Trump - Clown Genius

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George the original one
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by George the original one » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:20 pm

IlliniDave wrote:
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:40 pm
Ideally a guy like Trump would surround him self with thinkers and philosophizers and politickers so he could better chart his actions. Unfortunately that does not appear to be the case.
Bullies never surround themselves with thinkers and philosophizers. They're not interested in charting their actions.

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Riggerjack
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:21 pm

@ Jacob,
You had me until:
When it comes to dealing with issues like the economy, the financial system, fixing health care and immigration, fighting wars, dealing with terrorism, ... and doing it in a way where all the pieces fit together, I'm not looking for the best flyer, the prettiest face, or the best cook. Here my preference would be for "sophisticated, educated intelligence", because I think that's the defining talent/requirement for dealing with a nuanced complex system.
I thought you were familiar with democracy. When has "sophisticated, educated intelligence" been on the table, I must have missed it. It is just part of the antitrump reaction to mourn the loss of traits that were never an option. As though there weren't enough real reasons to resent the Douche.

We had a primary where the DNC gave us a choice between "not evil and not competent " and "both evil and competent". We got HRC because the DNC is more comfortable with evil than incompetence.

The GOP gave us Trump, because too many people were pissed at the GOP regulars.

I expect the same thing to happen to the DNC in 3 years. There won't be another HRC/Kerry type. Rejection of the mainstream is in the cards.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:35 pm

I should be clear, when talking about competence, that is literally what I mean.

Executive power is mainly about putting the right people in the right places, and sacrificing the right people at the right time, and in the right way. It's not strategic, or at least doesn't need to be.

It's knowing how to leverage someone who doesn't want to cooperate into cooperation. To force your own people to toe the line when it isn't in their interests. As well as the standard political science of appealing to the electorate.

Trump knows how to use money to leverage compliance, but that doesn't work on public employees, from above (though, clearly it works from the outside).

I honestly don't know if Trump will get it together to recruit talent to fix that. I just can't read him, and exposure to him is irritating, so I minimize it.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:45 pm

jacob wrote:
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:20 pm
You wouldn't let someone perform surgery or teach middle school just because they own a plumbing business and has three children and 12 grandchildren and sound like someone you could have a beer with. Yet most people are willing to put people in political office because "Candidate X mows their lawn regularly and knows what it's like to be a parent". How's that for cognitive dissonance?
certainly true. but brute's entire point was that this bias helped elect Trump, because he was systematically underestimated. he slipped through the filter because he didn't sound or look "intelligent" enough to be a threat.

brute is troll enough to appreciate this irony.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Campitor » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm

BRUTE wrote:
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:45 pm
certainly true. but brute's entire point was that this bias helped elect Trump, because he was systematically underestimated. he slipped through the filter because he didn't sound or look "intelligent" enough to be a threat.

brute is troll enough to appreciate this irony.
I couldn't agree more. The subject line of this thread says it all...Clown Genius. I pegged his odds at winning as high when I saw what he did at the start of the republican primaries. Everyone called the guy a joke and said he would never win. How could they underestimate a guy who made a fortune in the real estate and casino businesses which are areas known for dirty backroom politicking in order to get things done? He went hard at every opponent and wasn't afraid to mix it up with the debate moderators on live TV. His apprentice show, which had been running for years, made his name relevant in the minds of many because the show framed Trump as an executive with power that doesn't hesitate to fire subpar performers - this is a powerful narrative for individuals susceptible to manipulation. Only a "Slick Willy" style politician could have defeated Trump. No one in the Republican or Democratic field stood a chance least of all Hillary. Not even Bernie could have defeated him - Trump would have eviscerated Bernie's tax plan and painted Bernie as socialist on steroids.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Isabel » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:08 pm

jacob wrote:
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:20 pm

When it comes to dealing with issues like the economy, the financial system, fixing health care and immigration, fighting wars, dealing with terrorism, ... and doing it in a way where all the pieces fit together, I'm not looking for the best flyer, the prettiest face, or the best cook. Here my preference would be for "sophisticated, educated intelligence", because I think that's the defining talent/requirement for dealing with a nuanced complex system.
Well then, by this standards Soviet Union was a dreamworld. As someone old and smart said once: "Soviet Union was the first country in history to be founded and governed by philosophers and scientists".
Marx, Engels,Lenin, Trotzky all sophisticated and educated...

I will stay with Nassim Taleb: skin in the game is more important than elitism and education.
Most of human discoveries did not happened in academia.

