive tax system, and giving it to those who didn't.

Not every country with a progressive tax system becomes Greece. Not every country that prefers rule by conservatives becomes Pakistan.

[unno2002]

Personal opinion: The US is not “heading” to a disaster; we’re already spiraling down it.

Politicians, bureaucrats, police, agents, judges, etc., violate their oath to the Constitution. These folks used to be referred to as public servants. They now have greater privileges and “rights” than the people for whom they are supposed to be employees of.

In particular at the federal level, there are multiple entities with oversight of the same item or action, with too many of such government entities not being authorized by any plain language reading of the Constitution.

The dollar used to have value such that you could walk into a bank, turn in $20 in paper currency, and obtain a $20 gold coin. That coin contained a little less than one ounce of gold.

What does a $20 bill buy today?
What will an ounce of gold buy today?

In 1913 or so, Congress and President Wilson created the Federal Reserve Act, handing the banking cartel legal authority to sit at the top of the banking process in the US. The Federal Reserve Bank is not a government entity, it is privately owned, and it’s profits to go????

In the 1930’s, President Roosevelt (FDR), by executive order, made private citizen ownership of gold illegal. It had to be turned in for paper money. Once the bulk had been confiscated, FDR then raised the dollar rate per ounce of gold, essentially putting the entire US on “closeout sale” of something like 65% off, if you were outside the US and had gold / gold backed currency to bring to the US. International banks could still get government gold for their dollars, but US citizens could not.

Then we had President Nixon, who by executive order “temporarily” disconnected the dollar from gold for even international banks. With no physical commodity fixed exchange rate, the politicians and top bankers were free to print, borrow, and spend far more…

It appears that illegal aliens, and even the dead, vote.

The “free speech” zone, is supposed to be the entire country, not some fenced area tucked out of sight.

There is argument available that the income tax amendment to the Constitution was never legally adopted.

Corporations, fictional entities created by statute, and corporate management & employees, are granted personal immunity of civil & often criminal liability for their decisions and actions.

Those attempting to operate / initiate a business in the US face regulations / laws regarding labor, benefits, tax, zoning, EEO, pollution, the list goes on and on, impediments that do not exist in multiple foreign jurisdictions. Think even of a “dollar store”, where it is cheaper to make that stuff in a place such as China, and ship it to the other side of the planet, then to make it locally.

What is still manufactured within the US borders, and can it be manufactured from resources within the US borders? For everything we import, what happens when the sellers no longer want US dollars?

In the early 70’s, the US became a net importer of fossil fuels. What in the US works, if fuel imports are cut off? What would politicians do? What would the population demand?

It can be argued that in the 90’s the US became a net importer of food items.

It would seem the US is also a net importer of just about every other manufactured item used by US households.

If high school, mandatory in most places, more or less ends at age 18, and Social Security as a retirement fund is available at age 62, then it would appear that the workforce is expected to be those from age 18 to 62. Whether or not you are unemployed because you cannot find a job, cannot physically or mentally work, or are voluntarily not working because you may be in college, or just refuse to work, you are still unemployed. The real unemployment percentage has got to be horrible.

Can those who see the disaster in progress stop it, or even slow it down? I doubt it. Too many have their lifestyle connected to keeping the game going for as long as possible.

As others have wrote, don’t worry about what you cannot change. Just realize what is happening, utilize resources while they are available, and prepare to wait out the worst of the coming collapse. Which unfortunately could include the warning of others about “… living within just a few miles of primary nuclear targets… “

Those targets however do not necessarily have to be military facilities, or a missile or falling bomb target. The weapons might be delivered by boat, or truck, and detonated by some random suicide “bomber”.

Government promises… There are on the books debts (i.e. Treasury notes) and off the books debt (Social Security, federal pensions, medicare costs, other federal handouts, etc. As they come due, the off the books debt are coming on the books, since the politicians are having to officially borrow to pay the new off the books debt payments. Social Security is a significant example, the “Trust Fund” not actually existing in any real world terms. Every cent of extra tax, the supposedly went into the trust fund, was turned into an IOU to the SS system, and the money spent. Now, as the trust fund needs to be tapped for payments, that previously taxed & spent money must again be taxed from someone, or borrowed “on the books”.
____________________


An aspect I feel compelled to comment on… a deduction from tax owed due to something like mortgage interest and property tax deduction, is NOT a government handout. It is a reduction is how much is stolen at gunpoint from that taxpayer.

As a means to distinguish, assume some functional means where the government does not have tax revenue. All government payments are funded by either borrowing or printing currency. Tax deductions and credits cease. Handouts do not.

__________________
Again, don’t worry about what you cannot change. For me though, that doesn’t mean I won’t bring up what I believe is going on, if the issue is raised. It also does not mean I am disconnecting from the existing system, while it functions. We are however working on means to be “ok” to the extent we can while that system continues to spiral down. There are lots of “prepper” discussion groups out there, for those concerned enough to initiate some personal/family action, just pick a group with the level between “Survivalist” and “Permaculture” that fits you.

[Dragline]

So are you saying that the 19th Century was some kind of "Golden Era" that we only need to go back to for our utopian dreams to come true?

[Riggerjack]

@unno2002, welcome. If you go back thru the politics and eternal disagreements forum, you will find that most of your points are already discussed, argued, debated, and ranted about.
In particular, you will find that Felix and I have gone round after round after round on debt, inflation and money policy.
Some of your rhetoric is based on assmtions that simply aren't true. America doesn't make anything anymore is just union propaganda. American manufacturing is stronger than ever, still the largest in the world, and if it were measured independently of all the rest of our economy, would be the 4th largest economy in the world. But we don't use people as much for that, anymore. Nowadays, manufacturing jobs tend to be technical and highly paid. Hard to unionize those guys. (I am a member of 2 unions, BTW)

I'm not going to pick apart your points, as I agree with some of them, but I think you may find a lot of good information reading back thru the ground already covered here. I'd post some links, but I'm posting by phone.

[jennypenny]

So are you saying that the 19th Century was some kind of "Golden Era" that we only need to go back to for our utopian dreams to come true?

I've read several different arguments that the 19th Century was indeed a "Golden Age" in the US. It's a common viewpoint amongst preppers and survivalists. From their perspective, as well as an environmental perspective, it does seem like a more sustainable level of consumption with a more capable populace. Personally, I connect more to the literature and writings of that time. It's hard to deny the appeal of the ubiquitous pastoral images from that era in American history.

OTOH, that Golden Age was only for a certain segment of the population. Minorities and immigrants had few rights, if any. Women were still essentially property in many states. Little House on the Prairie does not accurately represent the experience of most women. For every Laura Ingalls Wilder, there were a dozen Sister Carries. Even the most conservative women I know (who think the advent of birth control, abortion, and no-contest divorce was bad for women) would never want to go back to the 19th century. Although I think the Industrial Revolution started us down an unsustainable and environmentally-destructive path, it also brought about [at least attempts at] equality. A standardized workforce meant that it was much easier to measure equality, or inequality, as it were.

I wish we could take what worked in the 19th century and what worked in the 20th century, and use it as a foundation for progress in this century, but I don't see that happening. Or, at least, I don't see it happening until after a visit from one of the Four Horsemen.

[sky]

A number of Midwestern states defaulted on loans in the early 1800s because of heavy investments in the transportation system of the future: canals.