Hi,
I'm stuck on a decision that I can't seem to make. Currently I live in a apartment (in the Netherlands) that cost me 119000 euro. Mortgage is the same amount and my total net worth is also around that number, no other loans. If I were to follow Jacob's strategy, I would keep living here, is this is about the cheapest living space you can find here, apart from sharing with a fellow renter.
I'm very worried about peak oil. The common advice is to prepare yourself by (amongst others) growing food yourself. This is something I would want to do. I'm especially interested in permaculture, like described in this documentary:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xShCEKL-mQ8
(I think Jacob linked to it some time ago).
However, to properly do this, I would need to buy another house plus some land. Something decent would cost around 400000 euro here in NL. I can cover 25% of that myself and would need a mortgage of around 300000, which I could pay off in about 10 years I think. Buying a house would also enable us to install solar panels, solar water heater, etc, which is not possible in our apartment.
The housing bubble still hasn't burst here, but I'm afraid at some point it will, despite everybody else screaming the opposite (real estate agents, etc). I'm especially worried when I hear something like this:
http://www.transitionnetwork.org/blogs/ ... atic-earth
(I think Jacob also linked to this).
So...what to do? Keep living cheap in our current home and saving hard cash? Take the risk, buy the house and start farming? Other possibilities?
I would very much appreciate your advice.
Kind regards,
McTrex
ERE or preparing for peak oil?
Keep living where you are and save cash IMO 
I am from England, another high-cost country. I think you may either be able to pay off the mortgage in 10 years or "install solar panels, solar water heater, etc," because you will be short of capital
I have paid my mortgage - but to do that ahead of time means you have very little spare cash left for capital investments, so you may struggle to realise the dream.
You say yourself
The housing bubble still hasn't burst here, but I'm afraid at some point it will, despite everybody else screaming the opposite (real estate agents, etc)
Well, real estate agents would say that, wouldn't they. I bought a house at the peak of a boom in 1988. It was the worst personal finance decision ever in my life
http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk/2 ... a-house-2/
Very few people tell the story of losing money on houses. It happens more often than you hear.
Do you have allotments / kitchen gardens in NL - you can learn on a smaller scale with these. When I was on the train in NL I saw many small plots like this near to the railway tracks, like you often see in the UK too.
I am from England, another high-cost country. I think you may either be able to pay off the mortgage in 10 years or "install solar panels, solar water heater, etc," because you will be short of capital
I have paid my mortgage - but to do that ahead of time means you have very little spare cash left for capital investments, so you may struggle to realise the dream.
You say yourself
The housing bubble still hasn't burst here, but I'm afraid at some point it will, despite everybody else screaming the opposite (real estate agents, etc)
Well, real estate agents would say that, wouldn't they. I bought a house at the peak of a boom in 1988. It was the worst personal finance decision ever in my life
http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk/2 ... a-house-2/
Very few people tell the story of losing money on houses. It happens more often than you hear.
Do you have allotments / kitchen gardens in NL - you can learn on a smaller scale with these. When I was on the train in NL I saw many small plots like this near to the railway tracks, like you often see in the UK too.
The housing market in the Netherlands has been suffering for quite a while. Here's a recent update:
http://www.bouwenwonen.net/news/read.asp?id=25874
The RSS feed of that site is a handy way to keep an eye on what's happening. (warning: some of the posts are about Belgium).
I'm living in Belgium, where the market seems to be recovering for the time being. I've sold my big house a couple of years ago and am now renting. I would like to buy an inexpensive small one after a market crash but nobody knows when that will happen.
These decisions are very hard, risky and personal.
http://www.bouwenwonen.net/news/read.asp?id=25874
The RSS feed of that site is a handy way to keep an eye on what's happening. (warning: some of the posts are about Belgium).
I'm living in Belgium, where the market seems to be recovering for the time being. I've sold my big house a couple of years ago and am now renting. I would like to buy an inexpensive small one after a market crash but nobody knows when that will happen.
These decisions are very hard, risky and personal.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
I think the financial system or at least the economic system will survive quite a while. In other words, what passes for monetary transactions between people will be able to handle a shortage of energy because there is still plenty of discretionary energy usage going on. What this means is that as oil prices go up, people stop driving their dog over to have its nails clipped. This cuts demand and drops prices again.
We're still at the stage where people can drive less. Get a smaller car, etc. We're not yet at the stage where energy is being diverted away from food production.