Nationalism (whether bad or not) is a feature of population density. If human population in given region is too large to be supported by the environment it develops some kind of coping strategy, especially in times of resource scaricty. Ethnic genocides were already persent in the Middle Ages. In times of bad harvests weak people (elderly women=whiches) or ethnic minorities ( mostly Jews or Roma) were declared "guilty". USA were lucky until now due to low population density and large access to resources. When this will end, similar patterns as in Europe, Africa and Middle East will emerge. It will be interesting to see who the new whiches will be...

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Smashter » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:14 pm

Per Dragline's recommendation, I have been listening to the "The Fall of Rome" podcast by Patrick Wyman. It's great.

It's making me think that despite the Trump craziness we still have a loooooong way to go before things start really hitting the fan for the US Empire. This brings me comfort.

In the 5th century, Rome was fighting civil wars, barbarian tribes were encroaching in from all sides, their economy was on shaky ground, and emperors were getting assassinated left and right. They had completely lost Britain and other areas were falling fast.

And yet, despite all that, the host's view is that the Empire always had a chance for recovery and stability as long as they had a competent emperor. This blew my mind!

Imagine a future historian being confident that the US Empire still had a chance even after an economic collapse, losing Hawaii and Alaska to foreign powers, fighting multiple civil wars and preparing for Canada + Mexico to invade.

The fact that we seem so far from that reality is...kinda nice. Plus, if Donald Trump dies in office, Barron Trump is unlikely to kill all his family members, usurp the throne as an 11 year old, and then run everything even further into the ground. Our system has its flaws, but thank Xenu we still have elections. Maybe we'll get lucky and get an amazing leader sometime in the next 20 years.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:06 pm

@brute - Yes, I knew you were trolling. I left a memo with a friend as I was responding pointing that out for later just in case ;-) I know your proclivities when you get bored. In any case, we're (also Riggerjack and Campitor) really talking about two different things/trying to make separate and not necessarily mutually exclusive points. I grok that Trump was very very good at getting elected for all the reasons pointed out by you guys. He too still likes to point out how good he was at getting elected from time to time even half a year later even if winning the election no longer is relevant to actually being President, because successfully getting elected and successfully being president are two different things. That's MY point.

I will also admit that I was quite surprised Trump won, mostly because I trusted the polls which were quite unequivocal. However, it this is not the first time this "I'm a soccer-mom and my candidate is a hockey-mom and based on our common experience of driving kids around in a van and taking care of a family, we therefore both understand all complexities up to and including the entire geopolitical system, at least when it comes to shouting it out from the corner of the local bar but that's also good enough for being in office"-way of folksy thinking strategy has been pursued successfully because some smart people realized that this is how very many voters ultimately think .. or alternatively don't-think. See Palin for VP2008. Very similar! (And I got more egghead theory on top of this, but lets stay simple ... ).

What surprised me was that this strategy actually/finally worked all the way through the entire process eight years later. Mea Culpa!

My point (in my response to brute) was that the way the voters' cognitive process that picks their politicians is apparently different from the process that picks their surgeons, pilots, actors, and everything else in life... all the way up the to [D/R]NCs and the electoral college (which I understand is pretty much tied by hands and feet anyway). Hence cognitive dissonance ... even if I don't think there's much dissonance going on ... I think a combination of partisan tribalism and the Dunning-Kruger effect hides most such dissonance from the particular individuals who would otherwise change their minds. Just consider the change in attitude wrt bombing Syria depending on whether a Democrat or a a Republican is bombing random airfields for exactly the same reason (use of chemical weapons on civilians) combined with the fact that most can't find Syria on a map. Sorry, but I don't think party-affiliation should be the primary variable that determines geopolitical strategy ... but I do realize that most people/voters are acting as if it should be.

I think that this tribalist tendency is a weakness of democracy, not a strength. This is also why the US was [designed as] a republic and not a technical democracy thus being subject to various constraints (the constitution most importantly) and not based on simple majority or even "winner's authority".

PS: I always feel like I'm treading a fine line between arrogant Captain Obvious and conceited Colonel Condescending respectively whenever I bring original principles into it. However, it's been my experience that the random person either disagrees with their interpretation or they have no clue about them in the first place. However, being of a philosophical bent, I kinda think they're important though and I like the original version rather than the "living" version.

