Swedish housing woes

All the different ways of solving the shelter problem. To be static or mobile? Roots, legs, or wheels?
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oldbeyond
Posts: 338
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:43 pm

Swedish housing woes

Post by oldbeyond »

I'm considering buying an apartment, which in Sweden means buying membership in a housing cooperative. Basically I'm forced into buying for lack of rental options(long queues to public housing, little investment by private landlords due to policies "favoring" renters). I'm agnostic towards the housing market, but I don't really expect to make much out of the investment. Possibly I'd be buying close to the top of a bubble. Still, the lack of supply should lend support to the market over the medium term at least. Anyways, I'm mostly concerned about managing downside risks. Me and my girlfriend would be buying the apartment together. I have some questions I've been pondering:

1) I've been considering buying a 2 bedroom apartment instead of a 1 bedroom. The disadvantage is the obvious cost of "buying more house". The advantage is being able to weather out a bear market, even if we have kids, as well as reduced transaction costs(we're planning on kids in the next 2-3 years). I feel like a sinner for even thinking about violating a core ERE tenet here - thou shalt live in small space ;)
2) Cost would be 4-5 times annual net income for a 2 br, 3-4 for a 1 bdr. Add 400-600 dollars a month in co-op fees(which includes water, heating, cable TV, sometimes internet but never electricity). We have roughly 1.5 times annual net income in assets. Am I crazy considering buying at these prizes? There's no property tax.
3) There's no 30-year mortgages around here, most people choose a variable interest rate adjusted every 3 months. The longest term is 10 years, but there's no possibility of refinancing. Or you're free to, but then you have to compensate the bank for lost interest, so it's pointless. This applies if you sell before the mortgage expires, too. I'm thinking about getting a 5-year fixed, paying down the minimum while hoarding cash/assets. 15 % down is required. We should manage a 50 % savings rate, in which cases assets~mortgage when the mortgage term expires. We're just starting out in our careers so we might see some salary increases along the way too.

Does this sound like a reasonable plan? The main risk I see is falling house prizes coupled with one of us losing our jobs(likely me since my girlfriend has a very stable job market). Of course there's opportunity cost, but getting something cheaper would mean long commutes or a much more volatile job market for me. Also there are personal reasons for wanting to live here.

henrik
Posts: 757
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: EE

Re: Swedish housing woes

Post by henrik »

Are you sure about the mortgage limitations? I am not in Sweden, but I have a mortgage from a Swedish bank. It's 30 years, adjustable rate (6 month base rate + fixed margin). The rate is adjusted twice a year. If I want to pay early or refinance, I have to notify them 3 months ahead. I have to compensate for lost interest only if I need to do it faster than that and only for up to three months worth.
It is different for fixed interest mortgages -- in that case there is indeed a compensation "fee" that is calculated based on a formula that essentially guarantees them the difference between the interest they would have earned from you and the interest they can earn from the next guy taking out a mortgage. I guess the assumption here is that people want to break a mortgage contract only if lower interest rates have become available.

Also, I know someone who had a 40 yr mortgage for an apartment in Stockholm, but that was >5 years ago, so obviously things can be different now.

Forskaren
Posts: 189
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: Swedish housing woes

Post by Forskaren »

I guess the worse thing would be to buy something you soon have to move away from.

I live in a rental appartment in a village, so I don't worry about a real estate crash.

oldbeyond
Posts: 338
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:43 pm

Re: Swedish housing woes

Post by oldbeyond »

I've really negletcted my thread! I actually ended up snatching a rental for ~20 % of net income in housing expenses(rent+insurance+utilities) by a decent bit of luck and a willingness to pay extra for a new(ish) one. Buying a newly built apartment of similar size in the same neighbourhood would cost me ~5 x net income, and the monthly cost would be ~15 %, including 5% opportunity cost on the down payment, and that's with an effective mortgage rate of ~1 % after the mortgage tax deduction and HOA-fees that are likely to rise. Very happy I avoided that.
henrik wrote:Are you sure about the mortgage limitations? I am not in Sweden, but I have a mortgage from a Swedish bank. It's 30 years, adjustable rate (6 month base rate + fixed margin). The rate is adjusted twice a year. If I want to pay early or refinance, I have to notify them 3 months ahead. I have to compensate for lost interest only if I need to do it faster than that and only for up to three months worth.
It is different for fixed interest mortgages -- in that case there is indeed a compensation "fee" that is calculated based on a formula that essentially guarantees them the difference between the interest they would have earned from you and the interest they can earn from the next guy taking out a mortgage. I guess the assumption here is that people want to break a mortgage contract only if lower interest rates have become available.

Also, I know someone who had a 40 yr mortgage for an apartment in Stockholm, but that was >5 years ago, so obviously things can be different now.
You're in the baltics(Estonia?), right? It's interesting how there's a culture concerning mortgages that differs so wildly between countries for little apparent reason(of course there are taxes and laws but there seems to be something else at work here, too). There are some adjustable rate offerings here, but for 5-10 years max.
Forskaren wrote:I guess the worse thing would be to buy something you soon have to move away from.

I live in a rental appartment in a village, so I don't worry about a real estate crash.
It's really in the top four cities(with surroundings) were things are outright crazy in terms of prize to income ratios. I'm quite tempted to move away from here in the medium term, but there's always the job market to consider before FI.

Forskaren
Posts: 189
Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:04 pm

Re: Swedish housing woes

Post by Forskaren »

Good that you have found a reasonable place to live. A lot of people seem to be buying the biggest and most expensive apartment or house that the bank approve, since prices "always increase". I got the feeling that the upside right now is quite limited and that it could be a big downside if something happens to taxes and employment.

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