ISIS/ISIL

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Chad
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Chad »

jennypenny wrote:I don't think it's that irrational.
It's completely irrational. Those odds that Dragline mentioned are actually much much much lower for most Americans. The only Americans at real risk for terrorism are those that travel in certain regions and those that live in NYC and DC, and the two possible outliers are Chicago and LA (though, still unlikely). No terrorist is going to attack Cleveland, Pittsburgh, KC, etc. They probably can't even find them on a map.

Even there biggest weapon is more of an economic threat than a deadly one. (you will have to give them your email address to read it)

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/biggest- ... z3D3iicXFR

This touches on what I have said for a long time. People are terrible at judging risk.

Dragline
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Dragline »

You might prefer this formulation, jp:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-1 ... -terrorist

jacob
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by jacob »

@Ego - I think we're talking about different things. E.g. whether the motivation for the American revolution was the Declaration of Independence or simply throwing out the British? I'm focusing on the latter kind of motivation. I think the latter motivation is the driving force. I think manifestos just provide the rationalization.

Basically, to convince me of the power of a document, I would require the document to exist prior to the actions people took and prior to the environmental setup that generally/historically leads to such actions. I would also require it to be widely read/seen. Otherwise, I find it more useful/explanatory to attribute motivations to actions that are already being taken and actions that follow from conditions that already exist; and said document to simply be a rationalization of such actions.

For example, I don't believe that anyone here is pursuing ERE simply because I wrote a manifesto. I think you're doing it because you were either already taking actions towards simple living and financial independence or conditions were such that you did not enjoy/suffered under conventional career paths.

I say a manifesto provides the intellectual/religious/whatever framework. But it does not provide the motivation.

In principle, we can both be correct. I just find my interpretation more useful. Attributing IS to religion doesn't explain very much to me. E.g. it doesn't explain why this is happening now? Why it didn't happen 20 years ago (most of the ME is Sunni)? Why it happens in this particular area and not, say, Saudi Arabia? Conversely, I could see a Sunni rebellion being motivated for all other kinds of reasons than religious.

Dragline
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Dragline »

@Ego -- What you should be concerned about is that their motivation is apocalyptic and utopian, not the parameters of the underlying belief system, which might as well just be the colors on a flag. Non-religious utopian movements are just as dangerous as religious ones. Worst ones in the past century have been based on economic and social science theories -- religion without a god, if you prefer.

Regardless of the basis, a belief in a utopia can create an army of true believers ready to kill in the name of creating that utopia that become red meat for sociopathic leadership that inevitably emerges. Focusing on the particular belief system just clouds the real issue.

Riggerjack
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Riggerjack »

@jacob

You tend to look at group motivations as individual motivations en masse, (bottom up) whereas ego and chad tend to look at the group motivations as leader/follower motivations (top down).

I'm not going into which is more accurate, (I think that's personal, and subject to change), but I don't think they are incompatible. Blind men describing elephants, and all that.

jacob
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by jacob »

@Riggerjack - Another dichotomy perspective is relations vs individuals, background vs foreground, environment vs choices, eastern vs western...

I mentioned Sun Tzu above. IS, whether deliberate or not, seems to follow that art of war much better than the US has done/is doing. I think the eastern perspective is missing from the debate. I have a hard time conveying things [above] that seem obvious to me. Like how it's hard to explain the concept of water to a fish. I wonder whether that's because I'm the only non native American in this thread? What's going on here?

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jennypenny
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by jennypenny »

@Chad, Dragline--I wasn't arguing the statistics. My point was that some acts are so gruesome that they evoke more fear regardless of how miniscule the risk is. People are much more likely to die in an automobile crash than a plane crash, yet most people fear a plane crash more because the idea of being in a plane crash is much more terrifying.

My other point was that you don't have to be afraid of being the victim of a terrorist attack [I'm not] to want to prevent attacks or punish the perpetrators of such acts.

*sigh* I'll stop. I'm obviously not being clear. Maybe I'll just link to tomorrow's article when they post it.

jacob
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by jacob »

jennypenny wrote:My point was that some acts are so gruesome that they evoke more fear regardless of how miniscule the risk is.
If this wasn't the case, terrorism as a way of war wouldn't work.

Suppose 9/11 happened and people instead had thought: Well, history teaches us that that was bound to happen sooner or later because we're so involved in the ME. However, that's just the way it is. We'll just stay there and go on with our lives because that's our policy. We won't revamp our security procedures. We wont add government departments. We'll just do what we've always done because this event was expected and just the cost of our actions and way of life. It's a risk just like driving. In fact it's far less dangerous than driving or eating french fries which we do gladly because we never dwell on their risks. In particular, we won't stop flying because we know statistically that by driving instead, many more people will end up dead. And we will for sure not eat more fries either.

AQ would have been sunk right there. They would have been powerless.

"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain."

But that is not what happened...

