Electric self driving vehicles

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sky
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Electric self driving vehicles

Post by sky »

https://shift.newco.co/this-is-how-big- ... b843bd4fe0

How will a shift to electric self driving vehicles affect your life, your portfolio and the place you live?

Assuming the author is correct, the shift starts in 2021 and is complete in 2030.

Scott 2
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Scott 2 »

I think the author is underestimating how attached people are to their cars, and overestimating how quickly the US automotive industry will change.

I'll probably be a decade behind the curve in adopting a self driving car. I hate to drive and understand the technology. Handing control over to a computer program scares me.

I don't expect dramatic shifts in my investment approach as a result, but I index. I live near a highway, I would love a switch to fewer vehicles on the road, even better if they are electric. I bet my property value would go up.

Riggerjack
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Riggerjack »

Yeah. I wouldn't encourage anyone to take up long haul trucker, as that is the low hanging fruit.

But even that will be slow to transition. Once the tech is correct, there is still the issues with insurance, acceptance, and accidents. People just aren't as accommodating to change as " visionaries" would like. I don't expect there will even be any conversions to the tech. Old tractors will wear out, and new ones will come with the self driving systems.

There will still be the occasional truck stuck sideways blocking everything, and tech support trying to move it from India.

Fatalities are inevitable, and the lawsuits will go on and on.

A few high profile hacking incidents will slow advancement to a crawl.

I think the conversion to self driving vehicles will take 20 more years than suggested.

George the original one
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by George the original one »

If you had the chance to drive the train or plane instead of merely being a passenger, which role would you REALLY choose for a trip?

Scott 2
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Scott 2 »

My self driving fears relate to inclement weather conditions and irrational humans. I think those are incredibly difficult problems to solve for. I also prefer the driver of my vehicle share the risk of death. I'd run over two bikers to avoid going off a cliff. Would my self driving car?

Those fears apply to a plane as well. Forget that.

Trains are pretty huge, go in a straight line, and there are few bridges or ravines in my area. I might ride in a self driving train. If we include trams, electric street cars and subways in the train class, I'd guess most already have.

Dragline
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Dragline »

It probably won't affect me that much, although it would be nice if there was less traffic on the road as a result. I agree that there are difficult legal and cultural barriers to be resolved -- the technological ones are easy by comparison.

The most difficult barrier may be the possibility that self-driving vehicles could be used for terrorist acts like the OKC bombing. This factor alone may restrict their usage, especially in the US where fear of such possibilities is irrationally high.

ducknalddon
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by ducknalddon »

Dragline wrote:
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:38 pm
The most difficult barrier may be the possibility that self-driving vehicles could be used for terrorist acts like the OKC bombing. This factor alone may restrict their usage, especially in the US where fear of such possibilities is irrationally high.
Didn't the technology in the truck in the German Christmas Market incident stop it becoming much worse? Instead of just hiring a truck or van terrorists would have to hire it then hack it to do what they want.

jacob
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by jacob »

The standard rule is that it takes about 40 years between prototype and widespread commercial implementation.

I'd presume/speculate that implementation will be in eventually declaring certain roads (like freeways or primary commuter routes) to be "computer-only". This will be easy and comparable to creating toll roads today. This would avoid the figurative collision between human drivers and computer drivers.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

One of the huge gains in efficiency will be due to the fact that the self-driving cars will be able to know and coordinate with the destinations/speeds etc. of other self-driving cars. Also, they will be able to be manufactured in forms that do not need to consider human physiology. I would also expect a good deal of modular multi-functionality. For instance the top of the mobile pod that transports a good could become the storage or human interface unit when it arrives at destination.

Chad
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Chad »

Implementation will definitely include outlawing human driven cars in certain areas like freeways. Then we will see major cities like NYC and SF outlaw human drivers inside the city limits, and insurers start to raise their prices. This probably happens on the articles timeline. Common adoption is probably at the 40 year mark and a few very rural areas and those without smart phones (Jacob/two factor) may be longer.

