US shale oil peaks June 2015(?) ...

[cmonkey]

This is a fantastic interview regarding what I view as the most important topic in peak oil talk - available net exports.

Current estimates are that China and India will consume all available oil exports on the world market by the year 2032 (17 years from now) given their dramatically increasing consumption vs falling net exports.

[cmonkey]

Saudi Arabia's crown prince has announced a plan to create a 2 trillion dollar investment fund to move SA into the 'post oil' era. Of course no mention that this is probably due to peaking production now or in the near future. The only reasoning is price volatility and the affect on their budget.

Part of that fund will be an IPO of Aramco.....

[enigmaT120]

Didn't Denmark already do that? What took SA so long?

[jacob]

@enigmaT12 - Denmark doesn't have a sovereign wealth fund. However, they recently privatized their national oil company in an IPO. Norway on the other hand has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... alth_funds

[enigmaT120]

Dammit. Stupid excuse for a memory that I have!

[Stahlmann]

too much knowledge for me over here.

[nomadscientist]

[TheWanderingScholar]

So what is this graph? Raw oil production from shale or...?

[nomadscientist]

US shale oil production.

[tonyedgecombe]

It will be interesting to see what it looks like after this year.

[TheWanderingScholar]

@nomadscientist: Okay, wanted to double check before I start making an ass out of myself by assuming things.

So yeah, shale production is up, however I am worried about the energy return on investment from US shale oil production as the refinement to make that oil usable is energy intensive. The financial stability of US shale production is also suspect, as many companies we're founded on debt they could not pay. Many towns here in Texas, including part of my hometown, have become ghost towns as the oil business dries up in March, with various businesses having to lease and to rent signs up front in stead of the business sign.

So small time operations will go bust, with their titles and wells being bought by larger corporations. Much how any boom and bust cycle goes in the oil industry. However the tricky part is whether or not these large energy companies go back to fracking, as most of the wells are unprofitable, dried up, or just logistical PITA to continue have open.

Solar and wind energy, are "fire and forget" resources, that easy to set up and in large numbers. During a trip to New Mexico with my Dad for a job interview, I more wind turbines than nodding donkeys in the landscape. There were easily hundreds, if not a thousands or them, each one providing energy that is continuous, does not need a crew to oversee production except when replacing a part.

Solar power does not seem to be massive here in Texas yet, however I think it is mostly because solar energy is more useful for personal energy production and not large scale like wind energy is. On a personal, domestic production level, natural gas beats solar energy as natural gas is a cheap byproduct of natural gas. So cheap, that companies have been literally paying people to take it from them. Considering most people don't care about the environment beyond a lip-service level, the cheaper product is gonna win. Especially when the more expensive option cost several thousand dollars up front. However that is natural gas, not shale oil.


In the future, US oil shale might become a smaller portfolio of the US energy production in the future, especially as even conservative voters seem to be coming towards renewable energy production or less GHG emitting resources such as natural gas. Even if they come from it as a money saving option.

US Oil Shale production depends mostly how OPEC+ works out, how the emerging markets react in how they want to get their energy, and how fast the green energy switch plays out in developed countries (i.e. a carbon tax is pushed forward).

So I doubt that US Oil Shale Production is going decline short-term (1 to 5 years) as there is still money to be made, however on the long-term, its future is suspect depending on variables outside of its control play out.

Yeah, not exactly an on topic post, and also kind of worthless but whatever. Close enough tangent.

[nomadscientist]

A load of shale oil companies will go bust, because of low oil prices, but that isn't a reflection of oil scarcity.

Oil isn't primarily valuable as a source of energy. It's valuable as the most energy dense (at least by total system density) easily handled fuel for vehicles: it's a very practical storage system for energy. People will extract oil with EROEI less than 1.0. Oil is not a significant source of electrical power in the US and so it is not substituted by wind turbines or solar panels (that wasn't true when Hubbert was writing but many people interested in this did not notice the change).

Anyway, I'm not making any strong point with the post. Oil prices will go up over time and EROEI drop. I don't think this will have the consequences Peak Oil enthusiasts believe but that's a separate issue. 2015 seems really early to call the peak on US shale though.