<- That's a great [series of] books btw.

oldbeyond
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by oldbeyond »

Some countries are tribes having acquired nationhood, some are founded on ideas and some are the results of historical circumstances, like Belgium, or more interestingly, Iraq. In Iraq you had a crazy but secular dictator holding together what should logically be three independent nation states(in the Woodrow Wilson sense of the word). When that stable if far from perfect ecology went in 2003, in a move of such geopolitical idiocy that it will be long remembered, it did so forever, and Iraq has been on the brink of civil war(or over it...) ever since. Sooner or later, de facto or de jure, Iraq will become three countries. Perhaps it is more fair to say that the split has already occurred.

The US could sit this one out. There would certainly be a military response from Iran, and I'd bet that Turkey would help the kurds, to avoid a refugee crisis and a possible rebellion at home. However, this could get messy, and even if Iran et consortes should be able to tackle ISIS, you never know. ISIS might get lucky, Iran/Turkey might mess up. Even if ISIS is contained to Syria and sunni parts of Iraq, US interests will be affected sooner or later in terrorist attacks.

I think the "colonial resource extraction"-narrative fits rather poorly with actual events. Several oil producing arab nations are rich, and have "very high" HDI. How is this so if colonialism robs them of everything they have? Rather, these countries have made necessary alliances with the first world in exchange for mountains of cash. A sizable part of this cash is then funneled to religious extremists(or to the creation of whom in madrasas around the world).

Chad
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Chad »

jennypenny wrote:@Chad, Dragline--I wasn't arguing the statistics. My point was that some acts are so gruesome that they evoke more fear regardless of how miniscule the risk is. People are much more likely to die in an automobile crash than a plane crash, yet most people fear a plane crash more because the idea of being in a plane crash is much more terrifying.

My other point was that you don't have to be afraid of being the victim of a terrorist attack [I'm not] to want to prevent attacks or punish the perpetrators of such acts.

*sigh* I'll stop. I'm obviously not being clear. Maybe I'll just link to tomorrow's article when they post it.
I realize you weren't arguing statistics and that you personally weren't suggesting you were feeling this way, but it seemed like you were arguing that this feeling of fear by the general public was ok. My goal was to argue against the idea that it was ok for them to fear the new boogeyman.

@Jacob
Dune is probably my favorite fiction work of all time. I love that quote. One of the few novels I have ever re-read.
Last edited by Chad on Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

elegant
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by elegant »

The alternative solution/outcome is business as usual. This means increasing military costs (to compensate for the asymmetric attacks) which fall on the taxpayers and ultimately the productivity of the country. However, people will slowly get used to terrorism and start thinking of it as a hassle rather than the end of the world as we know it. Eventually, another dynamics enters...
This has been the case over here since the late nineties. Well, except for the new dynamics part.

Chad
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Chad »

Riggerjack wrote:@jacob

You tend to look at group motivations as individual motivations en masse, (bottom up) whereas ego and chad tend to look at the group motivations as leader/follower motivations (top down).

I'm not going into which is more accurate, (I think that's personal, and subject to change), but I don't think they are incompatible. Blind men describing elephants, and all that.
Agreed. Definitely not incompatible and both aspects, bottom-up and top-down, are part of all events of this magnitude. I do think each event has it's own mix. Some of these events are driven more from the top than the bottom and vice versa.

What makes you think I believe ISIS/ISIL is top-down? I'm not saying you are incorrect. I'm just curious what convinced you of this. What did I say about IS that makes you think that? Or, is this based on my entire body of comments in all threads? Always interesting to see how others see you or , in this case, how they see my writing.

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Ego
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Ego »

Funny, I was thinking about that top-down/bottom-up comment as well. I thought it was interesting that some here assume that isil is bottom-up yet believe that our own motivations (resource allocation) is top-down. How we see ourselves vs how we see others.

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jennypenny
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by jennypenny »

Chad wrote:I realize you weren't arguing statistics and that you personally weren't suggesting you were feeling this way, but it seemed like you were arguing that this feeling of fear by the general public was ok. My goal was to argue against the idea that it was ok for them to fear the new boogeyman.
I do think it's ok. It's normal to be freaked out when someone is beheaded. I don't think we'll get anywhere telling people not to be afraid. A better approach is to acknowledge what they fear is real, albeit highly unlikely, and then assuage their fear by explaining the statistics and outlining what reasonable action will be taken.

I think the only real solution is to treat these acts as crimes instead of acts of war, go after the perpetrators, and stop hating on groups, religions, countries, tribes, etc. We should say "We're not going to declare war on Iraq or Syria or Muslim groups. But those guys that beheaded the reporters? They're going down."

Totally OT ... I'll vote for any candidate for president who promises not to use the phrase "War on [fill in the blank]" during their presidency. Hyperbolic rhetoric has sadly become the norm.