@Isabel - I call "red herring" on that Soviet argument. The first country in recent history/modern times be founded based on an ab initio [here enlightenment ideals] philosophy (not many scientists around back then but Franklin does have some original scientific discoveries and inventions to his name---it was still an amateur pursuit back then) was the United States in 1776. France followed on very similar principles in 1789. Then the Soviet Union followed Marxist principles in 1922, and finally Nazi Germany followed fascist/nationalist principles in the 1930s although the latter happened slowly in a long organic slide unlike the others which followed from revolutions (Hitler was democratically elected by the previous system.). All three were copied in various parts of the world and that's what WWII and the Cold War was all about. But today, there's pretty much just the US/French version left e.g. "checks and balances" and respect/concern for the individual as the primary two principles (=constitution in most countries) even if the other two ideas still exist on the far left and far right respectively. All other countries at least until 1950 derive from those 3 ideas tacking it onto previous beliefs: Mostly monarchist systems which either became more constitutional (thanks US/France) or just kinda gave it up eventually (thanks post-WWII social democracy, not to be confused with socialism) or a combination thereof.

And ... now there's a fourth style, namely modern China coming along that's crucial to understand in order to make 21st policy ... but I really wonder how many really have an idea of that particular philosophy... maybe by 2050?

Most of the Founding Fathers where either formally educated from the top-tier (Princeton, Harvard, and Columbia) at a time when that meant a lot more than it does today except Washington who was the leader of the Continental army (military and executive experience, confirmed!!) and Franklin who was a multidisciplinary genius---and despite Franklin's lack of formal degrees, I would say he had plenty of "sophisticated, educated intelligence". I never make the mistake of confusing institutional credentials with a combination of education, sophistication, or intelligence.

Most of these guys also had plenty of skin in the game (being in the Continental Congress and essentially being traitors to the British rule). I hope we don't have to argue whether the bar is lower today? If we have to argue that too for the sake of argument, I'm forever out of this thread :?

Note (also Riggerjack and iDave) that I'm not proposing that the optimal pick for world leader is the nerd who spent the most years adding letters after their name in various institutional programs leading to a preference for too much thinking and to little doing. What I'm saying is that leading the world requires a certain level of sophistication, because problems are complicated. Several Founding Fathers had international education or travel experience. The un-credentialed Franklin in particular. Also needed is a certain level of education, because education prevents one from being myopic or lacking nuance. And a certain level of intelligence; in which case here 125 IQ points is probably optimal because it allows one to connect with the most people without requiring too many levels of spokespersons. And those need to be the kind of IQ points to grok which people to hire and fire and direct. 125 IQ points of Egyptian Calculus skills is not what I want ... I had hoped that was obvious.

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BRUTE
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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:10 pm

jacob wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:06 pm
successfully getting elected and successfully being president are two different things
this is maybe the crux of the issue. democracy was never good at selecting for good leaders, it was just less vulnerable to being taken over and consolidation of power. its greatest strength may be its ineffectiveness.
jacob wrote:My point (in my response to brute) was that the way the voters' cognitive process that picks their politicians is apparently different from the process that picks their surgeons, pilots, actors, and everything else in life...
brute isn't sure voters use a better heuristic to determine their surgeons, pilots, or actors. has jacob really ever picked his pilot? brute hasn't. surgeons, brute would have no idea how to pick. actors? certainly no intentional deliberation involved.

these also have much lower potential to be abused, and therefore there is less incentive for power grabs. the Presidency is just about the best opportunity for power grabs in the world. which is why power hungry sociopaths compete for it.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:35 am

So any thoughts on the attempted assassination of a group of Republican Congressman? If this dude had been competent with a gun and the security detail hadn't been present this would have been much, much worse. To be honest, I'm surprised Trump hasn't been a target yet, but I'm guessing the opportunity hasn't presented itself quite so easily as a bunch of guys throwing a baseball around.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:17 am

ffj wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:35 am
To be honest, I'm surprised Trump hasn't been a target yet
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... gger-news/

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:40 pm

Hopefully, that was peak crazy with that shooting. All the talk gets people riled up and, unfortunately, the nut cases hear the venom too.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:51 pm

@Chad - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tucs ... #Political Deja vu?

D will say it's the guns. R will say it's polarization.---All in accordance with the typical value-system (see Haidt) of how people attribute cause to either the individual or society.

Of course it [a mass shooting] requires the exact combination of both. This point will likely be ignored given that it requires people to question their own deeply held values. Therefore, the stalemate will continue.