One variable that could speed up the process is China. If they decide they want to win this economic battle and their government starts pushing hard, it would probably spur the US to speed up their adoption. Especially, if the companies promise to build manufacturing facilities here. Even though that doesn't matter that much in the long run, as this steel mill demonstrates.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... in-austria

Concerning the insurance. I know someone who interviewed for an executive level position with an insurance company and the CEO was very concerned with how these cars would change the business.

bryan
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by bryan »

Chad wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:10 am
China. If they decide they want to win this economic battle and their government starts pushing hard, it would probably spur the US to speed up their adoption.
:lol: :lol: I don't see anything spurring the US into action other than a crazy new weapon system or energy system being discovered. US is just fortunate to have so many corporations and consumers such that if a profit is to be made, it will be made. No thanks to the government and their lack of investment.

What about self-driving cars was the CEO concerned about? That all these cars will be owned by fewer parties (leasing model for consumers) and those parties can self-insure or have a better footing for negotiating w/ the insurance companies?
Last edited by bryan on Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Toska2
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Toska2 »

I look around me and see the stark contrast between industrial/commercial and consumer products.

Besides here, I know very few people who base their purchase on price or value. Housing, cars, clothing, education, jobs and food are all subject to image and ego. Prices and ownership are higher in this type of culture.

Maybe wages will fall or fuel prices rise dramatically forcing people into communal car program/companies. I see public transportation popular in Europe with gas ~$6/gallon. Public transport could be a swarm of 12 passenger vans vs two buses. This would cut into businesses revenue. Cost per passenger mile decreases significantly with more passengers ;)

With the costs of ownership going down and eco-friendly of electric I see a vehicle that is drivable and autonomous. Give up control in larger cities and drive elsewhere. At what point is it in society to have this as public transport instead of companies?

Yes, I am arguing for and against the timeline and predicted outcome. I'm still waiting for my compacted graphite iron brake rotors and engine.

bryan
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by bryan »

Toska2 wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:05 pm
Housing, cars, clothing, education, jobs and food are all subject to image and ego. Prices and ownership are higher in this type of culture.
What do you mean ownership? I would think in this culture leasing would be more likely than owning? You also allude to people being forced into compromises further down.
Toska2 wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:05 pm
With the costs of ownership going down
I suspect it will go up, not down? Is that what you meant or are you saying that in an economic depression with smaller wages the costs will fall?
Toska2 wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:05 pm
At what point is it in society to have this as public transport instead of companies?
It's a meandering path.. Uber was able to be cheaper than taxis in part because they didn't have to conform to regulations like being handicap accessible. I don't think America will (other than a few good local governments) do much to improve public transit systems, even new-age ones. Instead it will be companies re-shaping the efficiencies and business models while ditching the social safety net type stuff e.g. subsidized rides for young/old.

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jennypenny
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by jennypenny »

I can picture them taking off in states like Florida where there are entire communities of seniors, most of whom probably shouldn't be driving themselves around. Anyone disabled in a way that makes driving physically impossible would also be a potential early adopter.

The other appeal I can see is with over-scheduled parents who need to get their kids to activities and have a conflict or can't/don't want to miss work. A self-driving vehicle would be a boon for that demographic. (I assume that kids over age 12 or so could operate them with some kind of code from their parents?)

Toska2
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by Toska2 »

Ownership in the current society.

Take housing here and now. Instead of small and efficient apartments being built today I see hundreds of nearly identical large houses; San Diego, Phoenix and Seattle. Ie prices and ownership higher

Cars. Who buys a base model? Why are there muscle cars, sports cars and convertibles?

Clothing. For the price of three Armani shirts I can go to Goodwill and outfit myself for years.

Yes. Image and Ego rule the pocketbook. "This is mine."


Cost of ownership will go down because electric cars will last longer and be cheaper to maintain.


I allude to being forced into a more communal society because of automation. It's not going to be a smooth transition.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Several years ago I predicted that in my lifetime (30-40 years) I would see pampered pets being transported to dog-park play-dates and grooming salons in self-driving cars.

sky
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by sky »

Companies like Uber and Lyft will be the first to use electric self driving vehicles, so the people that use Uber and Lyft will be the first people that will benefit from lower cost of transport. There will be a rapid capitalist race to the bottom so that eventually the cars will be cheaply made of light weight plastic so they can be sprayed out if a customer makes a mess. In cities, the AI taxis will run at a maximum of 35 miles per hour, because it uses less energy and smaller motors are cheaper. Self driving cars will constantly tailgate any human driven cars, unless the human exceeds the speed limit. An important algorithm will be pothole detection and logging, and you will see the AI vehicles dodging left and right to follow the smoothest path on the road to minimize maintenance to the vehicles. They will upload newly detected potholes to the corporate database so that all AI vehicles in the company know where to zig and where to zag.