The major thing I'd worry about is cost of heating the home. Even then, there are things to do. People can survive in tents in the arctic. (They just don't know how.)
For now, I'd stay in the apartment and look for ways to practice gardening/farming.
We're still at the stage where people can drive less. Get a smaller car, etc. We're not yet at the stage where energy is being diverted away from food production.
The major thing I'd worry about is cost of heating the home. Even then, there are things to do. People can survive in tents in the arctic. (They just don't know how.)
For now, I'd stay in the apartment and look for ways to practice gardening/farming.
Hi,
Thanks for the replies.
@ermine: We do have allotments here, although there are waiting lists for them. Not sure how long these lists are. On the financial side of things we are lucky to be able to save at least 30000/year (~50%). That gives us a lot of options, but also the possibility of making the right move at the wrong time, so to say.
@Marius: "Nobody knows when that will happen". Amen, I've been thinking since before 2000 that houses were way overpriced and due for a correction...I'm still waiting for that to happen. You really wonder whether you are correct in expecting something to happen, or whether you just have a flaw in your reasoning. It's like what Keynes said: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent". How long is long?
@jacob: I've also been thinking about the amount of energy usage we could save if we'd be more efficient. Imagine if people would have a wake-up call en masse, how much energy usage could drop if we only would use it when necessary. But how to get people so far as to reduce their unnecessary energy usage. I have to admit that I'm still part of the problem. Currently, I drive a leased (through work, so it doesn't cost me a dime) Mitsubishi Grandis, which is a big, heavy MPV. At the end of the year, the lease contract will expire and I will switch to a much smaller Volkswagen Lupo 3L. It is literally twice as efficient and will actually earn me money. The amount I receive from my employer will be about twice the costs. (Yes, I need a car, because my clients are all over Holland. I would love to bike to work, but it's simply not possible. Going by train works with some clients who are close to railway stations.)
@HSpencer: I would love (and am thinking about) a small house on a plot of land. Problem is, Holland is a small, densely populated country, where land and houses (especially free-standing ones) are very expensive. Add to that the geographical distribution of work, mainly in the west of the country, and you get very expensive houses in the west, close to available work, and very cheap houses with lots of land in the east, were there is less work. Living in the east and working in the west is pretty much impossible because of traffic, despite the small distances.
Thanks for the replies.
@ermine: We do have allotments here, although there are waiting lists for them. Not sure how long these lists are. On the financial side of things we are lucky to be able to save at least 30000/year (~50%). That gives us a lot of options, but also the possibility of making the right move at the wrong time, so to say.
@Marius: "Nobody knows when that will happen". Amen, I've been thinking since before 2000 that houses were way overpriced and due for a correction...I'm still waiting for that to happen. You really wonder whether you are correct in expecting something to happen, or whether you just have a flaw in your reasoning. It's like what Keynes said: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent". How long is long?
@jacob: I've also been thinking about the amount of energy usage we could save if we'd be more efficient. Imagine if people would have a wake-up call en masse, how much energy usage could drop if we only would use it when necessary. But how to get people so far as to reduce their unnecessary energy usage. I have to admit that I'm still part of the problem. Currently, I drive a leased (through work, so it doesn't cost me a dime) Mitsubishi Grandis, which is a big, heavy MPV. At the end of the year, the lease contract will expire and I will switch to a much smaller Volkswagen Lupo 3L. It is literally twice as efficient and will actually earn me money. The amount I receive from my employer will be about twice the costs. (Yes, I need a car, because my clients are all over Holland. I would love to bike to work, but it's simply not possible. Going by train works with some clients who are close to railway stations.)
@HSpencer: I would love (and am thinking about) a small house on a plot of land. Problem is, Holland is a small, densely populated country, where land and houses (especially free-standing ones) are very expensive. Add to that the geographical distribution of work, mainly in the west of the country, and you get very expensive houses in the west, close to available work, and very cheap houses with lots of land in the east, were there is less work. Living in the east and working in the west is pretty much impossible because of traffic, despite the small distances.
Hi Q,
It's actually not always that excellent. I've worked at several places where say a 1 hour commute by car would be a 2,5 hour commute by public transport. Lots of offices are located on industrial or office parks that are outside of the city (so no proximity to railway stations) and are not served very well by bus lines.
It's actually not always that excellent. I've worked at several places where say a 1 hour commute by car would be a 2,5 hour commute by public transport. Lots of offices are located on industrial or office parks that are outside of the city (so no proximity to railway stations) and are not served very well by bus lines.