In an ironic (is that the right word?), the SHARE Act (to deregulate the ownership of silencers) was up a debate hearing on the same morning as the shooting. Duncan, who is the congressman who believed he talked to the shooter is the main sponsor of the act which included this:

http://www.guns.com/2017/06/13/hearing- ... this-week/ (from the day before the shooting)
Other additions Duncan has combined into the draft of the new SHARE Act are the elimination of the ATF’s authority to reclassify popular rifle ammunition as “armor piercing,” rolling back restrictions on the importation of certain ammunition from overseas, limiting how regulators classify some shotguns, shells and rifles as “destructive devices” under the NFA, and broadening temporary interstate transfers of firearms without having to meet a sporting clause.
Wow, just wow! It's hard to make this up. It could have been so much worse.

The hearing was postponed.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by bryan » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:58 pm

BRUTE wrote:
Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:10 pm
jacob wrote:My point (in my response to brute) was that the way the voters' cognitive process that picks their politicians is apparently different from the process that picks their surgeons, pilots, actors, and everything else in life...
brute isn't sure voters use a better heuristic to determine their surgeons, pilots, or actors. has jacob really ever picked his pilot? brute hasn't. surgeons, brute would have no idea how to pick. actors? certainly no intentional deliberation involved.
Picking a pilot can really only (for the layperson) be approximated by picking your airline. This amalgamates with other factors like equipment maintenance. Would be pretty cool if it were possible to really drill-down your exact aircraft, pilot (not that important tbh), stewardess team, etc. Meh.

Picking a surgeon can be pretty important depending on the operation. I had a major operation when I was younger and my father basically mailed my medical record/reports to various surgeons across the country (so this was before the internet..) and started a dialogue with a handful of them, gathering opinions. Ultimately he picked one, we moved, and I got my surgery. In another instance I broke my collar bone. Instead of having it surgically fixed immediately by whoever, I decided to wait a few days for the holiday when I would be home where there is a surgical practice that most high-profile professional athletes in the US use.

Picking an actor seems like a common thing for laypersons. Without even trying it seems I have a proclivity for Paul Newman, Cillian Murphy, Tom Hardy, etc. And I tilt towards being the type of person that doesn't know actors.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:05 pm

@Tyler
I remember that. I guess I was implying since he has become president.

@Chad
Apparently this guy was quite the consumer of news peddling the anti-Trump message. This lack of balance has consequences and I think we have been seeing some pushback even before this shooting, which encourages me. A lot of people are fed up with the hysterics.

@Jacob
I say its the media. When you have non-stop coverage of how Trump is the next literal Hitler, why wouldn't someone take the bait and try to kill him? Or his minions?

Obviously, there are many issues at play here and no issue can be simplified to one simple element, but factors can be measured in degrees and amplitude, and if this guy was glued to sources that repeatedly reinforced the message that Trump is evil, than we can't ignore that because he had access to a firearm, or he was mentally unbalanced. All of these factors contributed to multiple people getting shot on a baseball field.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by jacob » Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:14 pm

@brute/bryan - I think you missed my point ... or I didn't make it well.

When we pick some someone to pull out a tooth, we look to the elite of human tooth-pullers. These are called dentists and we identify them by how they have a DDS or a DMD after their name. I don't know for sure, but it could also be that "dentist" is a protected profession so that not everybody can call themselves a dentist. This way you won't have the local barber or beautician doing oral surgery. This is an example of elitism when it comes to one's teeth.

A pilot would require commercial pilot's license or some such. If you fly, you pick a company that uses such pilots; not a company that employs pilots who have 10 hours of experience in a Cessna or Flightsim-X.

When we pick movies ex ante (without knowing the actor), we're likely to pick something out of Hollywood or a professional film studio. Not a local high school production on youtube. This way we have a good chance of being right. Sure, Hollywood makes terrible movies from time to time, but amateur movies are generally terrible all the time. Put it another way ... most people would agree that you're more likely to find a good movie on Netflix than on Youtube.

This way is so obvious because picking the best humans is all automated by various procedures that just floats the most qualified people to the top.

Except, when it comes to picking politicians. The equivalent here would be in choosing who to extract your tooth, not based on whether they have a DDS or an established dental office even ... but whether you believe that "because they're good with a wrench and know how to fix cars" or "because they have a nice smile which was once used in a ad for gum" somehow translates into actual surgery skills or even the ability to tell who is a good surgeon and who is not.

Here the argument is then made that it's not the elect-auto-mechanic's job to do the actual surgery but merely to decide whether to operate and then hire the right surgeon. However, if the mechanic has nothing to go on in terms of experience or knowledge of oral surgery, how would they ever know who to hire in the first place or whether the tooth needs to be pulled? The mechanic wouldn't ... but a dental hygienist probably would have a somewhat informed opinion about both---sufficient knowledge.

