10 years of IEA outlooks

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Sclass
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Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by Sclass »

Unconventional oil has always been around. Steaming, CO2 flood, water flood are just a few prior examples of enhanced production. Horizontal drilling and multiple frac jobs are just the latest tool. The scary thing to me is that this is just looking at the enhanced production side of the coin affecting the looming peak (the peak being a question of when not how).

Nobody ever talks about the advances in exploration. The industry is searching much harder for smaller and smaller plays. The exploration tools have influenced the efficacy of finding a new pocket. This is misleading to the general public because it looks like business as usual when in actuality we are searching harder and harder for less and less. The key detail is how we are finding new discoveries and what exactly we are finding.

A striking parallel is large scale fishing. Catches were level through the 90s but few researchers looked at exactly how the rates were being maintained. The big players used more and more technology to catch the same amount of fish. A very bad sign.

All this is allowing the world population to grow to a point where colony collapse may be abrupt and catastrophic. Pile in climate change and the potential of suddenly releasing large amounts of methane from hydrates and permafrost into the air is enough for me to lose sleep tonight. All so my neighbors can drive their hybrid SUVs, run their AC off their expensive solar panels, have green grass from chemical fertilizer, and go on exotic vacations to the costa rican rain forest because this is what environmentally conscious yuppies do. Bah.

As for OPEC pricing, conspiracy theories abound. We will know more next week. The most interesting I've heard is Saudi is lowering prices to limit the power of its neighboring OPEC members. They seem to be under pressure from the north and south politically. Like I totally missed in the news that the Yemeni capital was recently taken over recently?

Big things happening in the world that we won't really understand well till it is too late. Goodnight.

Stahlmann
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Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:05 pm

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by Stahlmann »

How about current situation?
Why do guys behind ,,Limits of Growth" ,,make" a mistake on oil prediction?
On ERE blog there is info that we peaked, but the data shows that the trend is going up. I speak about total oil extraction. I know, looking at one picture at wikipedia is not doing science.
I get it that fossils fuels are limited, our demands as humanity not so much.
Is it somehow conspiracy?
Will they try to bump it time to time?

Campitor
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Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:49 am

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by Campitor »

From what I've read on oil, as little as 30% of it is extracted from existing wells because of the expense. The well is capped and only reopened when the price of oil makes the cost of extracting the remaining oil desirable or if new technology is invented which makes the cost of extraction profitable at the current cost per barrel.

I would love to abandon fossil fuels for cleaner/renewable sources but as long as oil companies continue to work on technologies that lower the cost of extraction, I fear we will continue to use carbon based energy sources from existing wells until renewables reach the equivalent energy density and cost of oil or if the cost of oil makes the energy density and cost of renewables attractive. The top 25 oil companies made 2.6 trillion dollars in 12 months per Forbes. I seriously doubt oil companies will abandon that type of cheddar. The petrol industry will go down swinging but hopefully they won't take the rest of us with them.

ducknalddon
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by ducknalddon »

Interestingly the UK generated nearly 25% of its energy from solar today. I wonder what demand will look like over the coming decades.

cmonkey
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Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by cmonkey »

The UK has nothing on Midamerican Iowa. 89% renewable by year end 2019. Buffet owned, I might add.

Dragline
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Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by Dragline »

Having grown up there, that's pretty cool -- kind of like a breeze, heh, heh. But knowing Iowa, the extra wind energy will be sold to ADM so that they can make more ethanol out of corn! :lol:

vexed87
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Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:02 am
Location: Yorkshire, UK

Re: 10 years of IEA outlooks

Post by vexed87 »

ducknalddon wrote:
Fri May 26, 2017 12:29 pm
I wonder what demand will look like over the coming decades.
Try reading some JMG, here he explains why we are likely we to see lots of demand destruction over the next decade.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.u ... rrels.html

As the proportion of oil coming from marginal extraction techniques increases relative to conventional supply, prices are bound to rise and more and more people will be squeezed out of participation in industrial society, forcing them to change their lifestyles in ways which will centre around the use of much less energy, mostly renewable. The more renewable energy production we can install between now and 'then' will likely determine how painful the immediate transition will be.

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