C40 wrote:Ok, I made it through your entire post.. The thing is, you're talking to people here like you think they are idiots.
Everyone here already understands that having a wider safety margin between income and spending means a higher success rate.
This comment sums up much of my feelings regarding the warning and the original post. ER types tend to be compulsive planners and optimizers. We obsess over optimizing our cash flow and expenses (sometimes to the extreme ). Most save in excess of 50% of their income and over the course of many years demonstrate strong dedication to FI and self-reliance. For the past 8 years I've saved in excess of 50% of my income with my savings rate peaking at 89% last year.
This isn't to say that ER types are immune from the normal bad outcomes that come with life. I believe however that the ER personality is more adaptable and capable of overcoming adversity such that a warning of homelessness or becoming a bum is uncalled for. If Jacob lost his savings I have no doubt that he could figure out a way to feed and house himself and maintain his happiness.
After monitoring my expenses and cash flow for 10 years and demonstrating financial acumen and discipline would anyone believe that I would for example spend more than my income in an unplanned fashion such that I would find myself expectantly penniless at 70? Black swan events are a bigger worry for me.
I plan to spend down my capital because I do not have children and have no obligation to leave an inheritance. That's the plan at least but it's hard to switch from saving to spending. I will buy long term care insurance and probably an annuity to give myself some guaranteed income as a mortality hedge. Knowing my personality and reluctance to be extravagant with money I will probably start gifting my surplus to my nephews for college if they show themselves to be dedicated and responsible.