Dragline
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Dragline »

jennypenny wrote: I think the only real solution is to treat these acts as crimes instead of acts of war, go after the perpetrators, and stop hating on groups, religions, countries, tribes, etc. We should say "We're not going to declare war on Iraq or Syria or Muslim groups. But those guys that beheaded the reporters? They're going down."

Totally OT ... I'll vote for any candidate for president who promises not to use the phrase "War on [fill in the blank]" during their presidency. Hyperbolic rhetoric has sadly become the norm.
I completely agree -- these are criminal gangs involved in acts of extortion in hopes of obtaining money and power. Stripped of the window dressing of a "cause", its just piracy and thuggery on the high desert.

And I like your voting criteria -- mine is similar: "least likely to start another unnecessary war." Babbling on about "losing face" or "not being respected" (whatever the hell that playground rhetoric means) in the international community is another red alert.

Devil's Advocate
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Devil's Advocate »

Here's the thing to do. Not in exclusion of other short-term "strategic" measures.

Launch an all-out crusade against gobbledygook religion. All religions are fairy tales. To say there is a bearded Arabic-speaking giant (or Hebrew-spouting crazed tyrant, or Sanskrit-speaking Aryan pro-war philosopher with a penchant for speaking in verse) whose giant hands protect only u and none else, how imbecile.and effed up a belief is that? Mixing religion with politics (be it IS claiming the fealty of fellow Muslims, or cutting stem cell research, or teaching Intelligent Design in schools, they're all symptoms of the same disease.

So fight this stupid superstition. With as big a budget as the military budget, on war footing. Not, of course, to the exclusion of short-term band aids.

Dragline
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Dragline »

Devil's Advocate wrote:Here's the thing to do. Not in exclusion of other short-term "strategic" measures.

Launch an all-out crusade against gobbledygook religion. All religions are fairy tales. To say there is a bearded Arabic-speaking giant (or Hebrew-spouting crazed tyrant, or Sanskrit-speaking Aryan pro-war philosopher with a penchant for speaking in verse) whose giant hands protect only u and none else, how imbecile.and effed up a belief is that? Mixing religion with politics (be it IS claiming the fealty of fellow Muslims, or cutting stem cell research, or teaching Intelligent Design in schools, they're all symptoms of the same disease.

So fight this stupid superstition. With as big a budget as the military budget, on war footing. Not, of course, to the exclusion of short-term band aids.
Launching a "crusade", eh? Sounds like a cure worse than the disease. Since people will die for their beliefs, what you are really saying is go kill them. Lots of them. Maybe set up some re-education camps, too. Otherwise your crusade plan won't work. And I think its been tried.

I suppose we could take down the Mennonites first -- they'd be easy picking. Maybe those Hasidic folks too -- now they look pretty strange, and therefore are probably quite dangerous. Thanks, but no thanks.

Or you could better define the problem and come up with a more realistic solution that does not assume some sort of utopia would appear if you just eliminate religious beliefs. This is the fundamental problem of all crusades.

Don't get me wrong -- I do believe in the separation of church and state and I have no sympathy for crazed zealots. But declaring "war on religion" is no better than declaring "war on drugs" or any number of other misguided declarations of "war" on various people and things.

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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Spartan_Warrior »

x2 Dragline. As far as impractical solutions, I find FFJ's slightly more palatable, if not any more likely to happen--the average Amurican is probably more attached to their SUVs than to Jesus.

Devil's Advocate
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Devil's Advocate »

Err... Dragline, I didn't mean a guns and guts crusade, nor calling people Richie the Lion or Bambi the Olyphant or Mickey the Mouse.

I meant a crusade of ideas, on absolute war footing, with huge budgets.

Thee Muslim problem can only be weeded out by a crusade of ideas, led by primarily Muslim liberals and perhaps some clerics, talking of the absurdity of crazed faith, of Jihad referring to inner transformation.

But don't start and stops with Muslims, that's unfair and will be seen as such.

And done on real war footing, with crusade-like zeal,and wbudget, it will.work. Long term. Nothing else will.

Meanwhile, of course, short term band aids as well.

Devil's Advocate
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Re: ISIS/ISIL

Post by Devil's Advocate »

Three levels to this war of ideas :
1. Separation of church and state. In every way.
2. Replace crazy faith with "good" faith. Outer jihad bad, inner jihad good. Intelligent Design crazy, Christian love and charity good.
3. Finally, obliterate crazy religions. Replace Krishna cults with experitial meditation. Replace blind faith with real spirituality. Or with atheism, if you prefer.

Difficult to uproot crazed militants via this? Sure, very. But that's the only long term permanent solution.

If you can kill Saddam and Osama, uproot their infrastructures, why can't you do this with enough strategy, planning, budget and resources? Establish a BSEA (bullshit elimination agency) at par with the CIA. A whole troop of rational evangelists/operatives, subtle not in your face, at par with the military.

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