This is why I'm pointing out that a functional representative democracy requires a minimum degree of education/sophistication/intelligence both in the electors and the electee. Otherwise, the system risks breaking down. There's thus an implied responsibility wrt participating in a democracy.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by bryan » Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:17 pm

Ah, yes, much more interesting point.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:51 pm

jacob wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:14 pm

Except, when it comes to picking politicians.
I agree with your general premise except in principal we are picking leaders and politicking is only a part of the job. There isn't really a specific training/education/professional background for leaders. Politicians see themselves as leaders but the recent track record of that "profession" here in the US is abysmal (and you saw the field in both primaries, it's not like Trump prevailed over Abraham Lincoln or FDR), so we got one from the business world in the White House this time. What's the quip: insanity is repeating the same action and expecting a different result? ;)

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:03 pm

ffj wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:35 am
So any thoughts on the attempted assassination of a group of Republican Congressman? If this dude had been competent with a gun and the security detail hadn't been present this would have been much, much worse. To be honest, I'm surprised Trump hasn't been a target yet, but I'm guessing the opportunity hasn't presented itself quite so easily as a bunch of guys throwing a baseball around.
There's an irony in it. People who spent a lot of time alleging the very existence of Trump would embolden the KKK and Nazism to overrun the entire country don't seem to see the same sort of connection when an almost hate-driven media rails 24-7 against Trump and anyone associated with him and subsequently the anti-right movement grows increasingly violent. They sell it as a gun control issue. I can only imagine the narrative that would be out there if the guy was from Alabama and shot up a bunch of Democrats.

Hopefully the guy just had some issues and isn't the first in a series of people poised to go over the edge.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:30 pm

@dave
Since the shooter was fond of MSNBC and Maddow and company, I glanced at their web page a minute ago. Nothing on their possible culpability, and the only story I could find (barely on the front page) about the shooting was Trump's statement on the congressman's condition. Plenty about Russia though. Plenty about Trump. :roll:

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by Chad » Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:57 am

Or, the hysteria is only a small part of this. It's not like there wasn't hysteria during Obama, it just wasn't covered as much by the big news agencies except Fox (definitely heavily covered by secondary news sites). I would assume we could probably go back and find statements on here suggesting this lack of coverage was disturbing. Now it's disturbing because of too much coverage? I'm not arguing either way, just pointing out incongruity.

I'm also not suggesting I'm above reproach on being incongruous with my statements. Especially, immediately after the election.

There are plenty of assassination threats, attempts, plans, etc. on every president and to a lesser extent on congress:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassina ... rack_Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threateni ... ted_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... _in_office

Or, the hysteria is the same on both sides: By no means is this the first one against a someone from congress or is it limited to one party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tucson_shooting

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by IlliniDave » Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:33 am

ffj wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:30 pm
@dave
Since the shooter was fond of MSNBC and Maddow and company, I glanced at their web page a minute ago. Nothing on their possible culpability, and the only story I could find (barely on the front page) about the shooting was Trump's statement on the congressman's condition. Plenty about Russia though. Plenty about Trump. :roll:
Not a surprise. The leaks about the special prosecutor investigating DT for "obstruction of justice" arrived just in the nick of time to save them from having to do follow-up coverage on an awkward story. Funny how often that seems to happen. :)

I should clarify that I'm not blaming the media/celebrity wing of the Democratic party for this, just pointing out what I see as the irony. There were a lot of people who disliked BO, and there was an underbelly of expression out there I found clearly objectionable, but it was a different beast than what we're seeing now with the widespread actions (some downright vile) of public figures, celebrities, and persons affiliated with news media towards the current administration. To find lunatic hatred of BO you pretty much had to go looking for it. You'd have to go nearly off-grid to avoid the lunatic hatred of Trump.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by ffj » Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:21 am

@Chad
I'm pointing out the scale and magnitude. Your incongruity argument is weak tea in lieu of the sheer volume of calls to violence against Trump or his supporters. It is flat out irresponsible not to take into account that this amped up atmosphere has repercussions.

@Dave
Spot on.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by enigmaT120 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:10 am

Ted Nugent thought it was pretty funny to (hopefully) joke about hanging Hillary and lynching Obama.

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Re: Trump - Clown Genius

Post by BRUTE » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:37 pm

brute has changed his position on abortion, and has reached a compromise - against-choice and against-life. all humans MUST have abortions.

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