Traffic lights will flash green on all four sides because AI vehicles will coordinate by wifi and will not slow down for intersection. As long as other vehicles do not come within 1 centimeter of the vehicle while passing through an intersection, it will be a successful near miss algorithm calculation. When human driven vehicles approach a light, a transponder will request that the light activate, because humans are not reliable enough to use the near miss algorithm. Some passengers in the AI taxis will get epileptic fits and panic attacks until they get used to the near miss algorithm.

There will be more parking spaces available and land will be more densely developed in cities. A class of people who do not own vehicles will enjoy far greater mobility than those that own vehicles. Mobility in the sense of being able to move within the city, but also between cities and countries. Generally health will improve because there will be a walk to a pickup point, and once at one's destination there will be a preference to walk from point to point with the pickup point at some distance from the dropoff point (as compared to returning to where the car is parked).

Because more travel is powered by electricity rather than gasoline, the demand for gasoline falls. While this would indicate a drop in the price for gas, the loss of market will cause increased costs related to reduced scale of economy of production. People living in rural areas where there is no AI taxi service will have to pay much higher costs for gas, leading to an increase in privately owned electric vehicles, both autonomous and human driven. The cost of transport using these vehicles will be much higher than the AI taxi system so there will be demands to subsidize rural residents with some type of socialist benefits for those living in the country.

At the same time that electric self driving vehicle technology is transitioning into place, renewable off grid energy will become cheaper than grid energy, which will cause another major disruption in the economy.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by black_son_of_gray »

I dunno, I find that article and many of the comments here to be very optimistic.

For example, the article focuses on how much it will cost to operate electric cars (with current prices?), but how much does it cost (energy-wise) to make one? Where is that energy coming from? Will that energy be cheap in the future (or out of our carbon budget)?

I would guess that if everyone switches to electric cars, then there would be a massive increase in electricity consumption... which has to come from some place. Right now, that place is typically fossil fuels, which humanity eventually needs to stop using (or at least deal the with the byproducts). Can the current grid handle that? How long would it take to implement a smart grid? Is that politically possible (US: what with both sides hating each other regardless of what they propose, this would probably turn partisan for no particular reason)? Electric cars are also heavy, which wears out roads faster. How's that infrastructure bill coming along? Is massively-increased electric car traffic going to be taken into account, or will there be an infrastructure lock-in that slows implementation down for a few decades?

I think Jevons's Paradox is also highly likely: If travel is trivially cheap, people would probably increase their travel to the point of it being expensive again. So many unnecessary trips would negate all the the supposed traffic benefits by flooding the road with cars. Also, if traffic dramatically decreased due to efficiency, then people would live further out, make more trips, etc., until it was unbearable again. Higher efficiencies on the road (e.g. chaining together car trains, etc.) is great... until it isn't. Traffic flow is highly non-linear and inelastic - add a single car to the highest flow rate on a road and the flow starts to sputter and spasm. "But we'll have algorithms that can prevent that!" Right, like we have algorithms right now that don't play well with each other because the are proprietary. Do you want a flash crash during rush hour? I'm not sure that these kinds or problems are as simply solved as "we'll develop a better algorithm". The systems these algorithms need to operate have lots of nonlinearities which change rapidly over time. Computers can't solve EVERY kind of problem within milliseconds.

Which isn't to say that I don't think some of these predictions won't come true, but people are talking about this like it is an inevitability well within 10 years.

cmonkey
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

Post by cmonkey »

The technology already exists, we are pretty much beyond prototype now, the only barriers to this becoming widespread are cultural, political, and perfecting the technology for special situations (inclement weather, Trolley problem, etc...). The 40 year rule probably comes from shifting generational constellations, so it will likely be Generation Z(ombie) (who is currently immersed in technology) coming of age and next my children's generation growing up with it (who will likely spend 99% of time indoors/plugged in) that move to adopt stuff like this. It won't scare them at all, in fact, humans driving cars will probably be scary to them.


Besides TSLA, are there any other stocks that would be good to own as a result of this shift?

sky
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Re: Electric self driving vehicles

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